Planned 387 and 377 cascades to Southern and Southeastern in 2025

[Siemens Staines]

Couldn't ID the unit but I've just seen a white ex GN 387 (with Southern logos) working with a red Gatwick 387 at Clapham Junction, so it looks like the /1s are being used on Gatwick Express services as well as South Coast locals

Was it this?

387123 + 387218 1F12 08:54 London Victoria (Central) to Eastbourne (arrives 10:17)

 

[nctd2306]

Was it this?

387123 + 387218 1F12 08:54 London Victoria (Central) to Eastbourne (arrives 10:17)

Most likely yes, in which case I apologise, I hadn't realised there were 387s booked to do non GatEx work out of London!

 

[Sun Chariot]

Most likely yes, in which case I apologise, I hadn't realised there were 387s booked to do non GatEx work out of London!

Yes, 387/2 (GatExp branded) have been doing services to Southampton, along the West Coastway, since the start of June 2024.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Most likely yes, in which case I apologise, I hadn't realised there were 387s booked to do non GatEx work out of London!

Southern use Gatwick Express branded 387s all the time on other services from Victoria. I have many times got one on Victoria/East Croydon even departing from a Gatwick Express platform. All very confusing.

 

[brad465]

This cascade would I think be an ideal opportunity to give the Tonbridge-Redhill shuttle to Southeastern, so that the units Southern currently use can go towards boosting capacity elsewhere, as Southeastern could send fewer Networkers to store to offset the 377s required for this shuttle. There's only 2 or 3 3-cars involved, but given Southern are stretched compared to before the 313s and 455s left, every unit helps.

 

[Stephen42]

This cascade would I think be an ideal opportunity to give the Tonbridge-Redhill shuttle to Southeastern, so that the units Southern currently use can go towards boosting capacity elsewhere, as Southeastern could send fewer Networkers to store to offset the 377s required for this shuttle. There's only 2 or 3 3-cars involved, but given Southern are stretched compared to before the 313s and 455s left, every unit helps.

Wouldn't it be easier just to transfer fewer units over to Southeastern in the first place? The number to be transferred would have been decided based on relative need and what option had the best business case. The 13 is a bit smaller than the potential number from the vinyl wrapping tender so some reallocation may have already happened.

 

[JonathanH]

There's only 2 or 3 3-cars involved, but given Southern are stretched compared to before the 313s and 455s left, every unit helps.

Two nowadays.

I know that no one likes the fact that Southern now run fewer services and shorter formations than they did when they had more units, but are they actually stretched, or providing a service efficiently with a smaller fleet?

Are there actually more instances of Southern being unable to deliver the current timetable now than to deliver the previous timetable before the elimination of the old rolling stock?

This cascade would I think be an ideal opportunity to give the Tonbridge-Redhill shuttle to Southeastern, so that the units Southern currently use can go towards boosting capacity elsewhere, as Southeastern could send fewer Networkers to store to offset the 377s required for this shuttle.

Just as Southern very successfully eliminated the 455s and 313s with no real impact on its network coverage, it seems that Southeastern's priority is to successfully remove the Metro-Cammell Networkers, and set a fleet strategy that means the Networker replacement can be solely for Metro services.

 

[Southern Dvr]

Two nowadays.

I know that no one likes the fact that Southern now run fewer services and shorter formations than they did when they had more units, but are they actually stretched, or providing a service efficiently with a smaller fleet?

Are there actually more instances of Southern being unable to deliver the current timetable now than to deliver the previous timetable before the elimination of the old rolling stock?


Just as Southern very successfully eliminated the 455s and 313s with no real impact on its network coverage, it seems that Southeastern's priority is to successfully remove the Metro-Cammell Networkers, and set a fleet strategy that means the Networker replacement can be solely for Metro services.

No real impact apart from the loss of the routes to Guildford, Milton Keynes and Wimbledon and reduction in frequency on many other routes?

 

[OneOfThe48]

No real impact apart from the loss of the routes to Guildford, Milton Keynes and Wimbledon and reduction in frequency on many other routes?

None of which are due to a shortage of stock. E.g not going to Milton Keynes anymore is 50-50 down to costs and Network Rail not allowing them to

 

[PGAT]

None of which are due to a shortage of stock. E.g not going to Milton Keynes anymore is 50-50 down to costs and Network Rail not allowing them to

I thought that was just Hemel Hempstead?

The last trains to Milton Keynes were in May 2022 coinciding with the withdrawal of the 455s. The rest are victims of the pandemic which haven't been restored. You can argue all day long about whether or not they intended to remove these routes down to cost/track access, but the bottom line is that they can't run anyway because there's not enough rolling stock.

 

[OneOfThe48]

I thought that was just Hemel Hempstead?

The last trains to Milton Keynes were in May 2022 coinciding with the withdrawal of the 455s. The rest are victims of the pandemic which haven't been restored. You can argue all day long about whether or not they intended to remove these routes down to cost/track access, but the bottom line is that they can't run anyway because there's not enough rolling stock.

