Portsmouth Harbour-Cardiff Central GWR

[Western Sunset]

Thanks for that; looks like Frome will get busy.
So it looks like S&C renewals. Hope they also check the condition of some of the signal posts in the area as many look quite rusty. Pity they couldn't reinstate the track to the other side of the island opposite plat 1 too, at Westbury. A possible temp platform between Hawkeridge/Heywood Rd sounds interesting...

 

[Snow1964]

Following the comments about housing and growth, done another extract of ORR station data

Picked 2000-01 as round number about 20 years ago
Picked 2018-19 as last full year before any covid effects

Rank (national, station name, 2023-23 entance & exits
2000-01, 2018-19, % latest vs 2000-01, % latest vs 2018-19

37 Cardiff Central, 10,185,022, 6,707,944, 12,934,304, 151.8%, 78.7%
40 Bristol Temple Meads, 9,291,680, 4,184,675, 11,367,652, 222.0%, 81.7%
72 Southampton Central, 5,495,672, 4,072,160, 6,664,714, 135.0%, 82.5%
73 Bath Spa, 5,468,466, 3,009,640, 6,538,056, 181.7%, 83.6%
203, Newport (South Wales), 2,339,566, 1,466,693, 2,745,064, 159.5%, 85.2%
273 Fratton, 1,775,756, 994,274, 1,735,300, 178.6%, 102.3%
278 Portsmouth Harbour, 1,746,574, 499,012, 2,100,528, 350.0%, 83.1%
281 Portsmouth and Southsea, 1,707,210, 2,542,049, 2,053,186, 67.2%, 83.1%
287 Salisbury, 1,621,562, 1,317,775, 1,979,880, 123.1%, 81.9%,
323 Fareham, 1,415,156 , 1,103,362, 1,701,386, 128.3%, 83.2%
568 Cosham, 765,158, 588,460, 925,066, 130.0%, 82.7%
586 Trowbridge, 734,768, 404,998, 933,894, 181.4%, 78.7%
752 Filton Abbey Wood, 521,474, 336,183, 901,872, 155.1%, 57.8%
757 Westbury, 518,996, 231,093, 548,720, 224.6%, 94.6%
842 Bradford-On-Avon, 426,700, 211,968, 534,086, 201.3%, 79.9%
848 Keynsham, 418,586, 118,047, 511,642, 354.6%, 81.8%
886 Romsey, 384,366, 286,468, 520,856, 134.2%, 73.8%
1020 Oldfield Park, 297,810, 127,783, 332,654, 233.1%, 89.5%
1026 Warminster, 295,452, 247,665, 348,658, 119.3%, 84.7%
1360 Severn Tunnel Junction, 165,992, 90,946, 229,362, 182.5%, 72.4%
1751 Patchway, 77,776, 11,035, 104,078, 704.8%, 74.7%
1990 Freshford, 44,094, 19,549, 53,368, 225.6%, 82.6%
2179 Avoncliff, 23,402, 8,866, 24,396, 264.0%, 95.9%
2300 Dilton Marsh, 12,076, 10,119, 17,004, 119.3%, 71.0%

Average 2018-19 was 195%% of 2000-01
Average 2022-23 is 82% of 2018-19

So although at 82% of pre pandemic, still 60% above 22 years ago

 

[Mike Machin]

This is the equivalent of a restaurant not having enough tables. No restaurant manager in history would ever be charged by trading standards for being 'too busy'.

Yes and No. If a restaurant were to be consistently full, it would advise customers that there are no tables and suggest alternative dates.If a restaurant were to take bookings and a deposit and when one turned-up they say, 'ah yes, sorry, you'll have to stand-up in the car park, or you can sit on the kitchen floor for your meal, take it or leave it, but you're not getting your deposit back' - trading standards would soon intervene.

If this route is to persist with the dismal service, lack of seats and totally unsuitable rolling stock, there should be a clearly visible prominent advisory on the website warning that - "This route is operated by older diesel trains which do not offer the level of comfort found in trains used on other longer-distance services. Trains are often formed with fewer carriages than normal and this can lead to severe overcrowding at busy times, and if travelling for time-critical purposes, please bare in mind that cancellations can be more frequent than services you may have experienced on other routes. If you agree to these conditions, click here to book.' - or something similar.

