Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[Busaholic]

Only a small percentage of people in ICUs and hospital due to Covid are unvaccinated. Yes, proportionally the unvaccinated are overrepresented. But they make up such a small percentage of the population (and particularly those at "high" risk) that even if you imposed a lockdown on the unvaccinated, it would make very little difference to hospitals.

Seeing as we are on the subject - do you also have no time for people who smoke? Or drink? Or have an unhealthy lifestyle? After all, all these groups are overrepresented in hospital as well. But nobody is suggesting they should face restrictions "for the greater good".

The smoker with lung cancer or the chronic alcoholic with liver disease don't represent an existentialist threat to the people charged with giving them medical attention, or to other patients, a big difference. There have been many documented cases of surgeons refusing operations etc to patients who have either refused to adjust their lifestyles, or have proved unable to, whereas I've not heard of anyone being refused treatment for Covid infection because they've chosen non-vaccination. Maybe that will change, or the unvaccinated NHS staff are given the option of staying in their job and forming a 'bubble' just dealing with deliberately unvaccinated patients.

Your 'small percentage' of the population amounts to several million people, by the way, though I'm happy it's declining a little.

 

[21C101]

Agree. Vaccines and treatment are the key out of this thing.

Piers Corbyn is a dangerous idiot and to be honest 8f he caught Covid there’s a fair chance it would finish him off but expect his supporters to say it was all a conspiracy by Bill Gates or some other nonsense.

There is a novel about Nazi Occupied England.

The most hated man in the country is the head of the UK Gestapo.

Eventually, Germany loses. To public incredulity the said head of Gestapo instead of being put on trial is knighted and revealed to be an undercover spy.

It was called "All the Kings Men".

 

[nedchester]

Why stop there. Pehaps we should force parents who refuse to abort babies with down syndrome or other pre birth health issues like hole in the heart or cleft palette to pay for all the resultant healthcare the child subsequently needs, even if it bankrupts them?

I’d agree about the thin end of the wedge view and there’s the worry but if things get desperate then matters may change…….

 

[kez19]

MOST of the finding comes from general taxation.

NI pays mostly for benefits and pensions.

However as I quoted it states the NHS is funded by it or shall I just say it tops up that bit extra?

 

[21C101]

I’d agree about the thin end of the wedge view and there’s the worry but if things get desperate then matters may change…….

If it was something like Ebola, or a new equivalent of Polio that would have killed a third of the population or struck down children and maimed them; then, such extraordinary measures might be necessary.

The whole problem with the last two years is that something that is admittedly nasty, but statistically on a par with a bad flu year and mostly kills those already in poor health who would be dead within three years anyway is being treated like the black plague or ebola.

Particularly as the generation most at risk, the daughters and sons of those who went through and fought in World War 2, have only had their agreeable lives because millions of their parents generation sacrificed their lives. Now they want to ruin the lives of the generations who came after them (in the short term by locking them at home, in the long term by debt) so they can get an extra year or two of life. Unfortunately the government has pandered to this.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Piers Corbyn has released a new song

https://twitter.com/SikhForTruth/status/1472207261976178694

I don't think anyone is going to be persuaded by that. While I agree with Piers' views against restrictions and lockdowns, we need to be absolutely clear that vaccinations are absolutely key to accelerating our race to reach endemic equilibrium with Sars-CoV-2.

It one thing to say people have a right to choose whether to take a vaccine but quite another to actively encourage other people not to take it; to me that is a real anti-vax message and it's dangerous.

Vaccines are under attack from conspiracy theorists like Piers Corbyn on one side and the vaccine efficacy deniers (who believe in vaccination, or even mandatory vaccination, but argue that vaccines are not actually very good in order to justify restrictions) but I think most people are capable of making an informed choice.

His previous one, done on the underground, was bad enough. It appeared on my twitter without me wanting it. As you have given me the opportunity, I'll pass, thank you.