No longer going to Hemel Hempstead was Network Rail, but I think the original public justification behind leaving Milton Keynes was cost, which is why I said 50-50 (apologies it wasn’t as clear as it could’ve been!).

Though you are absolutely right, I don’t think they’d have the stock to go back to Milton Keynes even if they were allowed/wanted to.

 

[Southern Dvr]

No longer going to Hemel Hempstead was Network Rail, but I think the original public justification behind leaving Milton Keynes was cost, which is why I said 50-50 (apologies it wasn’t as clear as it could’ve been!).

Though you are absolutely right, I don’t think they’d have the stock to go back to Milton Keynes even if they were allowed/wanted to.

GTR dumped Milton in order to provide more 377s to cover for the loss of 43x Class 455.

The Guildford and Wimbledon routes were lost and now cannot come back due to the lack of stock.

Grinstead is now hourly off peak
No Caterham to Victoria services
Limited SN services at Penge West and Anerley

You cannot say the loss of 313/455 had minimal impact on SN. It had a massive affect and is stifling any growth.

 

[swt_passenger]

GTR dumped Milton in order to provide more 377s to cover for the loss of 43x Class 455.

The Guildford and Wimbledon routes were lost and now cannot come back due to the lack of stock.
[…]

Wasn’t Guildford only about 6 trains per day (total) before withdrawal? Not much of a service at all.

 

[brad465]

You cannot say the loss of 313/455 had minimal impact on SN. It had a massive affect and is stifling any growth.

This is why I think Southern should have not only got all the 387s, but not had to allow a subsequent cascade of some 377s to Southeastern. The latter have a tender for a metro fleet replacement that should be fulfilled (and certainly should have been signed off earlier).

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

GTR dumped Milton in order to provide more 377s to cover for the loss of 43x Class 455.

The Guildford and Wimbledon routes were lost and now cannot come back due to the lack of stock.

Grinstead is now hourly off peak
No Caterham to Victoria services
Limited SN services at Penge West and Anerley

You cannot say the loss of 313/455 had minimal impact on SN. It had a massive affect and is stifling any growth.

East Grinstead nearly back to half hourly most of the day.

The Caterham - Victorias were carting around fresh air most of the day

I'd say the fact most of the main liners have been reduced to 8 cars is something that needs sorting and the Reigates would benefit by using the 377/6's on them.

GTR reported mid table growth from last ORR update but thats not split out down to individual brands but im heartened by my use of Southern that its well used across much of the day.

 

[ScotGG]

Two nowadays.

I know that no one likes the fact that Southern now run fewer services and shorter formations than they did when they had more units, but are they actually stretched, or providing a service efficiently with a smaller fleet?

Are there actually more instances of Southern being unable to deliver the current timetable now than to deliver the previous timetable before the elimination of the old rolling stock?


Just as Southern very successfully eliminated the 455s and 313s with no real impact on its network coverage, it seems that Southeastern's priority is to successfully remove the Metro-Cammell Networkers, and set a fleet strategy that means the Networker replacement can be solely for Metro services.

Not quite. Routes saw such crowding since cuts that TfL were looking at running extra London Overground services into London Bridge. Now Southern have the cascade.

This is also before thousands of new homes complete near Southern Metro stations in areas such as the Old Kent road.

Likewise South Eastern Metro can hardly afford to lose stock when it serves areas with some of the UKs highest housing and population growth both current and planned in strategy documents at a local authority and GLA level.

With no tube extension such as the Bakerloo line, Southern and SE metros will need to pick up the slack in places like Lewisham, New Cross, Old Kent Road southern section, parts of Bermondsey away from the Jubilee line etc.

 

[brad465]

This is also before thousands of new homes complete near Southern Metro stations in areas such as the Old Kent road.

Old Kent Road has a new housing number cap in place that can only be lifted if the Bakerloo Line Extension is approved. Lewisham however could do with this extension with the level of housing now and the fact its housing target was recently uplifted by central government (quite where such housing will go though given the dense high rise blocks in the area now).

This is a timely reminder though of how much Southeastern have benefitted from offloading routes onto other operators while retaining rolling stock: throughout their history they gave Redhill-Tonbridge to Southern, but most notably Blackfriars-Sevenoaks and London Bridge-Gillingham/Rainham to Thameslink. Despite this, they still struggle to have stock for widespread 12-car operation (granted platforms/sidings in places also influence this). While we're talking 2 decades at least, if the Bakerloo line to Hayes happens, that's a huge capacity boon for Southeastern, both in terms of stock made available for use elsewhere and paths into London Bridge and Charing X, which would affect the next metro fleet.

 

[bramling]

GTR dumped Milton in order to provide more 377s to cover for the loss of 43x Class 455.

The Guildford and Wimbledon routes were lost and now cannot come back due to the lack of stock.

Grinstead is now hourly off peak
No Caterham to Victoria services
Limited SN services at Penge West and Anerley

You cannot say the loss of 313/455 had minimal impact on SN. It had a massive affect and is stifling any growth.

