Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[43066]

Disappointed i haven't received my NHS booster text yet

Received mine, despite not even being eligible. I’ve deleted it!

 

[21C101]

I find it quite amusing how hot under the collar some on here are getting because they received a text from the Government. I assume they think it’s some sort of breach of their liberties?

If you are really upset by this then I suggest you have a long hard look in the mirror and think about what is really upsetting in life, you know like the death of a relative or maybe losing your job.

If that doesn’t work go and have a drink to calm your nerves.

It is important to react to things like this. If people make enough fuss about minor such actions by HM Government, they will be less keen to turn the ratchet further.

A bit like the broken window philosophy to stopping crime.

A broken window is a minorish nuisance, however if you crack down hard on the perpetrators they don't then get emboldened to commit more serious crimes as time passes.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

I find it quite amusing how hot under the collar some on here are getting because they received a text from the Government. I assume they think it’s some sort of breach of their liberties?

If you are really upset by this then I suggest you have a long hard look in the mirror and think about what is really upsetting in life, you know like the death of a relative or maybe losing your job.

If that doesn’t work go and have a drink to calm your nerves.

Generally people don't react well to constant gratuitous hectoring.

 

[DustyBin]

It is important to react to things like this. If people make enough fuss about minor such actions by HM Government, they will be less keen to turn the ratchet further.

A bit like the broken window philosophy to stopping crime.

A broken window is a minorish nuisance, however if you crack down hard on the perpetrators they don't then get emboldened to commit more serious crimes as time passes.

It’s not too dissimilar to the reintroduction of the mask mandate a few weeks ago. I said at the time that it was a “show of hands” as to whether the majority of people would accept further restrictions, and unfortunately they donned their masks and in doing so said yes.

 

[Snow1964]

I've never received a text for any of the vaccinations

Maybe your GP doesn’t have your number, mine does as I receive text confirmations of appointments etc. So NHS can update if required.

It was reported this morning that NHS has over 1.5m bookable covid vaccination slots still available by new year, so seems not all vaccination slots fully booked up.

Rather wastes the volunteers time if people don’t use them, so encouraging people to book a booster doesn’t seem a bad idea on a day when they might be sitting around not doing much.

 

[matt]

Maybe your GP doesn’t have your number, mine does as I receive text confirmations of appointments etc

It was reported this morning that NHS has over 1.5m bookable covid vaccination slots still available by new year, so seems not all vaccination slots fully booked up.

Rather wastes the volunteers time if people don’t use them, so encouraging people to book a booster doesn’t seem a bad idea on a day when they might be sitting around not doing much.

The text message yesterday was not sent by your GP.

 

[Smidster]

Good news in that indications are for no more restrictions to be announced today which means we should be OK to get to New Years.

After then the strong likelihood is that we would be over the peak in infections at which point any more restrictions would just be silly as your hospital case load is already baked in.

Somebody keep Johnson on the Cheese & Wine for the next few days please and away from the hysterical mob on Twitter.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

NHS England has issued hospital stats for 25th and 26th although five trusts didn't report so they are warning data is incomplete.

NHS London, which has one trust not reporting, had admissions of 386, 390, 278 for 21st, 22nd and 23rd respectively with total hospitalised in London yesterday of 2425 +165 on Xmas Eve but add in last known data for Whittingham Trust of 51 beds occupied on 21/12 means it more like +210 which is consistent with daily increase on avg of 100 over last week. Clearly +100/day is unsustainable if it doesn't flatline and also suspect some people would be reluctant to to go in over Xmas so we aren't out of the woods yet.

My forecast is Boris will do nothing today but ought to be reminding people of the situation and encouraging behaviour that helps to moderate contact and that keeping hospital admissions manageable is key to getting through this wave.

 

[Furryanimal]

Received mine, despite not even being eligible. I’ve deleted it!

I had one this morning.....and l live in Wales and had my booster before Omnicron had even been in the news.By the appointment I was sent in the post.
But I’m not sure how they got my number because I don’t remember giving it to my doctor or anyone in the health authority( and it was pinged umpteen times before each of three appointments).

 

[greyman42]

Why are some people getting worked up about the text? Perhaps because it isn't exactly truthful. It says we "need" the booster, but the vast majority do not. It is potentially the thin edge of a very dangerous wedge.