He is extreme in his views and people at the extreme are a menace. The ones standing and screaming outside abortion clinics (worked with one once) or the recent COVID ones attending schools and vaccination clinics need to wind their necks in. They are trying to force their opinions onto others, wholly unacceptable, just as turning up at someones house with an 'unvaccinated person lives in this house' placard would be unacceptable - but I see plenty of people on (anti)social media who would be well up for a good lynching.

People, trying to tell other people what they should or shouldn't do needs to stop. The vaccines should be easily available, the risks and benefits of having the vaccine (or not) on the individual and society as a whole should be explained in an informed manner.

 

[Mag_seven]

Now they want to ruin the lives of the generations who came after them (in the short term by locking them at home, in the long term by debt) so they can get an extra year or two of life.

I think its actually the children of people in their 80s and 90s that want us all locked up (because they are worried about their parents and they want their parents to live an extra couple of years) rather than the people in their 80s and 90s themselves. The most vociferous lockdown adherents have tended to be in the 30-55 age bracket.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

If it was something like Ebola, or a new equivalent of Polio that would have killed a third of the population or struck down children and maimed them; then, such extraordinary measures might be necessary.

The whole problem with the last two years is that something that is admittedly nasty, but statistically on a par with a bad flu year and mostly kills those already in poor health who would be dead within three years anyway is being treated like the black plague or ebola.

Particularly as the generation most at risk, the daughters and sons of those who went through and fought in World War 2, have only had their agreeable lives because millions of their parents generation sacrificed their lives. Now they want to ruin the lives of the generations who came after them (in the short term by locking them at home, in the long term by debt) so they can get an extra year or two of life. Unfortunately the government has pandered to this.

Ebola had a 100% success rate for some time. Definitely something to worry about even now.

I don't think that turning the debate into an inter-generational fued is helpful. Divide and conquer and all that. I don't think I've seen anything which supports the argument that 'the elderly' want to ruin the lives of those who come after them. After all it is their own children and grand-children that will be affected. The elderly have as little choice in the measures being inflicted on all of us as anyone else. They didn't go to the ballot box with a pen to support the manifesto promise 'when COVID comes along, stuff the young'.

Boris and co, as the decision makers, are at the age where they are the grand-children of the generation that made the sacrifices of WWII. My grandad fought, my dad had nothing to do with it, didn't even have National Service. A 16 year old, joining up the day before VE day in 1945, will be 92 now.

 

[yorkie]

His previous one, done on the underground, was bad enough. It appeared on my twitter without me wanting it. As you have given me the opportunity, I'll pass, thank you.

He is extre in his views and people at the extreme are a menace. The ones standing and screaming outside abortion clinics (worked with one once) or the recent COVID ones attending schools and vaccination clinics need to wind their necks in. They are trying to force their opinions onto others, wholly unacceptable, just as turning up at someones house with an 'unvaccinated person lives in this house' placard would be unnaceptable - but I see plenty of people on (anti)social media who would be well up for a good lynching.

People, trying to tell other people what they should or shouldn't do needs to stop. The vaccines should be easily available, the risks and benefits of having the vaccine (or not) on the individual and society as a whole should be explained in an informed manner.

Indeed. Some of the people who are pro-restriction are very keen to portray people who are against restrictions in a negative light; one way in which they can do that is to lump all those who oppose restrictions in with the anti-vaxxers such as Corbyn.

The reality is that if you get two people with some shared views on Covid response matters, the chances are they will disagree on something and it's just not sensible to try to lump all people who are against one thing to be automatically assumed to be against something else.

A conspiracy theorist, a Covid elimination enthusiast and someone like me who understands how pandemics end with endemic equilibrium will have some views we share and some views we disagree with; I'd be on the same side as the conspiracy theorists in opposing lockdowns, but on the same side as the Covid elimination enthusiasts in promoting vaccines.

I think its actually the children of people in their 80s and 90s that want us all locked up (because they are worried about their parents and they want their parents to live an extra couple of years) rather than the people in their 80s and 90s themselves. The most vociferous lockdown adherents have tended to be in the 30-55 age bracket.

