Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[Simon11]

More scare mongering from the BBC where they fail to mention the actual number of cases. An increase of say 1 to 3 cases per hospital can easily be called a significant increase but has no impact in hospital operations…

Hospitals are facing a significant increase in the number of people being admitted with the Omicron variant of coronavirus, England's chief medical officer has warned.
Prof Chris Whitty's comments came as the UK recorded 59,610 new Covid cases, the highest number since January.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Away from the voting results for a moment, the Guardian have an article reporting how Sunak is apparently concerned about the financial costs of the booster programme, which suggests he won't support it beyond the current round of boosters, even if it has to be kept up for new variants. The reported cost is £5bn a year, and also talking about proposals mentioned upthread to consider using the NI tax hike to help finance it:

Sunak warns over multibillion cost of booster programme

Exclusive: Chancellor said to not have opposed jab regime but warned of spending cuts or tax rises to pay for it

www.theguardian.com

Perhaps people pay for their own in future. Once you become accustomed to complying, to showing your covid-pass at so many events, you won't want to lose that functionality by slipping into an unvaccinated status, so you pay for boosters. £20 in 2022, £40 in 2023. Kerching. I smell profit. Look how much people are prepared to pay for the tests needed to travel abroad - it's not all essential trips to elderly relatives.

 

[Cdd89]

Hypothetically, of course, if I were cooped up with a view of a concrete multi-storey car park and decided to make a break for it, firstly would or could anyone stop me with any legal force, other than the police?

The people in quarantine hotels are not mostly people like you or I. Anyone with the choice would cool off in a neutral country and enter after 10 days, as the UK incentivise, saving everyone a lot of money.

Sadly, they are disproportionately those with fewer rights in terms of status or citizenship, and for whom the UK hotel quarantine is their only practical option. For the same reason, they are less likely to challenge the process or treatment.

 

[takno]

The people in quarantine hotels are not mostly people like you or I. Anyone with the choice would cool off in a neutral country and enter after 10 days, as the UK incentivise, saving everyone a lot of money.

Sadly, they are disproportionately those with fewer rights in terms of status or citizenship, and for whom the UK hotel quarantine is their only practical option. For the same reason, they are less likely to challenge the process or treatment.

Do you have a reference for that? Most people I've seen coughing up thousands of quid to stay in them are very ordinary British people. Anybody with weaker ties to the UK would likely just not have come

 

[Simon11]

Do you have a reference for that? Most people I've seen coughing up thousands of quid to stay in them are very ordinary British people. Anybody with weaker ties to the UK would likely just not have come

My sister visited plenty of countries over the last year and if there was restrctioms coming home to UK where she would have to isolate at an expensive hotel, she would simply go to a neutral country.

She ended up going to places like Dubai, Greece and Maldives saving thousands and getting to extend her travel to beautiful places. I dont understand why anyone would choose to isolate in a UK hotel room for 10 days at a crazy price!

 

[Cdd89]

Do you have a reference for that? Most people I've seen coughing up thousands of quid to stay in them are very ordinary British people

The ordinary British people are the ones on the BBC moaning about the treatment, I’ll expect. Nope, no reference; it’s a surmision based on 1) having walked past a lot of these and seen the residents walking an exercise parade outdoors, primarily not of European descent (yes; I know), and 2) the fact that anyone with the choice would be insane to do so (and most U.K. citizens have choices).

Anybody with weaker ties to the UK would likely just not have come

Plenty of people in the UK, especially from typical red listed countries with a need to visit them, who have residence but not citizenship, nor passports conducive to tourist visits in other countries. I’ll wager that’s the main clientele.

 

[Jimini]

More scare mongering from the BBC where they fail to mention the actual number of cases. An increase of say 1 to 3 cases per hospital can easily be called a significant increase but has no impact in hospital operations…

Hospitals are facing a significant increase in the number of people being admitted with the Omicron variant of coronavirus, England's chief medical officer has warned.
Prof Chris Whitty's comments came as the UK recorded 59,610 new Covid cases, the highest number since January.

Positive cases up 12.1%. Tests carried out up 12.4%. Pretty pathetic messaging from the BBC as always -- but no surprise sadly.