Whether someone needs it or not, it is not going to do any harm is it.

NHS England has issued hospital stats for 25th and 26th although five trusts didn't report so they are warning data is incomplete.

NHS London, which has one trust not reporting, had admissions of 386, 390, 278 for 21st, 22nd and 23rd respectively with total hospitalised in London yesterday of 2425 +165 on Xmas Eve but add in last known data for Whittingham Trust of 51 beds occupied on 21/12 means it more like +210 which is consistent with daily increase on avg of 100 over last week. Clearly +100/day is unsustainable if it doesn't flatline and also suspect some people would be reluctant to to go in over Xmas so we aren't out of the woods yet.

My forecast is Boris will do nothing today but ought to be reminding people of the situation and encouraging behaviour that helps to moderate contact and that keeping hospital admissions manageable is key to getting through this wave.

Should the figures for hospital discharges not be in there as well?

 

[43066]

If you are really upset by this then I suggest you have a long hard look in the mirror and think about what is really upsetting in life, you know like the death of a relative or maybe losing your job.

Both of which will have happened to many, many people as a direct result of the restrictions resulting from the gross overreaction to Covid over the past two years. The greatest outrage is that, despite all SAGE’s doom mongering, apparently nobody has bothered to estimate quite how many.

Good news in that indications are for no more restrictions to be announced today which means we should be OK to get to New Years.

After then the strong likelihood is that we would be over the peak in infections at which point any more restrictions would just be silly as your hospital case load is already baked in.

Somebody keep Johnson on the Cheese & Wine for the next few days please and away from the hysterical mob on Twitter.

Indeed - good news indeed. Quite honestly if we make it through NYE without restrictions I think the game will have properly changed. Better late than never!

NHS London, which has one trust not reporting, had admissions of 386, 390, 278 for 21st, 22nd and 23rd respectively with total hospitalised in London yesterday of 2425 +165 on Xmas Eve but add in last known data for Whittingham Trust of 51 beds occupied on 21/12 means it more like +210 which is consistent with daily increase on avg of 100 over last week. Clearly +100/day is unsustainable if it doesn't flatline and also suspect some people would be reluctant to to go in over Xmas so we aren't out of the woods yet.

Although of course 2/3 of those figures may well consist of people being admitted for non Covid related reasons and then testing positive once in hospital.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Should the figures for hospital discharges not be in there as well?

They only report that data monthly so you have to try and deduce it and thats then complicated by the fact that nosocomial acquired infections are pushing up the overall numbers in hospital. Last week on some days there were over 1000 cases/day but given total hospitilised was going up by an average of 100-150/day would imply c900/day are being discharged. The latest CO-SIN report taht was placed on SAGE last Friday showed that over December so far duration of stays have reduced significantly compared to previous six months so at least reinforcing the view from SA that it is a milder than previous variants conversely it is of course significantly more transmissible so thats just as well.

 

[duncanp]

NHS England has issued hospital stats for 25th and 26th although five trusts didn't report so they are warning data is incomplete.

NHS London, which has one trust not reporting, had admissions of 386, 390, 278 for 21st, 22nd and 23rd respectively with total hospitalised in London yesterday of 2425 +165 on Xmas Eve but add in last known data for Whittingham Trust of 51 beds occupied on 21/12 means it more like +210 which is consistent with daily increase on avg of 100 over last week. Clearly +100/day is unsustainable if it doesn't flatline and also suspect some people would be reluctant to to go in over Xmas so we aren't out of the woods yet.

My forecast is Boris will do nothing today but ought to be reminding people of the situation and encouraging behaviour that helps to moderate contact and that keeping hospital admissions manageable is key to getting through this wave.

It is not just the total of hospital admissions that matter, but the percentage of those that are "because of" COVID rather than "with" COVID, whether the patient requires intensive care, and the time that each category of hospital admission spends in hospital.

You also have to consider the hospital admissions in the light of when the patient was likely to have been infected, assuming a lag of around 10 days between infection and hospitalisations.

Taking all these metrics into account, you can forecast the likely number of patients in hospital on a given date, which will give an indication of how stretched the NHS is likely to be.

The fact that nothing is likely to happen today is a good sign, as it is a clear indication that there are no nasty surprises in the data which would require extra restrictions.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

You can tell that public patience is long gone because certain people want restrictions rebranded as "protections" - a last, desperate throw of the dice.