I think there are certain patterns such as this; there will always be exceptions of course. Political views and being friends of people in certain political circles can make a difference too. I don't think it runs hugely on generational lines but I do agree with the points that younger people tend to be less likely to want lockdowns and I also agree that older people who we theoretically locked down to protect are not as likely to support them than people might think.

I didn't ever get to meet either of my grandfathers before they died but my grandmothers were both kept alive for several years beyond the point where they had any sort of meaningful dignified life; they did not know where they were, who they were or who anyone else was and it really was cruel keeping them alive, so I am very much opposed to this idea of keeping people alive indefinitely, which is our current aim. That's a whole new topic though. But it does influence my views on Covid measures and does make me question whether our current approach to Covid is right; it's all linked.

 

[35B]

However as I quoted it states the NHS is funded by it or shall I just say it tops up that bit extra?

To the point made by @John Luxton, I'd just suggest that if the NHS was funded by NI, it would be very short of funding indeed - and also be rather limited in it's scope. For all the alleged ring-fencing of NI, it's part of general taxation and if provided by anyone other than the government, the promoters would be jailed for running a ponzi scheme.

As for restrictions on who can benefit, there would be no moral difference in my mind between applying them to those who decline vaccinations, and those who refuse reasonable adjustments in their lifestyle to allow them to benefit from other treatments. Coercive or not, there is a clear relationship between cause and effect and with prevention better than cure, I don't consider it outside reasonable boundaries. Like others, though, I doubt it would be effective.

 

[Pete_uk]

May I share this humourous image with you all?

(Image is of a character with a stick called 'Goverment & media' poking a virus called 'omnicron' and saying 'come on, do something!)

 

[kez19]

May I share this humourous image with you all?

(Image is of a character with a stick called 'Goverment & media' poking a virus called 'omnicron' and saying 'come on, do something!)

Seen that earlier it rings true! (for me anyway)

 

[Lampshade]

There’s an interesting exchange going on on Twitter with a SAGE member

https://twitter.com/grahammedley/status/1472243230213394434?s=21

Why would you not - for completeness - add the scenario where Omicron is less virulent and more restrictions are not needed?

I meant you know what happens. That scenario doesn’t inform anything. Decision-makers don’t have to decide if nothing happens

Thanks, this helps me understand. So you exclusively model bad outcomes that require restrictions and omit just-as-likely outcomes that would not require restrictions?

We generally model what we are asked to model. There is a dialogue in which policy teams discuss with the modellers what they need to inform their policy

Okay, so you were asked to model bad Omicron outcomes and make no comment as to the probability?

Graham, I hope you realise what you’ve just admitted, has the potential to bring down @BorisJohnson. SAGE are being asked to produce models that fit government policy. Models that are leaked to the press to gaslight the public. ‘Follow the science’ no longer has any meaning.

Graham has had an absolute Weston this evening, he’s admitted that policy is decided first (lockdowns), and then worst case scenarios are used in modelling to justify such policies. Get this thread out there loud and clear- because it won’t be on Twitter by the morning

I think @GrahamMedley is one of the good guys but this suggests that there is a fundamental problem of scientific ethics in SAGE. The unquestioning response to the brief is very like that of SPI-B's behavioural scientists. This needs to be addressed by the inquiry.

I think so too. I'm slightly worried that he doesn't quite see the implications of what he's saying. If he does, all the more impressive...

 

[Ediswan]

May I share this humourous image with you all?

(Image is of a character with a stick called 'Goverment & media' poking a virus called 'omnicron' and saying 'come on, do something!)

Please do.

 

[Darandio]

There’s an interesting exchange going on on Twitter with a SAGE member

https://twitter.com/grahammedley/status/1472243230213394434?s=21

So they've effectively been asked to only model bad outcomes which are then fed to the press. Wow.

 

[kez19]

There’s an interesting exchange going on on Twitter with a SAGE member

https://twitter.com/grahammedley/status/1472243230213394434?s=21

Dig a bit deeper on that thread..

