Daily data has come through, still 90k of cases but still hardly much change to hospital and death figures. Looking at the hospital data over the last three months, so one battered at eye at the last peak in late oct, early Nov.
Cross fingers here it stays like this!
The rate at which cases are increasing seems to have plateaued over the past couple of days, but of course it is way too early to determine whether this is part of a long term trend.
The Daily Mail is saying the outbreak of Omicron in Gauteng Province, South Africa, has peaked after three weeks and is now falling, altough cases are still rising in the rest of the country.
I would think the same thing will happen in the UK, with cases peaking in London first before starting to fall, with other regions of the country following a few weeks later.
Indeed, taking a look at the figures for London, on 14th December the week on week rise in cases by specimen date was 205%, but on 16th December it is a little over 100%. There is the caveat that the figures for cases by specimen date will be updated in the next few days as more results come in, so it is much too early to see whether this is part of a long term trend. Nevertheless, when cases start to plateau (ie. rise at a slower rate) it is a sign that the virus is running out of new people to infect.
I just hope that the government can hold its nerve until the new year, when it should be clearer what the long term trends are, and in particular to ehat extent the increase in cases is going to lead to an increase in hospitalisations.
Because if there hasn't been a "surge" in hospitalisations by around January 3rd, then it will be clear that Omicron is not the threat to the NHS that was at first feared.
So I think the government is pursuing the right policy by waiting for more data before making a decision about any new restrictions.
