Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[Train Maniac]

What you mean is we’re not all wetting ourselves in fear and therefore don’t believe the response is proportionate.

The discussions are largely very well informed with a lot of actual evidence presented and a lot of data broken down, interpreted and discussed in detail.

I have a serious question for you; how would you “detoxify” this part of the forum?

At the risk of digging a hole, what i was trying to say is any discussion on Covid always seems to descend into a yelling match (both on here and IRL). On a personal level it doesnt do my mental health much good reading through these threads but its the only way to avoid all the political propaganda bull s**t on the mainstream news, while on here actual discussion on what matters take place

Does that make sense?

 

[adc82140]

Interesting paper from ex-vivo (human tissue) studies about Omicron. It appears to replicate more easily in the Bronchus (windpipe) and less easily in the lungs. Perhaps explaining the perceived milder symptoms?

View attachment 107033

HKUMed finds Omicron SARS-CoV-2 can infect faster and better than Delta in human bronchus but with less severe infection in lung - News | HKUMed

Would that account for the widely reported sore throat with Omicron?

 

[Simon11]

60 positives out of 600 passengers on that flight from South Africa to Amsterdam.

Is that figure 1%-3% of the 5% ie a very small number or 5% positive of which 3% are Omicron and 2% Delta/others?

5,000 guests of which 5% positive = 250 guests. 250 guests of which 3% Omicron variety positive = 7.5 guests with Omicron.
or
5,000 guests of which 5% positive = 250 guests. 250 guests of which 150 with Omicron, 100 with Delta/others.

Rather a difference, like the difference between 10 in hospital with Omicron and 250. Dominic Raab looking at you!

Its quite clear to me that it should be your first calculation. Looking at the original quote below, note "of those".

Speaking to the Transport Select Committee on Wednesday, he said the latest figures suggested about 5% of people in the hotels had tested positive for Covid. Of those, between 1% and 3% had Omicron.

 

[DustyBin]

At the risk of digging a hole, what i was trying to say is any discussion on Covid always seems to descend into a yelling match (both on here and IRL). On a personal level it doesnt do my mental health much good reading through these threads but its the only way to avoid all the political propaganda bull s**t on the mainstream news, while on here actual discussion on what matters take place

Does that make sense?

Sorry my post wasn’t aimed at you, but yes I think I know what you mean. Generally the disagreements on here are respectful and people have even been known to acknowledge when they’re wrong, me included!

Whilst discussing covid constantly doesn’t do anybody's mental health any favours sometimes it’s good to talk.

 

[Freightmaster]

This forum does not have any well informed discussions on Covid at all.

Please define "well informed" in the context of discussions about the impact of Covid restrictions?

Toxic is a very apt word to describe this part of the forum.

And yet here you are...




MARK

 

[Yew]

Would that account for the widely reported sore throat with Omicron?

I can't say for certain, but it sounds possible.

Evolutionarily, this makes sense, as virus containing liquid located in the windpipe is more likely to be ejected and spread than in the lungs.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

Please define "well informed" in the context of discussions about the impact of Covid restrictions?

At a guess, "Lockdown now, Lockdown tomorrow, Lockdown forever"

 

[Chris125]

Woah, look at London's cases by specimen date!

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=London

13-12-2021 16,703
12-12-2021 10,624
11-12-2021 8,808
10-12-2021 9,379
09-12-2021 9,550
08-12-2021 9,327
07-12-2021 8,505
06-12-2021 8,153

 

[Yew]

PCR Positivity is still relatively flat, though showing signs of upward trends.

Testing in London | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)

 

[Simon11]

Woah, look at London's cases by specimen date!

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=London

Blimey!

I do think that Boris really should have spent less time on the vaccine passport which will make little difference and instead should really be closing schools for the last week of the term. Children aren't really learning much in the last week before Christmas!

 

[Chris125]

PCR Positivity is still relatively flat, though showing signs of upward trends.

For anyone unaware that only shows positivity up to the 10th (friday) to allow for late reporting - there's presumably been an increase in testing since the Boris speech, but that 16700 will surely grow further?

 

[Merseysider]

Children aren't really learning much in the last week before Christmas!

Bit of an incorrect generalisation there.