 

[initiation]

I am now resigned to the fact we have restrictions incoming. It sees unavoidable. I encourage everyone who wants to, to go out while you can and enjoy the pub or whatever social activity you like. I really hope I am resoundly proven wrong but I just can't see it.

The most depressing thing is that if Omicron is truly as transmissable as some are suggesting, this whole thing will be over in a matter of 2-3 weeks - just in time for restrictions to coincide with a natural decline and everyone to jump and shout that restrictions saved the day. Of course if it is not as transmissable then there is not really a problem.

The government was almost doing well holding out until mid-November then it went to pot (despite cases, hospitalisations and deaths not dramatically changing). It is not the actions or mentality of a government who plan to implement "Operation Rampdown" in 3 months time.

I am not looking forward to January.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Positive cases up 12.1%. Tests carried out up 12.4%. Pretty pathetic messaging from the BBC as always -- but no surprise sadly.

Newsnight was more balanced reporting positive data from Sth Africa along with UKHSA much more gloomy forecast.

Problem now is the whole thing is locked in for the boosters so they have to heap on the negative news otherwise its mot just govt that look bad. Of course if it now turns out that the initial SA data has legs then they will either claim credit that it was the booster than dun it.

 

[Eyersey468]

I am now resigned to the fact we have restrictions incoming. It sees unavoidable. I encourage everyone who wants to, to go out while you can and enjoy the pub or whatever social activity you like. I really hope I am resoundly proven wrong but I just can't see it.

The most depressing thing is that if Omicron is truly as transmissable as some are suggesting, this whole thing will be over in a matter of 2-3 weeks - just in time for restrictions to coincide with a natural decline and everyone to jump and shout that restrictions saved the day. Of course if it is not as transmissable then there is not really a problem.

The government was almost doing well holding out until mid-November then it went to pot (despite cases, hospitalisations and deaths not dramatically changing). It is not the actions or mentality of a government who plan to implement "Operation Rampdown" in 3 months time.

I am not looking forward to January.

Nor am I, it feels to me as though we are stuck in this cycle of restrictions forever now.

 

[brad465]

I am now resigned to the fact we have restrictions incoming. It sees unavoidable. I encourage everyone who wants to, to go out while you can and enjoy the pub or whatever social activity you like. I really hope I am resoundly proven wrong but I just can't see it.

This particular point is one thing that doesn't get thought about when restrictions are either brought in and/or the perception they will be is widely believed. Everyone suddenly gets things out of the way that restrictions would prevent, such that any reduction in transmission brought about by restrictions, all else being conducive for infection increases, would be cancelled out at least partially. I suspect a similar effect can exist when restrictions are relaxed and people catch up afterwards.

The most depressing thing is that if Omicron is truly as transmissable as some are suggesting, this whole thing will be over in a matter of 2-3 weeks - just in time for restrictions to coincide with a natural decline and everyone to jump and shout that restrictions saved the day. Of course if it is not as transmissable then there is not really a problem.

The government was almost doing well holding out until mid-November then it went to pot (despite cases, hospitalisations and deaths not dramatically changing). It is not the actions or mentality of a government who plan to implement "Operation Rampdown" in 3 months time.

I am not looking forward to January.

During an apparent escalation like this, time always seems to move really slowly, which is not pleasant. The same happened in March 2020. While lockdowns are not pleasant or sustainable, at least then once the situation was stable time sped up again.

Deaths are actually on a downward trend at the moment, despite reported cases going up for over a month now. Hospitalisations are though going up, but again we don't know how much that is due to people going into hospital with covid or catching it there. Numbers in hospital with covid are also less than half where they were this time last year, and even less than the mid-January peak (although better comparisons with that point can be made next month).

 

[MikeWM]

Nor am I, it feels to me as though we are stuck in this cycle of restrictions forever now.

I don't think we'll stay in a *cycle* forever.

I've long suspected that once the government permission papers ('vaccine passports') are part of everyday life and been made permanent for most activities, and we've had long enough to get used to them, the 'reason' for them will finally drift into the background. The 'permission papers' will stay, of course.

