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Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

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kristiang85

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This source: Why are older people more at risk of coronavirus? (theconversation.com) suggests the risk of dying from Covid in the 40-49 age bracket if unvaccinated is 0.4% i.e. 4000 per million.

This is from March 17th 2020 (the day I was sent home from work!) when we only had limited data, and zero natural immunity in the population. I haven't seen numbers anywhere near that high for that age group since it has been more understood.

If you can find data from December 2020 (i.e. just before the vaccination programme kicked in), or indeed current data in non-vaccinatedo only, that would be more useful. And even then you need to know the co-morbidities for a better picture.
 
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Towers

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If I may say so, that's a highly emotive framing of the argument, from which I have deliberately refrained. Of course these individual deaths are terrible, but they say nothing about the relative risk of vaccination side effects compared to being unvaccinated. There are many media articles about people who have refused to be vaccinated and then died from Covid, but I refrained from posting them as I don't want to engage in that sort of emotive argument.

You have presented media reports of the few extremely rare occurrences of deaths due to vaccine complications. They have been well publicised; you're not sharing anything that's new to me. It is natural for news organisations to focus on these cases, because they are rare and therefore newsworthy. Meanwhile hundreds of people are dying from Covid every day, but that is no longer news. As an analogy, rail travel is very safe compared to roads, but when there's a rail accident the media present it as headline news, because it is so rare. Meanwhile the daily deaths on roads remain largely unreported. Yet there is no doubt that rail travel is safer than road travel.

This source: COVID-19 vaccination and blood clotting (publishing.service.gov.uk) suggests the risk of clotting is 10 per million.

This source: Why are older people more at risk of coronavirus? (theconversation.com) suggests the risk of dying from Covid in the 40-49 age bracket if unvaccinated is 0.4% i.e. 4000 per million.

Even if these sources were out by an order of magnitude, it would still be far less risky to get vaccinated.

Anyway, I think I've said all that can be usefully said on this. I hope the information I have presented will assist you in assessing the relative risks dispassionately.
Indeed, arguments as opposed to debate are of no use to any of us! There will always be differing views around this, and it is important that we respect those held by our fellow citizens of course.

I would make a final comment though, if I may, on your chosen analogy. It is hardly the case here that the media are promoting deaths from vaccines whilst surpressing reports of Covid deaths, which I presume is what you are suggesting? Quite the opposite, in fact. Tested positive? Hit by a bus on the way home? Covid! Etc.

Anyhow, let us all hope that this wave passes swiftly and without claiming too many victims.
 

Bikeman78

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Once again they are contradicting themselves. In one breath they are saying that additional restrictions and Wales and Scotland have made no difference, in the next they are saying that working from home will have an impact. But Wales and Scotland already has that and it makes no difference. What am I missing?


Masks are unlikely to halt the spread of the omicron variant, an Oxford professor warned as face coverings were reintroduced on public transport and in shops.

However, Jim Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute and professor of structural biology at the University of Oxford, said mask mandates had done little to prevent the spread of the delta variant in Scotland and were unlikely to stop omicron.

Scotland kept its mask rules after lifting restrictions in the summer, with coverings mandatory in shops and public transport as well as in schools and when not seated pubs and restaurants.

Despite the rules, the country saw a surge of Covid infections in the autumn, similar to rises seen in England.
Prof Naismith said: "The Office for National Statistics survey results on prevalence shows that the Scottish and English approach to masking, although formally different since July, has made no meaningful difference to delta.


"In both countries, very high levels of prevalence have continued for months. Thus the new changes announced are unlikely to have much of an impact if omicron does indeed spread rapidly."

Experts remain divided on how much impact face masks have in preventing the spread of Covid. Some believe they are only useful when social distancing cannot be maintained, while others think they prevent the picking up of virus particles in the air even when people are not close.

Robert Dingwall, a professor of sociology at Nottingham Trent University and a former government Covid adviser, said: "We can certainly say with confidence that all the extra restrictions in those nations do not seem to be having much effect, given that the trajectory of infections does not differ markedly from that in England.

"However, we cannot then go on to single out one element and draw conclusions about that. Mask mandates are only one part of the package, and the comparisons often lack details about enforcement and compliance.

"I hear, for example, that Aberdeen is much more relaxed than either Glasgow or Edinburgh – and I suspect that once you get into smaller towns there is very little going on.

"In my view, the only thing that really has an impact on transmission is working from home and reducing social contacts altogether, but the Government is desperate not to stall the back to the office movement."
 

quantinghome

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This is from March 17th 2020 (the day I was sent home from work!) when we only had limited data, and zero natural immunity in the population. I haven't seen numbers anywhere near that high for that age group since it has been more understood.

If you can find data from December 2020 (i.e. just before the vaccination programme kicked in), or indeed current data in non-vaccinatedo only, that would be more useful. And even then you need to know the co-morbidities for a better picture.
Sure, hence my proviso about order of magnitude. Even if the risk of death due to Covid were 10 times lower, getting vaccinated would still be much less risky than not.
 