To take money in good faith without making people of the contract they are entering into is dishonest.

 

[CBlue]

The stark reality is so different I really do think that offering to sell tickets, knowing how bad the conditions will potentially be constitutes rouge trading

I take it someone's left red-faced as a result?

 

[Western Sunset]

Following the comments about housing and growth, done another extract of ORR station data

Picked 2000-01 as round number about 20 years ago
Picked 2018-19 as last full year before any covid effects

Rank (national, station name, 2023-23 entance & exits
2000-01, 2018-19, % latest vs 2000-01, % latest vs 2018-19

37 Cardiff Central, 10,185,022, 6,707,944, 12,934,304, 151.8%, 78.7%
40 Bristol Temple Meads, 9,291,680, 4,184,675, 11,367,652, 222.0%, 81.7%
72 Southampton Central, 5,495,672, 4,072,160, 6,664,714, 135.0%, 82.5%
73 Bath Spa, 5,468,466, 3,009,640, 6,538,056, 181.7%, 83.6%
203, Newport (South Wales), 2,339,566, 1,466,693, 2,745,064, 159.5%, 85.2%
273 Fratton, 1,775,756, 994,274, 1,735,300, 178.6%, 102.3%
278 Portsmouth Harbour, 1,746,574, 499,012, 2,100,528, 350.0%, 83.1%
281 Portsmouth and Southsea, 1,707,210, 2,542,049, 2,053,186, 67.2%, 83.1%
287 Salisbury, 1,621,562, 1,317,775, 1,979,880, 123.1%, 81.9%,
323 Fareham, 1,415,156 , 1,103,362, 1,701,386, 128.3%, 83.2%
568 Cosham, 765,158, 588,460, 925,066, 130.0%, 82.7%
586 Trowbridge, 734,768, 404,998, 933,894, 181.4%, 78.7%
752 Filton Abbey Wood, 521,474, 336,183, 901,872, 155.1%, 57.8%
757 Westbury, 518,996, 231,093, 548,720, 224.6%, 94.6%
842 Bradford-On-Avon, 426,700, 211,968, 534,086, 201.3%, 79.9%
848 Keynsham, 418,586, 118,047, 511,642, 354.6%, 81.8%
886 Romsey, 384,366, 286,468, 520,856, 134.2%, 73.8%
1020 Oldfield Park, 297,810, 127,783, 332,654, 233.1%, 89.5%
1026 Warminster, 295,452, 247,665, 348,658, 119.3%, 84.7%
1360 Severn Tunnel Junction, 165,992, 90,946, 229,362, 182.5%, 72.4%
1751 Patchway, 77,776, 11,035, 104,078, 704.8%, 74.7%
1990 Freshford, 44,094, 19,549, 53,368, 225.6%, 82.6%
2179 Avoncliff, 23,402, 8,866, 24,396, 264.0%, 95.9%
2300 Dilton Marsh, 12,076, 10,119, 17,004, 119.3%, 71.0%

Average 2018-19 was 195%% of 2000-01
Average 2022-23 is 82% of 2018-19

So although at 82% of pre pandemic, still 60% above 22 years ago

Very interesting; thanks. Think the figure I've highlighted for Fratton is incorrect.

Avoncliff has bounced back well. Less so for Abbey Wood; maybe due to more home-working at the MOD and fewer students travelling to/from UWE.

 

[Deepgreen]

For whatever reason, this route never seems to be a priority. Quite frustrating having two car trains between Cardiff and Portsmouth when you see longer ones on shorter routes.

Indeed, but it's not the length of route per se that's important, but its busy-ness. This one happens to be long and busy! The 'efficient' rail privatisation model has produced this sort of rubbish.

 

[JonathanH]

The 'efficient' rail privatisation model has produced this sort of rubbish.

Really? It was BR who first put 2-car 158s on the route.

 

[The exile]

Very interesting; thanks. Think the figure I've highlighted for Fratton is incorrect.

Avoncliff has bounced back well. Less so for Abbey Wood; maybe due to more home-working at the MOD and fewer students travelling to/from UWE.