Picked this up from a user… in another thread https://mobile.twitter.com/DatingaSociopat/status/1472284603536785410

Wasn't it obvious when media switched when we were in an actual lockdown, and they were celebrating BLM protests? It was clearly an agenda. When media was showing people dropping dead on streets wuhan, clearly propoganda.

Absolutely true. We’ve been manipulated by MSM, and dare I say it by social media too who are in the back pockets of governments across the world. #FollowTheMoney

 

[Whistler40145]

Can you imagine if SAGE want a 4th Lockdown and the Conservative MPs gang up against Boris and tell him no, it's not happening

 

[bramling]

I see that Sadiq Khan has declared an emergency in London due to the number of COVID cases (and people off work as a consequence).

There really needs to be a review of the ten day isolation policy as it is becoming pointless and more damaging than the virus. The suggestion that people isolate until they've had a couple of days negative tests earlier on seems eminently sensible.

Khan really needs to take a look in the mirror and worry about things which *are* within his remit.

TfL has been a total shambles today. The busiest shopping day of the year, yet half the Underground running a skeleton service due to the RMT action and no doubt combined with Covid absence and the usual weekend under-resourcing.

Gaps of 25-30 minutes on many of the Tube lines, hardly reconciled with a health “emergency”, people being crammed on trains and platforms. The genesis of the RMT dispute is Night Tube (another Johnson idea) and the fact they’ve tried to restart it whilst all this other tat is going on.

Normally on such days when whole lines can only provide a handful of trains, the established approach is to run a service at the extremes only, to avoid gross overcrowding in the centre.

Last one out of Britain turn off the lights, that’s how it feels at this moment in time. Perhaps we should all go to Peppa Pig World instead?!

Can you imagine if SAGE want a 4th Lockdown and the Conservative MPs gang up against Boris and tell him no, it's not happening

That scenario is actually highly likely to happen, indeed it may already be.

I think its actually the children of people in their 80s and 90s that want us all locked up (because they are worried about their parents and they want their parents to live an extra couple of years) rather than the people in their 80s and 90s themselves. The most vociferous lockdown adherents have tended to be in the 30-55 age bracket.

Definitely true in my experience. Most elderly people wish to enjoy what time they have left, not be cooped up at home looking at four walls.

As you say, it’s more the middle-age group, who seem quite adept at speaking (what they feel is) on behalf of elderly people. There’s also the subset who want this to continue so they get some of the benefits they perceive as being able to be reaped, specifically working from home.

 

[21C101]

So they've effectively been asked to only model bad outcomes which are then fed to the press. Wow.

Is this the Ratner moment for the locktivists?

 

[asw22]

Omicron is probably going to cause a surge in infections at just the wrong time, but a lockdown after Christmas makes little sense, because hospitalisations will be peaking at that time - and the lag between infection and hospitalisation will mean infections and hospitalisations are likely already on the way down by the time it's enacted.

"Boris wants this christmas to be better than the last one so please be a good variant and stop spreading for a week"

I think that a lockdown is probably too late if implemented now, let alone in a week's time and will do too much damage in terms of mental health, business viability and so on. This variant has been in circulation for at least 3 weeks..

The natural firebreaks of school holidays should help as seen by previous school holidays at the end of July and October when the peaks turned to declines.

Maybe we need to go down the road of Singapore for the unvaccinated. If they contract Covid and need hospital treatment for Covid then they have to pay for their treatment. Let’s see how confident they feel this then?!

As I say I wouldn’t be comfortable with this but I’d rather that than the vaccinated chucked in the same boat as the unvaccinated.

What happens if an unvaccinated person goes into hospital with a non covid issue and then contracts it while in hospital? I have seen people go into hospital with one issue and come out with MRSA for example.

Would children under the age of 11 be refused treatment?

Vaccine efficacy against transmission fades over time especially after 12 weeks. Does this mean that the entire 50 million UK population require a booster every 3 months?
And if a booster is required every 3 months then who would have to roll it out and at what cost? We have already seen routine health checks for the over 75s and other hospital appointments put back to allow the booster roll out.


