Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[NorthKent1989]

If you've got COVID you're not perfectly healthy. Fairly obviously.

We can’t keep keeping those without symptoms off work, that’s my point, if you feel physically sick with Covid stay off work, if not go to work it’s that simple.

 

[Pete_uk]

My philosophy is 'Dont test, don't tell'.

I'm going to get it, I may have had it. Like any other virus I might pass it on. Like any 'cold' I might get the sniffles or I might be knocked sideways.

The world will keep turning.

 

[Berliner]

I know several people who are isolating at home and therefore not at work. Not a single one meets the criteria that would have seen them staying at home before Covid - they are not ill. At worst some minor snuffles.

I also know of someone who had half their household members test positive for covid (without symptoms), only for the other half to then continue to test negative, but obviously had to isolate for absolutely no reason, simply because someone in their house had it. I don't think it's false negatives either as they were all using the same test kit batches each day to keep testing and were doing it properly. Another of my friends got it, had very mild symptoms, but no one else in the house contracted it, but again, all had to isolate. In both cases, everyone involved was fully vaxxed, so it's really illogical making them all stay home when in the end every single one of the people involved was healthy and fit enough to have been out working in normal times. I don't doubt it is an easily transmissible virus, but it's not a given that it spreads frantically in close quarters either.

 

[Simon11]

From the Telegraph reported on 4th December 2021 but unfortunately behind a pay wall:

Covid causing just one in five excess deaths in parts of England​

In West Berkshire, just 19 per cent of excess deaths recorded since the start of July listed coronavirus as an underlying cause

Covid causing just one in five excess deaths in parts of England

In West Berkshire, just 19 per cent of excess deaths recorded since the start of July listed coronavirus as an underlying cause

www.telegraph.co.uk

I await the strategy, policy and government spending requirements information from poster D1537 to ensure that if we really do want to care about excess deaths in England, we should now focus on the 80% gap in excess deaths over the last five months.

 

[Busaholic]

It would depend on your definition of healthy.

Many people receive terminal diagnoses of various cancers, for example, but then go on to live much longer than they were expected to, and indeed some live full, active lives and only start to slow down in their very final weeks in some cases. I Would class them as healthy, personally, until they start to succumb to what's happening inside anyway. The same could be said for many, many illnesses or conditions. I have a long-term issue for which I have had surgery, I am still living a perfectly healthy, active, life even though I take medication and require annual hospital checkups.

Your opinion is not shared by the U.K. government. Despite the various governments since 2010 withdrawing all sorts of formerly available allowances and ameliorations for those classed as 'disabled' ('unhealthy', I'm afraid, doesn't figure in their language, legally speaking) the following categories are listed on government websites as being automatically treated as disabled immediately on receipt of a written diagnosis by a relevant medical specialist:-

1) Diagnosis of AIDS/HIV

2) Diagnosis of any form of cancer

3) Diagnosis of multiple sclerosis

I'm very happy that you're still living a perfectly healthy and active life, but most people who are told they have an incurable cancer, for instance, don't have many years ahead of them, let alone carefree years. Obviously, the older you are the more unlikely it is too.

 

[farleigh]

Serious question for those with Omicron.

Is it worse than a 2019 cold or about the same?

I think I may have had it but I am not sure

 

[johnnychips]

You might like to look at this thread, which gives personal experiences:

Personal experience of Covid (Autumn/Winter 2021-22)

Do we have an existing thread on this topic? i have been self-isolating since Tuesday, other than a drive-through PCR test - which is what gave me a positive result. No loss of taste, no loss of smell, no significant difficulty in breathing. I always thought the loss of taste/smell would come...

www.railforums.co.uk

I had a runny nose and a bit of a cough for two days, but never felt ill.

 

[brad465]

From the Telegraph reported on 4th December 2021 but unfortunately behind a pay wall:

Covid causing just one in five excess deaths in parts of England

In West Berkshire, just 19 per cent of excess deaths recorded since the start of July listed coronavirus as an underlying cause

www.telegraph.co.uk

I await the strategy, policy and government spending requirements information from poster D1537 to ensure that if we really do want to care about excess deaths in England, we should now focus on the 80% gap in excess deaths over the last five months.