My colleagues and I are delivering normal lessons to all year groups every lesson up until we close as there is a clear attainment gap compared to previous cohorts which we are continuing to address.

I would hope the amount of schools choosing to do otherwise, allowing pupils to watch films all day, would be minimal.

 

[yorksrob]

Woah, look at London's cases by specimen date!

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=London

13-12-2021 16,703
12-12-2021 10,624
11-12-2021 8,808
10-12-2021 9,379
09-12-2021 9,550
08-12-2021 9,327
07-12-2021 8,505
06-12-2021 8,153

Various scientists have been saying that infections are doubling in less than two days, but these seem to be over a week !

 

[quantinghome]

Various scientists have been saying that infections are doubling in less than two days, but these seem to be over a week !

Omicron infections. @Chris125 is quoting data for total infections, of which Omicron is an increasing proportion. So we'd expect the doubling time to drop as Omicron becomes the dominant variant. Also the dataset is by specimen date, not reported date, so we'd expect the last two days' values to increase further over the next couple of days.

 

[yorksrob]

Omicron infections. @Chris125 is quoting data for total infections, of which Omicron is an increasing proportion. So we'd expect the doubling time to drop as Omicron becomes the dominant variant.

Ah thanks, that makes sense.

 

[adc82140]

London seemed to miss the worst of the last wave. It's catching up now, and due to the large population will drive some pretty big figures. It also has the lowest level of vaccine take up.

Breaking it down to my local authority (New Forest) the numbers remain flat.

Expect some even bigger figures over the next few days. This is going to shoot up, and will drop just as quickly. Also look at the heat map for England. These infections are mostly in kids and young adults. This won't translate into mass hospitalisations. Back in January when we were up at this level, the majority of infections were in the elderly, at the vaccine rollout was only just beginning.

The infection rate will be a problem for public services and the general workforce over the next few weeks due to sick days, but to paraphrase Prof Robert Dingwall, it won't bother the NHS or the undertakers.

They now need to stop reporting Omicron case numbers. It's dominant. Delta will be extinct in a week or two.

 

[Chris125]

This is why London is showing this crazy growth, but it's less obvious elsewhere - this is the proportion of sampled PCR tests showing the tell-tale for Omicron (S Gene Target Failure) for Saturday: https://twitter.com/AlastairGrant4/status/1470867202190368769

The percentages of specimens from 11th December that are SGTF by region so far are:

London 50%
East of England 25%
South East 23%
North West 19%
East Midlands 15%
South West 14%
West Midlands 13%
Yorkshire and Humber 11%
North East 6%

based on at least 400 specimens/region

 

[HSTEd]

The infection rate will be a problem for public services and the general workforce over the next few weeks due to sick days, but to paraphrase Prof Robert Dingwall, it won't bother the NHS or the undertakers.

Hopefullly we will end up with something resembling more the Hong Kong Flu of 1968 than last winter.

 

[kristiang85]

Hopefullly we will end up with something resembling more the Hong Kong Flu of 1968 than last winter.

Given the early data from South Africa, it could well be more like the Swine Flu of 2009.

 

[Chris125]

Ah thanks, that makes sense.

This should help visualise it: https://twitter.com/theosanderson/s...0?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

 

[quantinghome]

London seemed to miss the worst of the last wave. It's catching up now, and due to the large population will drive some pretty big figures. It also has the lowest level of vaccine take up.

Breaking it down to my local authority (New Forest) the numbers remain flat.

Expect some even bigger figures over the next few days. This is going to shoot up, and will drop just as quickly. Also look at the heat map for England. These infections are mostly in kids and young adults. This won't translate into mass hospitalisations. Back in January when we were up at this level, the majority of infections were in the elderly, at the vaccine rollout was only just beginning.

The infection rate will be a problem for public services and the general workforce over the next few weeks due to sick days, but to paraphrase Prof Robert Dingwall, it won't bother the NHS or the undertakers.

London, along with other major cities in England, had significantly lower infection levels consistently over the autumn. It didn't seem to matter what was happening elsewhere; these areas stayed low, most likely due to reaching endemic equilibrium for the delta variant.