Meanwhile the GN side is certainly somewhat stretched at the moment, though as ever it’s hard to separate out what’s due to ongoing driver resourcing issues (that have never been fully resolved post-2018), lack of stock, and the delay in class 379 commissioning.

 

[Doomotron]

Old Kent Road has a new housing number cap in place that can only be lifted if the Bakerloo Line Extension is approved. Lewisham however could do with this extension with the level of housing now and the fact its housing target was recently uplifted by central government (quite where such housing will go though given the dense high rise blocks in the area now).

This is a timely reminder though of how much Southeastern have benefitted from offloading routes onto other operators while retaining rolling stock: throughout their history they gave Redhill-Tonbridge to Southern, but most notably Blackfriars-Sevenoaks and London Bridge-Gillingham/Rainham to Thameslink. Despite this, they still struggle to have stock for widespread 12-car operation (granted platforms/sidings in places also influence this). While we're talking 2 decades at least, if the Bakerloo line to Hayes happens, that's a huge capacity boon for Southeastern, both in terms of stock made available for use elsewhere and paths into London Bridge and Charing X, which would affect the next metro fleet.

Even though it's somewhat off-topic, I do wonder if there could be a business case for a generous order of a generic EMU design, which could be spread between Great Northern, Southern and Southeastern. Ideally it would be a single pool, like the Silverlink/Central Class 350s. The 387s already serve this purpose (even if they weren't meant to), but there aren't enough of them to cover for the limitations in the fleets of all three operators.

If it's worth it, I could start a separate thread to discuss this.
Following advice from the moderators, I have started a new thread to discuss this.

 

[ScotGG]

Old Kent Road has a new housing number cap in place that can only be lifted if the Bakerloo Line Extension is approved. Lewisham however could do with this extension with the level of housing now and the fact its housing target was recently uplifted by central government (quite where such housing will go though given the dense high rise blocks in the area now).

The cap on the Old Kent Road before any Bakerloo extension is still many thousands. About 8k out of 20k?

Currently I believe around 3k+ homes are underway in the vicinity of the road and some more closer to Bermondsey. I can't remember the name of one major site of more than a thousand homes but a couple of cranes went up over xmas. It's near the Aldi supermarket being rebuilt with two tower blocks. That'll all add many passengers to Southern Metro which are the closest stations.

 

[Kite159]

Regarding use of 387s on Southern on services from London which are not Gatwick Express branded trains, other than that 18:XX London bridge - Bognor is use of the 387s on Victoria - Eastbourne more ad-hoc or is it a set diagram?

 

[Southern Dvr]

Regarding use of 387s on Southern on services from London which are not Gatwick Express branded trains, other than that 18:XX London bridge - Bognor is use of the 387s on Victoria - Eastbourne more ad-hoc or is it a set diagram?

Various London to Littlehampton & London to Eastbourne workings.

 

[physics34]

No real impact apart from the loss of the routes to Guildford, Milton Keynes and Wimbledon and reduction in frequency on many other routes?

I'd say more stock for the peak Cat /Tatt to Vic and more capacity on Mole Valley/Hackbridge line at weekends should be prioritised.

 

[JonathanH]

peak Cat /Tatt to Vic

Is there a reason this one keeps coming up? Is there a genuine capacity issue on either branch in the peaks? Is it that much of a hardship to change at Purley or East Croydon?

 

[physics34]

Is there a reason this one keeps coming up? Is there a genuine capacity issue on either branch in the peaks? Is it that much of a hardship to change at Purley or East Croydon?

There have been 4 trains an hour from tatt and cat in the peaks for decades, until covid, now it's two, so there was always call for these services. It does of course gives more london options.. also Purley Oaks and South Croydon passengers can't currently get a seat.

 

[Southern Dvr]

8-cars have started turning up in the peaks now on the London Bridge workings and they are absolutely rammed.

As mentioned elsewhere, Caterham to Victoria is definitely a route with demand. And yes, changing at E Croydon or Purley is inconvenient - neither station can handle the crowds well and soon as there is disruption its even worse.

 

[PGAT]

Surely an easy way to provide extra capacity is to divert the 0700 to London Bridge away from Sutton and start it at Caterham instead

 

[Peter Sarf]

I am noticing off peak Southern services from East Croydon are arriving really full and often delayed. This causes even more delays while boarding at East Croydon - often involving running a few coach lengths to a more positive doorway. Perhaps these 8car services need to go back to being 12car as they have probably been accumulating delays since before before Gatwick possibly right back from the coast.

 

[Sun Chariot]

Today's 1N54 Brighton to Southampton turn had 387123. It flashed past me as I walked the dog along a rail-side public footpath.
Come longer daylight, I'll be out with camera as well as dog.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

There have been 4 trains an hour from tatt and cat in the peaks for decades, until covid, now it's two, so there was always call for these services. It does of course gives more london options.. also Purley Oaks and South Croydon passengers can't currently get a seat.

IIRC, it was 4tph to Caterham but 4tph to Coulsdon Town, of which 2tph went forward to Tattenham Corner, no?