Or would we do better in developing and deploying better antiviral treatments?
Thousands of patients to benefit from life-saving COVID-19 treatment - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

And could we increase the use of virtual wards to reduce the strain on hospitals by allowing more recovery at home?
NHS England » COVID virtual wards

These two could then bypass the need for costly whole population vaccine roll outs every three months by focussing treatment where it is needed.

 

[yorkie]

There’s an interesting exchange going on on Twitter with a SAGE member

https://twitter.com/grahammedley/status/1472243230213394434?s=21

Wow, that's incredibly damning. I suggest people take screenshots in case the admission is later taken down.

Also don't forget we require a test quote as per forum rules I'll edit your post accordingly now.

So they've effectively been asked to only model bad outcomes which are then fed to the press. Wow.

That appears to be the implication; well not 'bad outcomes' as such, it's more that the input variables are bad.

Many experts in South Africa were absolutely clear that Omicron is less virulent than Delta; I can understand the modellers wanting to include a model that assumed those statements were untrue, but it makes absolutely no sense to refuse to include a model which assumes they were actually telling the truth. Was this incompetence or a deliberate attempt to reach a conclusion favouring more onerous restrictions and spreading panic, I wonder?

Edit: I see Graham Medley kept digging and completely missed the point!

https://twitter.com/GrahamMedley/status/1472273237816000513

The data doesn’t exist to inform the decision - if it did we wouldn’t be modelling

But the data does exist on the likely severity and transmissibility of Omicron based on SA data, being closer to the JP M model assumptions. So why isn't there a publicly available SAGE/SPI-M scenario based on those assumptions which do have plausibility and real world data?

Even if the data doesn't exist, you have to select inputs for the model. Rate of transmission, severity of disease, etc. How do you select those inputs? What's the criteria?

What about the data coming out of SA? Or is that a bit too positive?

Except, some data does exist from SA.
I’m sure just an oversight on your part.

 

[Simon11]

Found in the twitter link, this analysis looks at the sage model -v- actuals for several covid models created over the last two years.

While there are lots of factors behind doing a pretty rubbish job of modelling, why have the media not challenged these numbers like they should be?

I would be sacked if my forecasting was this bad…!

The Spectator Data Tracker | Sage | The Spectator

data.spectator.co.uk

 

[Drogba11CFC]

Is this the Ratner moment for the locktivists?

Let's hope they crash and burn in the space of a week.

 

[21C101]

Lord Frost, Johnsons lead Brexit negotiator has resigned from the government because of the imposition of Plan B Restrictions and Vaccine Passports.

Was also unhappy about the cost of "net zero" policies and tax increases.

 

[eastdyke]

Lord Frost, Johnsons lead Brexit negotiator has resigned from the government because of the imposition of Plan B Restrictions and Vaccine Passports.

Was also unhappy about the cost of "net zero" policies and tax increases.

EXCLUSIVE: Brexit minister Lord Frost walks out on Boris

MAIL ON SUNDAY EXCLUSIVE: Cabinet Minister Lord Frost has sensationally resigned from Boris Johnson's Government, The Mail on Sunday can exclusively reveal.

www.dailymail.co.uk

mmm ..... but was 'persuaded' to stay until January .......

Part quote:

Cabinet Minister Lord Frost has sensationally resigned from Boris Johnson's Government, The Mail on Sunday can exclusively reveal.

His dramatic move – triggered by his growing 'disillusionment' with the 'direction' of Tory policy – has sparked yet another crisis within a beleaguered Downing Street.

Lord Frost, who negotiated Britain's departure from the EU as Brexit Minister, is understood to have handed his resignation to the Prime Minister a week ago, but was persuaded by Mr Johnson to stay in his post until January.

 

[kez19]

Can you imagine if SAGE want a 4th Lockdown and the Conservative MPs gang up against Boris and tell him no, it's not happening

with what’s coming out on that Twitter thread this is just the tip of the iceberg or the titanic moment.