 

[NorthOxonian]

You can tell that public patience is long gone because certain people want restrictions rebranded as "protections" - a last, desperate throw of the dice.

I see that change rather differently - it worries me. "Restrictions forever" obviously isn't a viable message, but "protections forever" is - and I think that's what these extremists will pivot to next.

Though hopefully you're right and this is just their last, desperate move.

 

[duncanp]

You can tell that public patience is long gone because certain people want restrictions rebranded as "protections" - a last, desperate throw of the dice.

I think Nicola Sturgeon referred to "additional protections" in her speech to the Scottish parliament.

As if people are stupid enough to fall for that.

To paraphrase Shakespeare from Romeo & Juliet:-

"...That which we call a dog turd will still smell as rancid by any other name..."

Still, today's figures are encouraging, with the caveat that they are incomplete due to the Christmas holiday.

There is a definite slow down in the number of new cases, which has been going on since 15th/16th December (depending on nation/region) and this will feed through into all the other metrics in the course of time.

I think this is why Boris Johnson is holding off on any new restrictions for the moment, because there is a downside to making decisions that will have a considerable impact on the opinion polls people's lives based on incomplete data, if that data turns out to be not so bad as first thought.

 

[brad465]

Apparently the head of the pub chain JW Lees has barred a range of figures who've demanded restrictions from his pubs, including Drakeford, Sturgeon, Neil Ferguson, Susan Michie and even Robert Peston:

JW Lees boss "bars" Nicola Sturgeon and Mark Drakeford from his pubs

No pints for the First Minister

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

The boss of JW Lees has 'barred' Scottish first minster Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Welsh Labour Party Mark Drakeford and members of Sage from his pubs.

William Lees-Jones tweeted last night: “The @JWLeesBrewery Christmas gift to the UK this year is that we're barring the following from all of our pubs - @NicolaSturgeon @MarkDrakeford @SusanMichie @Zubhaque @Peston @neil_ferguson.”

The tongue-in-cheek tweet was accompanied by a gif of a man being forcibly ejected from a pub and rolling into the gutter.

Also on the banned list were ITV's political editor Robert Peston and infectious disease expert Neil Ferguson.

It comes ahead of concerns from the hospitality business that it will be forced into further lockdown closures, in the wake of increasing infections of the Omicron covid variant.

How serious this is is debatable, but certainly highlights frustration in the hospitality industry.

 

[52290]

Apparently the head of the pub chain JW Lees has barred a range of figures who've demanded restrictions from his pubs, including Drakeford, Sturgeon, Neil Ferguson, Susan Michie and even Robert Peston:

JW Lees boss "bars" Nicola Sturgeon and Mark Drakeford from his pubs

No pints for the First Minister

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

How serious this is is debatable, but certainly highlights frustration in the hospitality industry.

I would be suicidal if I could never have another pint of Lee's MPA

 

[greyman42]

You can tell that public patience is long gone because certain people want restrictions rebranded as "protections" - a last, desperate throw of the dice.

I noticed that the BBC and Sky were having a last frenzied drive this morning of why more restrictions were necessary.

 

[21C101]

Apparently the head of the pub chain JW Lees has barred a range of figures who've demanded restrictions from his pubs, including Drakeford, Sturgeon, Neil Ferguson, Susan Michie and even Robert Peston:

JW Lees boss "bars" Nicola Sturgeon and Mark Drakeford from his pubs

No pints for the First Minister

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

How serious this is is debatable, but certainly highlights frustration in the hospitality industry.

He forgot to ban Khan and Gove.

 

[brad465]

Javid now saying now new Covid restrictions before the New Year in England:

No new Covid rules in England before new year - Javid

The health secretary's comments come as England reported a record 113,628 cases on Christmas Day.