Personal observation - Abbey Wood traffic seems to have picked up quite a bit this Autumn

 

[Snow1964]

Really? It was BR who first put 2-car 158s on the route.

True but that was in late 1980s.
Although who at the time predicted they would still be there 35 years later must have had very good crystal ball.

The ORR station usage figures only go back to late 1990s, but a number of the stations in middle of the line (and ignoring big stations served by multiple lines) are now over 200% of the late 1990s figures (and were over 250% pre-pandemic). I suspect some stations are nearer 300% of the 1980s figures

 

[Mike Machin]

I take it someone's left red-faced as a result?

Don't you just hate predictive text and not checking your own posts!

 

[Dai Corner]

Personal observation - Abbey Wood traffic seems to have picked up quite a bit this Autumn

Anything to do with the Temple Meads - Abbey Wood shuttles? I can't remember when they were introduced.

 

[Western Sunset]

Anything to do with the Temple Meads - Abbey Wood shuttles? I can't remember when they were introduced.

Possibly, though they seem very lightly used when I see them.

 

[Snow1964]

Still lots of 2car trains appearing on the line.
Obviously there is a shortage of rolling stock, but is there a serious plan to fix the shortage.

I know it has been suggested might get some cast off 150 or 158 from TfW in year or two. So I checked with friend in Wales and he forwarded a recent TfW graphic, (sorry don't know how to insert it as was picture in email) It compared inherited fleet to current, to when all new trains in service. For TfW is 173 trains made up of 484 carriages.

Try as I will, adding up 77 class 197 (180 vehicles), 11 class 231 (44), 24 class 756 (89), and 36 class 398 (108), can't get to those numbers

Even adding 8-16 retained class 153s, 5 class 230s (15), and about 40 mk4s still struggle to get to 484 vehicles, which suggests might be retaining some others.

So if TfW don't release 158s, what happens to Cardiff-Portsmouth, which will soon be oldest trains serving Cardiff (although mk4 similar age)

 

[3RDGEN]

So if TfW don't release 158s, what happens to Cardiff-Portsmouth, which will soon be oldest trains serving Cardiff (although mk4 similar age)

TfW will release some 150's during 2024 and GWR may take some of those which could allow an internal cascade of 158/16x units to the Portsmouth route. Similarly TfW 158's will be released later, maybe 2025, and again GWR could take some of them for further strengthening.

In the shorter term we are now out of leaf fall season so fleet availability should improve in the new year and once the 16x refurbishment ends that should give a slight gain in available units too. Beyond that there's nothing else available so its likely to be another difficult summer period.

 

[Clarence Yard]

The DfT hasn’t yet decided where any ex TFW rolling stock is going to end up. You have the possibility of Northern, GWR and Chiltern receiving this stock and nobody is any the wiser where the DfT are going to place the TfW 150, 158 and 175 stock.

The DfT seem to be playing the same game with the 175 fleet as they are with the 379’s and waiting for a decent lease offer. Not one of the three TOCs mentioned is keen on 175 fleet but, given the current loadings at all three TOCs, they will end up with someone - it is just a question of who is going to be told to have them.

The one pointer to the TfW 158 fleet is that the ROSCO is very keen that all their Perkins engined units are in one TOC and could be playing that into any lease quotes or DfT discussions. That then puts Northern as the favourite for the 158 units.

 

[FGW_DID]

Obviously there is a shortage of SERVICEABLE rolling stock…..

Fixed it for you!

 

[Snow1964]

Fixed it for you!

I would add in right place, to shortage of serviceable.

No point in having them serviceable if stuck in say Reading

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

The one pointer to the TfW 158 fleet is that the ROSCO is very keen that all their Perkins engined units are in one TOC and could be playing that into any lease quotes or DfT discussions. That then puts Northern as the favourite for the 158 units.

Following up with a few swaps with EMR could enable Northern to use an entirely Perkins 2-158 fleet with EMR now having an entirely Cummins fleet too, perhaps.

 

[Dan G]

The DfT hasn’t yet decided where any ex TFW rolling stock is going to end up. You have the possibility of Northern, GWR and Chiltern receiving this stock and nobody is any the wiser where the DfT are going to place the TfW 150, 158 and 175 stock.