The rapid increase seen in London (and starting to be seen elsewhere) strongly suggests Omicron can readily infect a population which was largely done with the earlier variants.

Infections in London are now increasing for all age groups, so it's unlikely this will be limited to kids and young adults.

We'd better hope reports of Omicron's reduced severity are true.


(Source: CasesByAge - Covid-19 (sonorouschocolate.com))

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

NHS England haven't updated hospital data today which usually comes out at 1400ish

 

[DanNCL]

NHS England haven't updated hospital data today which usually comes out at 1400ish

Surprise surprise, they don't want us knowing the facts ahead of a press conference where Boris will try claiming things are a million times worse than they actually are...

 

[adc82140]

London, along with other major cities in England, had significantly lower infection levels consistently over the autumn. It didn't seem to matter what was happening elsewhere; these areas stayed low, most likely due to reaching endemic equilibrium for the delta variant.

The rapid increase seen in London (and starting to be seen elsewhere) strongly suggests Omicron can readily infect a population which was largely done with the earlier variants.

Infections in London are now increasing for all age groups, so it's unlikely this will be limited to kids and young adults.

We'd better hope reports of Omicron's reduced severity are true.

View attachment 107040
(Source: CasesByAge - Covid-19 (sonorouschocolate.com))

Or the reports that the vaccines work to prevent serious illness and death. There will be a lot of infection in all age groups, but the elderly more than any other group are protected by the umbrella of the vaccine.

 

[Jonny]

Certainly agree with the video. There are plenty who call the libertarians vocal against covid restrictions but silent on the police bill et al. hypocrites, which I agree with. What I'm not hearing a lot of though is it's possible to be opposed to all draconian actions, covid or not covid, as I am.

I don't like the Police Bill but there is a screeching brigade that claim if you oppose one part, you oppose all of it. Getting the leverage to even say something is awkward.

I agree too. It's all part of a bigger and very disturbing picture, and it all needs to be opposed.

It's a shame that Monbiot has spent much of the last 2 years criticising 'lockdown sceptics' (for lack of a better term) and not realising the things he is talking about, and lockdown scepticism, are two sides of the same coin and we should be working together.

I think Monbiot bought the three weeks to flatten the curve Jim-Jones-juice and so might not want to have to roll back. He is also "on the left" and they seem to be mostly pro-restrictions (note the active support when they could have abstained).

 

[21C101]

I don't like the Police Bill but there is a screeching brigade that claim if you oppose one part, you oppose all of it. Getting the leverage to even say something is awkward.

I don't much like it but as far as I am concerned it couldn't happen to nicer people. I would rather the extreme protestors were charged with terrorism offences. I don't see a great deal of difference between blocking roads which stops emergencies getting to hospital and putting devices in litter bins.

A close relation recently cut himself in a life threatening way on glass (losing about a quarter of his blood). He was rushed to hospital fast (privately, they didn't wait to see if an ambulance would turn up). Had Extinction Rebellion blocked the road I suspect he would have died in fairly short order from blood loss.

 

[brad465]

PCR Positivity is still relatively flat, though showing signs of upward trends.

Testing in London | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)

Of course this is not where the focus is, it's on the record daily case count, even though that's been driven by a surge in testing demand so anyone who read between the lines of previous headlines saw this coming.

 

[quantinghome]

... the elderly more than any other group are protected by the umbrella of the vaccine.

They are. But this is a major test of the umbrella. Let's hope it holds. Too early to say yet what the outcome will be.

 

[MDB1images]

Imagine my surprise a few minutes ago when I saw that the latest BBC Covid story
was not scaremongering fear porn:

Omicron: Why tougher Covid measures may not be worth it

Omicron is expected to cause a surge in infections. Should more be done to suppress it?

www.bbc.co.uk

...I knew who the author must be before I even clicked on it - good old Nick!





MARK

The BBC(UK and on line)of late are awful.
It's stopped reporting facts and news and literally spins things the experts say to fit a narrative.
I have no idea why it's become like that and can only presume it's editorial decisions forcing this narrative, from a once reliable news organisation to a TV tabloid, it's a disgrace.

 

[brad465]

Presenting...A NEW THREE WORD SLOGAN!!!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59664383