Yes the ONS have been reporting excess deaths that are not caused by covid for approaching 6 months now, yet the double standards media are not anywhere as interested as they were when covid was the cause. The chart below from the ONS shows how the green bar (deaths not covid) is clearly above the 5 year average, and while it's not as much above in any given week as the covid bars were in the past, it's more prolonged now:

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19), by age, sex and region.

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[778]

they were when covid was the cause. The chart below from the ONS shows how the green bar (deaths not covid) is clearly above the 5 year average, and while it's not as much above in any given week as the covid bars were in the past, it's more prolonged now:

You can tell by looking at the chart how well the vaccines have done.

 

[DustyBin]

Serious question for those with Omicron.

Is it worse than a 2019 cold or about the same?

I think I may have had it but I am not sure

About the same in my experience. The symptoms are slightly different (some of them anyway) but no worse in severity; in fact I can honestly say that I’ve had worse colds.

 

[MikeWM]

Yes the ONS have been reporting excess deaths that are not caused by covid for approaching 6 months now, yet the double standards media are not anywhere as interested as they were when covid was the cause. The chart below from the ONS shows how the green bar (deaths not covid) is clearly above the 5 year average, and while it's not as much above in any given week as the covid bars were in the past, it's more prolonged now:

This continues to concern me significantly. Firstly some of the Covid deaths will be people who would otherwise have died from something else. Secondly some of the people who 'should' have died in the last 6 months will have died a little earlier than that due to Covid.

So it really seems to me that non-Covid deaths should be quite considerably *below* the mean at this point therefore - like they were last winter/spring but probably even lower. That we continue to see consistent above-average non-Covid mortality is highly troubling, and we really need to be putting a lot of effort into discovering the cause(s).

 

[Jonny]

My philosophy is 'Dont test, don't tell'.

I'm going to get it, I may have had it. Like any other virus I might pass it on. Like any 'cold' I might get the sniffles or I might be knocked sideways.

The world will keep turning.

Unless you are expecting to meet seriously vulnerable people and you're feeling well, what do you even need a test for?

 

[brad465]

Unless you are expecting to meet seriously vulnerable people and you're feeling well, what do you even need a test for?

I think tests are useful for identifying specific treatments of benefit, but beyond that they are a complete waste of money, resources and a burden on the environment.

 

[GC class B1]

I think tests are useful for identifying specific treatments of benefit, but beyond that they are a complete waste of money, resources and a burden on the environment.

And on the economy.

 

[jumble]

Right, I'm off out of this thread and back to the trains. Having been on the railway scene for 40 years or more I was aware that there are plenty of enthusiasts with "unconventional" views, but I wasn't aware that those included a wish to actively infect other people with a disease that could actually be pretty serious for them. I thought we'd reached a new low with those people who tried to stop the lifeboat launching in Sussex because it was going to help refugees. Clearly, I was wrong.

Unfortunately it is a fact of life which most of us can happily ignore that there are a considerable number of people in this country who if they don't go out to work and earn money they don't eat
I strongly suspect that if you were faced with that situation your self your views might be different.

 

[brad465]

Below are the Worldometer case rate changes over the last 7 days, where the rates of increase on display do not look like rates that can be contained until enough immunity has built out to cause the virus to run out of hosts:

COVID-19 Weekly Trends by Country - Worldometer

New cases and deaths in the last 7 days vs. the preceding week. Absolute and percentage change, weekly cases and deaths per million people in every country in the world

www.worldometers.info

Of particular interest is Australia, which once pursued zero covid, is now just outside the top 10 for the last 7 days.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

That we continue to see consistent above-average non-Covid mortality is highly troubling, and we really need to be putting a lot of effort into discovering the cause(s).