www.bbc.co.uk

There will be no further Covid restrictions in England before the new year, Sajid Javid has said.
But the health secretary said people should "remain cautious" and celebrate outside on New Year's Eve if possible.
"When we get into the new year, of course we will see then whether we do need to take any further measures, but nothing more until then at least," he said.
Meanwhile, England reported a record number of cases on Christmas Day.
The figures showed there were 113,628 new infections reported in England on 25 December, 103,558 on 26 December and 98,515 on 27 December.
Only partial Covid data has been published over the Christmas period.
Meanwhile, the Scottish government said provisional data suggested Christmas weekend had seen the highest daily cases recorded in Scotland since the start of the pandemic.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said the expected wave of cases fuelled by Omicron was "materialising".
Scotland and Northern Ireland have both tightened rules for a second day, with hospitality venues returning to table service only and social distancing returning in several settings.
Early findings last week suggested people infected with the fast-spreading Omicron variant were less likely to be admitted to hospital - although a range of factors is likely to be examined when looking at the case for restrictions.
Mr Javid said 90% of cases across England were now the Omicron variant.

He's also said 90% of cases in England are Omicron ones, so Delta is more or less out of the way and we have to see how quickly this peak arrives.

 

[duncanp]

Apparently the head of the pub chain JW Lees has barred a range of figures who've demanded restrictions from his pubs, including Drakeford, Sturgeon, Neil Ferguson, Susan Michie and even Robert Peston:

JW Lees boss "bars" Nicola Sturgeon and Mark Drakeford from his pubs

No pints for the First Minister

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

How serious this is is debatable, but certainly highlights frustration in the hospitality industry.

Can't help thinking a certain Mr Tim Martin will follow suit fairly shortly.

 

[43066]

You can tell that public patience is long gone because certain people want restrictions rebranded as "protections" - a last, desperate throw of the dice.

The screaming will no doubt get louder and louder as it dawns on those calling for more restrictions that they’re losing their stranglehold on public opinion and government policy. To be honest it’s quite satisfying to watch!

 

[duncanp]

The screaming will no doubt get louder and louder as it dawns on those calling for more restrictions that they’re losing their stranglehold on public opinion and government policy. To be honest it’s quite satisfying to watch!

There is a definite policy divide opening up between England on the one hand, and Scotland and Wales on the other hand.

Someone is going to end up with egg on their faces very soon.

This will also be very satisfying to watch.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The fact that nothing is likely to happen today is a good sign, as it is a clear indication that there are no nasty surprises in the data which would require extra restrictions.

The data has been further updated from earlier and given total hospitalised in England has increased by +938 on yesterday, which is biggest one day rise since Jan 21, hasn't spooked them makes its an unexpected outcome. That said London, even on worst case admissions measure, remained below the 400 threshold at 364.

 

[Pete_uk]

I worry about 'the numbers' in two weeks time. I expect once January is over the numbers will be heading down...

 

[duncanp]

I worry about 'the numbers' in two weeks time. I expect once January is over the numbers will be heading down...

There may well be a spike in cases in early January once schools return after the holidays.

Any increased transmission following the return of schools after the new year will be offset by the increasing rollout of the booster jab program, which will reduce any consequent hospitalisations.

When a virus is endemic, there are always going to be periods when cases are rising, and periods when cases are falling.

COVID cannot be eliminated (in the short term at least) and it is important to realise this.

 

[DerekC]

The screaming will no doubt get louder and louder as it dawns on those calling for more restrictions that they’re losing their stranglehold on public opinion and government policy. To be honest it’s quite satisfying to watch!

There is a definite policy divide opening up between England on the one hand, and Scotland and Wales on the other hand.

Someone is going to end up with egg on their faces very soon.

This will also be very satisfying to watch.

This really is a very strange thread. I think it's an echo-chamber for a specific set of ill-informed opinions about the pandemic. I take a look occasionally to see how it's coming along.

 

[Yew]

This really is a very strange thread. I think it's an echo-chamber for a specific set of ill-informed opinions about the pandemic. I take a look occasionally to see how it's coming along.

Ill informed?

 

[duncanp]

This really is a very strange thread. I think it's an echo-chamber for a specific set of ill-informed opinions about the pandemic. I take a look occasionally to see how it's coming along.

My post about the policy divide opening up between England and Scotland/Wales was a statement of fact, not an "ill informed opinion".

We saw scary predictions of an increase in cases when England released all restrictions on 19th July, which never came true.

And the fact that the number of patients in hospital on Boxing Day this year was a approximately a third of the number of patients in hospital on Boxing Day 2020, whilst the number of cases reported on Boxing Day this is about three times the number reported on Boxing Day last year, is not an "ill informed opinion" either.