4-SUB 4732

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Sigh of relief in South Africa as Omicron variant appears to be ‘super mild‘ mutation with Covid death rate not jumping.


The WHO and Coronavirus experts are increasingly convinced the new Omicron variant is ‘super mild’ and has, so far, not led to a jump in Covid death rates anywhere in Southern Africa.

The WHO is calling this morning for countries to drop travel restrictions and end the mass hysteria, and instead be cautiously optimistic as more and more reports out of South Africa suggest the new Omicron variant is not more lethal than the previous Delta variant.

In fact, there have been no reports of hospitalisations or deaths as a result of anyone being diagnosed with Omicron.
 
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greyman42

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It could never happen to the same extent here, but it is frightening how much we have accepted Chinese-style authoritarianism in this country.
Some people seemed happy to accept lockdowns providing it meant work from home or furlough.

I think they are suggesting that. I would suggest people do as much socialising as they want to do and to ignore any such suggestion.
Agreed. I will not be changing any of my plans and there will be plenty of shoulder to shoulder drinking.
 

jumble

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As one who has always used disposable masks, I do not understand what you mean by using the term of "face nappy".

If a baby were to wear a nappy composed of the same material as that of a disposable mask, what do think a soiled nappy would look like?
I understand perfectly
A nappy is used by someone who is has to be treated like a baby as they are not perceived as capable of making correct decisions at the appropriate time.
The Government treats us the same by believing we are not capable of making decisions on completely empty open air platforms but needs to be bossed about with the threat of a fine if we do not comply
( Why they do not do this at bus stops is anyones guess as it makes as much sense as the empty platform)
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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The Government treats us the same by believing we are not capable of making decisions on completely empty open air platforms but needs to be bossed about with the threat of a fine if we do not comply
( Why they do not do this at bus stops is anyones guess as it makes as much sense as the empty platform)
A bus stop is usually situated on a pavement/roadside area on a public highway whereas a railway station platform is part of the railway station and I am sure in the book of railway by-laws that there will be something to cover the matter that you have raised.
 

jumble

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A bus stop is usually situated on a pavement/roadside area on a public highway whereas a railway station platform is part of the railway station and I am sure in the book of railway by-laws that there will be something to cover the matter that you have raised.
Thanks for explaining this to me.
 

Bayum

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I don’t like Boris one bit but he’s absolutely correct on this occasion. Do you have any idea how damaging Harries’ statement is? And why is she going to the media in the first place? Boris rarely knows best but he has a country to run and non-covid matters to consider (as incredible as the latter may sound!).
With all due respect, an expert in public health vs the Prime Minister. If social contact is reduced before Christmas, less spread and less concern about Omicron variant. She’s not saying to isolate in households or have no contact with anyone until the end of March. Just a simple matter of fact statement that it would help keep numbers down and reduce spread. Boris might have a country to run but at what cost?
 

Yew

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Sigh of relief in South Africa as Omicron variant appears to be ‘super mild‘ mutation with Covid death rate not jumping.


The WHO and Coronavirus experts are increasingly convinced the new Omicron variant is ‘super mild’ and has, so far, not led to a jump in Covid death rates anywhere in Southern Africa.

The WHO is calling this morning for countries to drop travel restrictions and end the mass hysteria, and instead be cautiously optimistic as more and more reports out of South Africa suggest the new Omicron variant is not more lethal than the previous Delta variant.


In fact, there have been no reports of hospitalisations or deaths as a result of anyone being diagnosed with Omicron.
I can't say that I've ever heard of the source, and I'm dubious of the use of the vague term 'coronavirus experts'; but it'd certainly be good news if true.
 

greyman42

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With all due respect, an expert in public health vs the Prime Minister. If social contact is reduced before Christmas, less spread and less concern about Omicron variant. She’s not saying to isolate in households or have no contact with anyone until the end of March. Just a simple matter of fact statement that it would help keep numbers down and reduce spread. Boris might have a country to run but at what cost?
So are you suggesting that we re-introduce furlough and working from home advice for a virus that may well be near harmless?
 

Jonny

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A bus stop is usually situated on a pavement/roadside area on a public highway whereas a railway station platform is part of the railway station and I am sure in the book of railway by-laws that there will be something to cover the matter that you have raised.
I seem to recall TfL claiming jurisdiction over bus shelters, which is a lot of bus stops, in their byelaws, and it would not surprise me if they tried to ^claim^ bus stops, even on the public highway.

Here's a quote from the Transport for London Road Transport Premises Byelaws, last paragraph on page 10.
“premises” means road transport garages, depots, bus stations, shelters and other road transport premises now or hereafter belonging to, leased to or worked by the Operator and the approaches thereto;
Full document at: https://content.tfl.gov.uk/road-transport-premises-byelaws.pdf , Relevant section quoted above.
 

brad465

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Sigh of relief in South Africa as Omicron variant appears to be ‘super mild‘ mutation with Covid death rate not jumping.