 

[asw22]

I am now resigned to the fact we have restrictions incoming. It sees unavoidable. I encourage everyone who wants to, to go out while you can and enjoy the pub or whatever social activity you like. I really hope I am resoundly proven wrong but I just can't see it.

The most depressing thing is that if Omicron is truly as transmissable as some are suggesting, this whole thing will be over in a matter of 2-3 weeks - just in time for restrictions to coincide with a natural decline and everyone to jump and shout that restrictions saved the day. Of course if it is not as transmissable then there is not really a problem.

The government was almost doing well holding out until mid-November then it went to pot (despite cases, hospitalisations and deaths not dramatically changing). It is not the actions or mentality of a government who plan to implement "Operation Rampdown" in 3 months time.

I am not looking forward to January.

I too was getting a bit more hopeful that we could make it further than November especially as September's hospital cases were around 8 times what they were 1 year previously and nothing happened. (Sept 2021 hospital cases dropped below Sept 2020 cases towards the end of Sept 2021).

One of the ironies is that people are encouraged to work from home where they can, yet the long queues at vaccine centres would seem a natural way to spread covid and this never seems to be mentioned (this happened to a neighbour who had been shielding only to catch covid at a vaccination centre earlier this year).

 

[bramling]

I too was getting a bit more hopeful that we could make it further than November especially as September's hospital cases were around 8 times what they were 1 year previously and nothing happened. (Sept 2021 hospital cases dipped below Sept 2020 cases towards the end of Sept 2021).

One of the ironies is that people are encouraged to work from home where they can, yet the long queues at vaccine centres would seem a natural way to spread covid and this never seems to be mentioned (this happened to a neighbour who had been shielding only to catch covid at a vaccination centre).

The point about vaccination centres is interesting. My neighbour reports turning up (with appointment), having to queue in a corridor for about 45 minutes, then having to sit in an indoor waiting area for nearly 2 hours, complete with people coughing and sneezing all over the show.

 

[asw22]

The point about vaccination centres is interesting. My neighbour reports turning up (with appointment), having to queue in a corridor for about 45 minutes, then having to sit in an indoor waiting area for nearly 2 hours, complete with people coughing and sneezing all over the show.

Sounds like it could be happening a lot.

 

[brad465]

When Hancock said 15 million jabs to freedom, maybe what he forgot to add was per person.

 

[Freightmaster]

More scare mongering from the BBC...

Imagine my surprise a few minutes ago when I saw that the latest BBC Covid story
was not scaremongering fear porn:

Omicron: Why tougher Covid measures may not be worth it

Omicron is expected to cause a surge in infections. Should more be done to suppress it?

www.bbc.co.uk

...I knew who the author must be before I even clicked on it - good old Nick!





MARK

 

[DelayRepay]

Hospitalisations are though going up, but again we don't know how much that is due to people going into hospital with covid or catching it there. Numbers in hospital with covid are also less than half where they were this time last year, and even less than the mid-January peak (although better comparisons with that point can be made next month).

I know this point has been made before but it's worth making again. The numbers are 'with Covid', not 'because of Covid'. If there is more Covid in the general population, then it follows that more people going into hospital for any reason are likely to have Covid.

If you get run over, but test positive for Covid when you arrive at hospital, you'll be counted as in hospital with Covid even though it's not Covid that's put you there and you're not receiving any treatment for Covid.

 

[philosopher]

I too was getting a bit more hopeful that we could make it further than November especially as September's hospital cases were around 8 times what they were 1 year previously and nothing happened. (Sept 2021 hospital cases dropped below Sept 2020 cases towards the end of Sept 2021).

One of the ironies is that people are encouraged to work from home where they can, yet the long queues at vaccine centres would seem a natural way to spread covid and this never seems to be mentioned (this happened to a neighbour who had been shielding only to catch covid at a vaccination centre earlier this year).

To be fair the government did successfully resist frequent demands, mostly from some SAGE members and the Labour Party in October to implement Plan B. Until this new variant arrived, I was quite hopeful we would make the whole winter without restrictions being tightened.

 

[brad465]

Based on the size of the Tory rebellion yesterday, I think we have now reached the point where Johnson has to choose between implementing further restrictions and remaining Prime Minister. At what level this choice becomes reality is unknown, but I think having a lockdown would definitely be at least that threshold point.