People like Professor Karol Sikora have been pointing out for a long time now that all the cancelled routine medical appointments, referrals and lack of access to GPs since the first lockdown started have resulted in many thousands of people not having regular dread diseases diagnosed; his own estimates are in the region of 50,000 undiagnosed cancer cases alone. Then on top of that there will be people with undiagnosed cardiac issues and other similar conditions which would normally have been picked up either by GPs or by specialist referrrals.

Given the length of time since the first lockdown started, we will already be reaping the consequences of that.

This will go some way towards explaining the figures.

 

[Simon11]

Below are the Worldometer case rate changes over the last 7 days, where the rates of increase on display do not look like rates that can be contained until enough immunity has built out to cause the virus to run out of hosts:

COVID-19 Weekly Trends by Country - Worldometer

New cases and deaths in the last 7 days vs. the preceding week. Absolute and percentage change, weekly cases and deaths per million people in every country in the world

www.worldometers.info

View attachment 108182
Of particular interest is Australia, which once pursued zero covid, is now just outside the top 10 for the last 7 days.

What I find interesting is that either some countries are doing very little testing or they are facing a huge death rate from Covid (maybe due to lack of vaccinations?).

Compare the cases & deaths in UK, -v- Germany, Russia, USA and the percentage of deaths from cases is quite varied.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Yes, it is worth noting that, whilst 319 patients were admitted to hospital in London on 31st December, the number of patients in hospital at 08:00 on 1st January (3,666) is only 30 higher than the number of patients in hospital at 08:00 on 31st December.

The conclusion is that 289 patients must have been discharged from hospital on 31st December.

Eventually, the discharges on a given day will exceed the admissions on a given day, and the number of patients in hospital will fall.

The daily increase in patients in hospital in London has never exceeded 384 (on 28th December), but I think it is a bit too early to see whether this is part of a long term trend, as admissions and discharges are disrupted over Christmas and the New Year.

Indeed I read somewhere today that part of the problem is that there are quite a number of patients who are ready to be discharged, but can't be because there is nowhere to send them (such as to a care home, or supported living accommodation, or to their own home with appropriate care and support)

So all in all, the data is encouraging, and I just hope that the government realises this and can hold its nerver for the next couple of weeks until a long term downward trend in all the appropriate metrics is established.

It actually exceeded 500 admissions on 29th but has fallen back very sharply total hospitalised on 2nd Jan is 3744 (+78) although i suspect getting discharges organised over weekends is a problem and your correct that some London boroughs have been reporting staffing issues in care homes delaying discharges.

I wonder if NHS remove them from the stats if they end up testing negative?

 

[duncanp]

It actually exceeded 500 admissions on 29th but has fallen back very sharply total hospitalised on 2nd Jan is 3744 (+78) although i suspect getting discharges organised over weekends is a problem and your correct that some London boroughs have been reporting staffing issues in care homes delaying discharges.

I wonder if NHS remove them from the stats if they end up testing negative?

I realise that the number of admission exceeded 500 on 29th December, but the net increase (admissions minus discharges) in patients in hospital for London has never exceeded 384.

It is this net increase which determines to what extent the NHS in London is under pressure as a result of COVID admissions.

Regardless of what metric you use, it is good to see that all the figures are moving in the right direction.

It seems this has no gone unnoticed in the government, as all the indications are that no new restrictions will be imposed this week when the figures are reviewed.

Indeed the smoke signals coming out of Downing Street suggest that the pointless pre departure tests, now required for all travellers entering the UK, are going to be scrapped from this week.

 

[MikeWM]

People like Professor Karol Sikora have been pointing out for a long time now that all the cancelled routine medical appointments, referrals and lack of access to GPs since the first lockdown started have resulted in many thousands of people not having regular dread diseases diagnosed; his own estimates are in the region of 50,000 undiagnosed cancer cases alone. Then on top of that there will be people with undiagnosed cardiac issues and other similar conditions which would normally have been picked up either by GPs or by specialist referrrals.

Given the length of time since the first lockdown started, we will already be reaping the consequences of that.

This will go some way towards explaining the figures.

Well, indeed so, I agree that is probably the cause of much or most of what we're seeing. Terrible that this was entirely predictable - and predicted, by many on here among others - and yet here we are.