Wow, that's incredibly damning. I suggest people take screenshots in case the admission is later taken down.

for me it raises the other question the role of the media in all this? Person says model worst case scenario - so why are the media then themselves not asking for all 3 outcomes (or how many outcomes they produce)? It would at least balance it out. The media themselves aren’t going to come out of this alive unless they can find a perfect excuse to say other than “we didn’t know”

 

[yorksrob]

Khan really needs to take a look in the mirror and worry about things which *are* within his remit.

TfL has been a total shambles today. The busiest shopping day of the year, yet half the Underground running a skeleton service due to the RMT action and no doubt combined with Covid absence and the usual weekend under-resourcing.

Gaps of 25-30 minutes on many of the Tube lines, hardly reconciled with a health “emergency”, people being crammed on trains and platforms. The genesis of the RMT dispute is Night Tube (another Johnson idea) and the fact they’ve tried to restart it whilst all this other tat is going on.

Normally on such days when whole lines can only provide a handful of trains, the established approach is to run a service at the extremes only, to avoid gross overcrowding in the centre.

Last one out of Britain turn off the lights, that’s how it feels at this moment in time. Perhaps we should all go to Peppa Pig World instead?!



That scenario is actually highly likely to happen, indeed it may already be.



Definitely true in my experience. Most elderly people wish to enjoy what time they have left, not be cooped up at home looking at four walls.

As you say, it’s more the middle-age group, who seem quite adept at speaking (what they feel is) on behalf of elderly people. There’s also the subset who want this to continue so they get some of the benefits they perceive as being able to be reaped, specifically working from home.

I wouldn't disagree with you on any of that to be honest.

 

[John Luxton]

Some rioting going on in Downing Street at the moment https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1472244080453337099

I feel sorry for the police.

You can't tell me that they all believe in policing lockdowns and restrictions.

As in most jobs there will be a cross section of opinion across the ranks.

I am sure there are many who are against it all.

We have to encourage those that feel they are against these rules to speak out.

In spring 2020 I recall watching a YouTube video from a US Sheriff sitting in his patrol car worrying about how having to impose C19 restrictions was bringing him into conflict with people who in normal times would be very much behind the forces of law and order.

It can't be any different here in the UK.

It is coming to the point where those are anti restriction confront their superiors.

Just obeying orders is no longer a defence.

 

[brad465]

There’s an interesting exchange going on on Twitter with a SAGE member

https://twitter.com/grahammedley/status/1472243230213394434?s=21

Is this the Ratner moment for the locktivists?

Wow, that's incredibly damning. I suggest people take screenshots in case the admission is later taken down.

Also don't forget we require a test quote as per forum rules I'll edit your post accordingly now.


That appears to be the implication; well not 'bad outcomes' as such, it's more that the input variables are bad.

Many experts in South Africa were absolutely clear that Omicron is less virulent than Delta; I can understand the modellers wanting to include a model that assumed those statements were untrue, but it makes absolutely no sense to refuse to include a model which assumes they were actually telling the truth. Was this incompetence or a deliberate attempt to reach a conclusion favouring more onerous restrictions and spreading panic, I wonder?

Edit: I see Graham Medley kept digging and completely missed the point!

https://twitter.com/GrahamMedley/status/1472273237816000513

Let's hope they crash and burn in the space of a week.

If Fraser Nelson gets this onto the front pages of both The Telegraph and The Spectator (i.e. the two papers he writes for), then the public will start seeing it enough to potentially cause a SAGE downfall.

 

[John Luxton]

If it was something like Ebola, or a new equivalent of Polio that would have killed a third of the population or struck down children and maimed them; then, such extraordinary measures might be necessary.

Agreed

When Ebola kicked off I was really scared in particular when it appeared catching it was a virtual death sentence.

But the world held its nerve, it didn't go along with the scare and it petered out.

I will admit if it had come to mass vaccination for Ebola I would have been in the queue PDQ.

But a variation on the common cold / flu - that is a different matter as I know I just don't tend to catch either.