 

[jfollows]

The government today has promised that Parliament will be recalled if there is a need for further restrictions over Christmas.
This looks like continuing incompetence in that many MPs yesterday asked for assurances that this would happen, but Sajid Javid and others waffled in response, and apparently Boris Johnson was also vague in his meeting of the 1922 Committee.
Now that it's been decided, it's too late to influence some MPs who might have voted for the government yesterday had the assurance been given then.

 

[Spamcan81]

The point about vaccination centres is interesting. My neighbour reports turning up (with appointment), having to queue in a corridor for about 45 minutes, then having to sit in an indoor waiting area for nearly 2 hours, complete with people coughing and sneezing all over the show.

Whereas a friend of mine turned up for his booster and was in and out in 17 minutes, including the 15 minutes wait after the jab.

 

[yorksrob]

To be fair, mine was turned around in about seventeen minutes yesterday as well. This was at a newly opened vaccination place, so I may have got in early on the bookings !

 

[jfollows]

Reports now that people are risking £10,000 fines by leaving their places of quarantine: (https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ccines-christmas-boris-johnson-latest-updates)

3m ago10:09

Ben Bradshaw asks what is happening to people still in quarantine hotels, now that the countries they arrived from have been taken off the red list.
Jonathan Mogford, the official in charge of borders policy at the UK Health Security Agency, says in the past people how started a period of quarantine had to complete it.
Now, because Omicron has spread so quickly, they want to release people from quarantine. He says they are expecting to confirm that today.
In the meantime people are being asked to remain in their quarantine hotels, Mogford says.
Bradshaw says there are reports that people are just leaving, even though they are theoretically at risk of a £10,000 fine for doing so.

(Session of evidence to Commons Transport Committee)
This is a complete shambles and just demonstrates how nobody thinks through implications of actions properly, basically there are no competent adults running our country.

 

[greyman42]

Positive cases up 12.1%. Tests carried out up 12.4%. Pretty pathetic messaging from the BBC as always -- but no surprise sadly.

Could anyone tell me why, when the BBC do their daily Covid statistics on their news programmes, they have stopped showing hospitalisations?

 

[kristiang85]

It should be noted among all this fearmongering that, although it may change in a couple of days, that we still haven't reached the positive tests number of 15th July, a few days before restrictions were completely relaxed - and this is despite 25% more testing right now.

Also hospitalisations are roughtly around the same as that time as well.

 

[initiation]

It should be noted among all this fearmongering that, although it may change in a couple of days, that we still haven't reached the positive tests number of 15th July, a few days before restrictions were completely relaxed - and this is despite 25% more testing right now.

Also hospitalisations are roughtly around the same as that time as well.

But cases are apparently doubling every 2 days. We are going to get Omicron several times each before January is out. We must lockdown to save Boris the NHS.

-

The Zoe app also shows a similar story re. not reaching the previous peak.

If you didn't know about covid and looked at current overall death and hospitalisation stats, you would likely conclude there was nothing that unusual for winter going on. The exception would be for the non-covid excess deaths at home that has been happening for months now, but are not reported.

 

[kristiang85]

If you didn't know about covid and looked at current overall death and hospitalisation stats, you would likely conclude there was nothing that unusual for winter going on.

Indeed. It isn't unusual at all. COVID has basically replaced the stats that 'flu would normally cause.

The exception would be for the non-covid excess deaths at home that has been happening for months now, but are not reported.

Now this is the scandal. I'm amazed no MPs are bringing this up.

 

[Class 33]

But cases are apparently doubling every 2 days. We are going to get Omicron several times each before January is out. We must lockdown to save Boris the NHS.

-

Absolutely NO to yet another pointless and wreckless damaging lockdown. They do more harm than good. The last lockdown must be the very last lockdown. Current evidence is that Omicron is only causing MILD cold like illness!

 

[Eyersey468]

Absolutely NO to yet another pointless and wreckless damaging lockdown. They do more harm than good. The last lockdown must be the very last lockdown. Current evidence is that Omicron is only causing MILD cold like illness!

I agree completely