It also exposes further the total insanity of cutting back on so many NHS services in order to 'boost' healthy young people against something that is now pretty much a common cold for most.

Somewhat troubling that these figures only reversed around June 2021. I wonder how much worse they may get in the years to come...

Note that Sweden, for a contrasting example, has had *below*-average overall mortality since the start of 2020.

 

[Eyersey468]

People like Professor Karol Sikora have been pointing out for a long time now that all the cancelled routine medical appointments, referrals and lack of access to GPs since the first lockdown started have resulted in many thousands of people not having regular dread diseases diagnosed; his own estimates are in the region of 50,000 undiagnosed cancer cases alone. Then on top of that there will be people with undiagnosed cardiac issues and other similar conditions which would normally have been picked up either by GPs or by specialist referrrals.

Given the length of time since the first lockdown started, we will already be reaping the consequences of that.

This will go some way towards explaining the figures.

Well, indeed so, I agree that is probably the cause of much or most of what we're seeing. Terrible that this was entirely predictable - and predicted, by many on here among others - and yet here we are.

It also exposes further the total insanity of cutting back on so many NHS services in order to 'boost' healthy young people against something that is now pretty much a common cold for most.

Somewhat troubling that these figures only reversed around June 2021. I wonder how much worse they may get in the years to come...

Note that Sweden, for a contrasting example, has had *below*-average overall mortality since the start of 2020.

I also agree and had seen this coming from the beginning.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Some light relief:

But numerous incidents, including eight people over the age of 90 who needed hospital treatment after falling from playground equipment, were recorded.

Not light relief to hear of people being injured but great to think of those 90 years olds being out and about enjoying their time.

Full story on the BBC here

Covid: Thousands needed hospital treatment after lockdown DIY​

New NHS figures show that thousands of people injured in household accidents were admitted to English hospitals during Covid-19 lockdowns.

The 2020/21 figures for England were obtained by the PA news agency and found accidents fell in many categories as people spent more time indoors.

But numerous incidents, including eight people over the age of 90 who needed hospital treatment after falling from playground equipment, were recorded.

DIY disasters injured many more.

Data from NHS Digital showed that more than 5,300 people were admitted to hospital after falls from a range of playground attractions such as swings and slides.

While the average age of these adventurers was nine-and-a-half years old, dozens of parents and grandparents were also injured.

Meanwhile, as thousands of people turned their attention to household DIY tasks, more than 5,600 amateur builders required hospital attention after coming into contact with an electric hand tool.

Another 2,700 people sought medical attention after an accident with a non-powered hand tool, such as a hammer or a saw, and 349 were admitted to hospital after tussles with a lawnmower.

Working from home saw everyday household items pose a fresh hazard, with 2,243 people needing attention after coming into contact with hot drinks, food, fats and cooking oils.

And while many people found comfort during lockdowns by adopting pets, 7,386 people were admitted to English hospitals after being bitten or struck by a dog, while 60 others sought assistance after encounters with venomous spiders.

One 90-year-old woman was admitted to hospital after being bitten or struck by a crocodile or alligator.

Despite spending more time at home, the number of people needing assistance after being struck by lightning rose from three cases in 2019/20 to 18 in 2020/21.

The figures are likely to be just the tip of the iceberg, representing only those who were admitted to hospital for their injuries. Many more accidents would have been dealt with by A&E doctors and GPs.

A spokesperson for the Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents (RoSPA) said the accidents were a reminder of the breadth of accidents that hospitals deal with on a daily basis.

"In among the stranger entries in the database are some worrying trends that serve to highlight the accident challenges that we face," the spokesperson added.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I realise that the number of admission exceeded 500 on 29th December, but the net increase (admissions minus discharges) in patients in hospital for London has never exceeded 384.

It is this net increase which determines to what extent the NHS in London is under pressure as a result of COVID admissions.

Regardless of what metric you use, it is good to see that all the figures are moving in the right direction.

It seems this has no gone unnoticed in the government, as all the indications are that no new restrictions will be imposed this week when the figures are reviewed.