The WHO and Coronavirus experts are increasingly convinced the new Omicron variant is ‘super mild’ and has, so far, not led to a jump in Covid death rates anywhere in Southern Africa.

The WHO is calling this morning for countries to drop travel restrictions and end the mass hysteria, and instead be cautiously optimistic as more and more reports out of South Africa suggest the new Omicron variant is not more lethal than the previous Delta variant.


In fact, there have been no reports of hospitalisations or deaths as a result of anyone being diagnosed with Omicron.
If that materialises that's a very sudden change in tone from the WHO in a good way.
 

Jonny

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So are you suggesting that we re-introduce furlough and working from home advice for a virus that may well be near harmless?

Some people would like that, but we have to accept that if we had a bad 'flu season the total fatalities would be greater than the daily headline covid death statistics (and they are people dying with covid, rather than of). Everyone has had a chance to get one, and the boosters are coming on the early side for those who want them. It is time to get used to it.
 

Towers

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What laws they have in Greece has no bearing on us so there is nothing to be frightened off.

And closer it gets...

From the BBC:

"It's time for EU member states to consider making Covid vaccinations mandatory, says the European Commission president. Ursula von der Leyen says: "This needs a common approach, but it is a discussion that I think has to be led".
 

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greyman42

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And closer it gets...

From the BBC:

"It's time for EU member states to consider making Covid vaccinations mandatory, says the European Commission president. Ursula von der Leyen says: "This needs a common approach, but it is a discussion that I think has to be led".
How is it any closer? We thankfully are not part of the EU any more and Sajid Javid has made it clear we would not go down this road.
 

brad465

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How is it any closer? We thankfully are not part of the EU any more and Sajid Javid has made it clear we would not go down this road.
I think her announcement makes mandatory vaccination here even less likely as our Brexit ideology wouldn't tolerate it.
 

Towers

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How is it any closer? We thankfully are not part of the EU any more and Sajid Javid has made it clear we would not go down this road.
I sincerely hope he sticks to that. Unfortunately that isn't a particular strength of this government.

I think her announcement makes mandatory vaccination here even less likely as our Brexit ideology wouldn't tolerate it.
Hmm. I think "because Covid" trumps "because Brexit", currently.

Hopefully we won't see such nonsense here. However, clearly the further it creeps elsewhere, the more it becomes acceptable from a global perspective, the more likely something similar becomes for the UK. It was just faraway Greece earlier today. By next week it may be most of the EU. It does make you think. At the moment we seem to be the exception; we opened up early on and have been reasonably liberal with the reissuing of freedoms, and of course Boris has rejected Covid passports (just, at the last minute, after saying we were having them...) - but then again his colleagues elsewhere in the UK haven't. So nothing is cast iron!
 
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scarby

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And closer it gets...

From the BBC:

"It's time for EU member states to consider making Covid vaccinations mandatory, says the European Commission president. Ursula von der Leyen says: "This needs a common approach, but it is a discussion that I think has to be led".
Not any of hope of that as the European Commission has completely failed in establishing a common approach to the pandemic among the EU member states for the past 20 months. When is she handing in her resignation?
 

Towers

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Not any of hope of that as the European Commission has completely failed in establishing a common approach to the pandemic among the EU member states for the past 20 months. When is she handing in her resignation?
The same time as Boris?! :D
 

Caboose Class

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A scam email relating to ordering a PCR Test for the Omicron variant of Covid is circulating around in the UK. Several Trading Standards groups have sent out warnings telling people not to click the link on such emails, which goes to a fake NHS website.
 

21C101

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The sensible way forward is to seek out scientific advice and act accordingly - that means coming to conclusions not from forums like this, not from friends and family, not from social media, but from the actual scientists who have spend their entire careers assessing vaccine risk.
Can I buy indulgences from scientists too. Asking for a friend?
 

takno

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And closer it gets...

From the BBC:

"It's time for EU member states to consider making Covid vaccinations mandatory, says the European Commission president. Ursula von der Leyen says: "This needs a common approach, but it is a discussion that I think has to be led".
She has been a generally pretty useless appointment from the moment she started. No realistic chance of this being agreed at all. Interesting that politicians can't see that this kind of discussion only puts people off having jabs. Boris's end of January target for boosters must make it almost irresistible to put the booster off until after then, and Von Der leyens position is likely to similarly harden hearts against it.
 

Jonny

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A scam email relating to ordering a PCR Test for the Omicron variant of Covid is circulating around in the UK. Several Trading Standards groups have sent out warnings telling people not to click the link on such emails, which goes to a fake NHS website.

That is pretty low, given the intended target. I doubt that I would even follow through on a real one.
 
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