Indeed the smoke signals coming out of Downing Street suggest that the pointless pre departure tests, now required for all travellers entering the UK, are going to be scrapped from this week.

Ultimately physical numbers of beds that available staff can support will the limiting factor and unlike the railways who are broadly culling services in anticipation of staff shortages NHS can't do the same. Conversely though any action taken by govt now won't provide much of a response for 10-14 days so perhaps Javid better get his clever modellers to work out how many beds NHS can actually manage.

 

[brad465]

Some light relief:

Not light relief to hear of people being injured but great to think of those 90 years olds being out and about enjoying their time.

Full story on the BBC here

I posted this story in this thread, and how this shows that there will always be risks in life no matter what we do, and once risk is reduced to at a certain level, all we seem to be able to do is transfer it from one cause of pain/suffering/trouble to another.

 

[yorkie]

Below are the Worldometer case rate changes over the last 7 days, where the rates of increase on display do not look like rates that can be contained until enough immunity has built out to cause the virus to run out of hosts:

COVID-19 Weekly Trends by Country - Worldometer

New cases and deaths in the last 7 days vs. the preceding week. Absolute and percentage change, weekly cases and deaths per million people in every country in the world

www.worldometers.info

Of particular interest is Australia, which once pursued zero covid, is now just outside the top 10 for the last 7 days.

And places like Iceland and Ireland have higher case rates than us. Ireland has stricter rules too.

Ultimately, in order to reach endemic equilibrium, each country is going to have to get the majority of its population exposed to Omicron (preferably after having previously got all vulnerable people, and most adults, vaccinated).

Any country that prevents Omicron spreading now is going to face another 'wave' of mass infections next winter and/or when the next variant comes along.

Omicron is actually really good for assisting us in reaching the end of the epidemic because it's highly contagious, relatively mild, and anyone infected by it goes on to develop very robust polyclonal immunity which will offer excellent protection against future 'waves'.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Ultimately physical numbers of beds that available staff can support will the limiting factor and unlike the railways who are broadly culling services in anticipation of staff shortages NHS can't do the same. Conversely though any action taken by govt now won't provide much of a response for 10-14 days so perhaps Javid better get his clever modellers to work out how many beds NHS can actually manage.

NHS does exactly the same as the railways. They cull services to match resource availability. Hence cancelling routine surgery. Also removing availabiity of diagnostic services/appointments which, if something is found, will lead to the need to carry out surgery. Also by extending waiting lists/times. Encouraging the gatekeepers of the NHS (GP's) not to deliver new problems to them also helps.

 

[initiation]

And places like Iceland and Ireland have higher case rates than us. Ireland has stricter rules too.

A further titbit is the rolling 7 day case rate has England having the lowest of the 4 home nations - despite having the lowest level of restrictions.

 

[Horizon22]

If you’ve got minor cold like symptoms you don’t need to be off work. Fairly obviously.

I think its semantics, but you are not "perfectly healthy" with Covid. Nor are you with a cold or any illness, no matter how minor or short-term. Whether you should be off sick is an entirely different matter and different people have differing tolerances. I agree, I personally would be back at work. The issue of infecting others whilst being infectious that might suffer worse and/or increase staff shortages in critical sectors is a matter nobody seems to have resolved. Maybe we have to live with it, but as I've said many times that has consequences although hopefully they are short-term.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

I posted this story in this thread, and how this shows that there will always be risks in life no matter what we do, and once risk is reduced to at a certain level, all we seem to be able to do is transfer it from one cause of pain/suffering/trouble to another.

Put a rubber surface in a childrens playground (instead of head-splitting tarmac) and children just play harder to 'compensate' (or feel safer so take greater risks). Swing higher and faster, jump from higher up climbing frames etc. It's the same with car drivers, add safety features and drivers feel they can push the limits - faster cornering, closer to the vehicle in front.

It has been argued that the greatest all round safety feature which could be provided in a motor vehicle is a sharp iron spike coming out of the steering wheel pressing gently against the chest!