The DfT seem to be playing the same game with the 175 fleet as they are with the 379’s and waiting for a decent lease offer. Not one of the three TOCs mentioned is keen on 175 fleet but, given the current loadings at all three TOCs, they will end up with someone - it is just a question of who is going to be told to have them.

The one pointer to the TfW 158 fleet is that the ROSCO is very keen that all their Perkins engined units are in one TOC and could be playing that into any lease quotes or DfT discussions. That then puts Northern as the favourite for the 158 units.

Shame DfT don't just make a decision so a better service can be provided, but I know that's not their priority.

 

[The exile]

Anything to do with the Temple Meads - Abbey Wood shuttles? I can't remember when they were introduced.

Well, I was just comparing numbers getting off the trains I use in the mornings (which aren’t usually the shuttles).

 

[Parallel]

To be fair, Trowbridge, Westbury and Bradford-on-Avon now receive three trains an hour to/from Bath and Bristol which is pretty good. Salisbury and Warminster have also received a second train most hours to/from Bristol, it seems the Bristol to Cardiff and Salisbury - Portsmouth sections have suffered the most (probably a capacity decrease with all the short forms). Doesn’t help the roads aren’t brilliant between Bristol/Bath and Salisbury/Southampton/Portsmouth either, so it’s a fairly slow ride by car.

 

[Snow1964]

To be fair, Trowbridge, Westbury and Bradford-on-Avon now receive three trains an hour to/from Bath and Bristol which is pretty good. Salisbury and Warminster have also received a second train most hours to/from Bristol, it seems the Bristol to Cardiff and Salisbury - Portsmouth sections have suffered the most (probably a capacity decrease with all the short forms). Doesn’t help the roads aren’t brilliant between Bristol/Bath and Salisbury/Southampton/Portsmouth either, so it’s a fairly slow ride by car.

Whilst these 3 stations do get extra train, they are fairly badly spaced each hour. Note there are over 30 minute gaps between some trains. It's not like these consecutive stations get a 20 minute interval service.

Eg from Westbury, 11:04*, 11:12, 11:43, then 12:02* etc
from Bristol, at Westbury, 11:01*, 11:34, 11:52 then 12:05*

the asterisk are Portsmouth-Cardiff, not even hourly, but 62 minutes apart one direction, 64 minutes apart in other direction.

All rather smacks of low priority route, that is fitted around other services.

Bath, Bristol and Westbury have other services, but they are rather better spaced

 

[JonathanH]

not like these consecutive stations get a 20 minute interval service.

Eg from Westbury, 11:04*, 11:12, 11:43, then 12:02* etc
from Bristol, at Westbury, 11:01*, 11:34, 11:52 then 12:05*

How could they ever be 20 minutes apart at all locations between Westbury and Bristol if they don't all have the same calling pattern?

There are two obvious constraints, the half hourly service from London, and the different calling patterns.

 

[Snow1964]

How could they ever be 20 minutes apart at all locations between Westbury and Bristol if they don't all have the same calling pattern?

There are two obvious constraints, the half hourly service from London, and the different calling patterns.

You missed the point, if Cardiff-Portsmouth have same calling pattern during day, why do times vary by 4 minutes each hour. They clearly lower priority for even timetable slots.

My reply had been to 3 stations listed, which although they now see 3 trains per hour, the trains serving all of them are bunched into less than half hour, then nothing for over 30 minutes. My point is third train didn't result in timetable being altered to space them out, still got an approx half hourly timetable with extra train run in one of the gaps, and nothing in other 30+ minute gap. Clearly run to tick a box, not for overall service improvements

 

[Parallel]

How could they ever be 20 minutes apart at all locations between Westbury and Bristol if they don't all have the same calling pattern?

There are two obvious constraints, the half hourly service from London, and the different calling patterns.

Indeed. I’d argue you wouldn’t want a 20 minute frequency. You want them to relieve the Cardiff-Portsmouth trains, so running them no more than 10 minutes before will mean they are more likely to abstract some of the passengers in an attempt to reduce crowding.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Indeed. I’d argue you wouldn’t want a 20 minute frequency. You want them to relieve the Cardiff-Portsmouth trains, so running them no more than 10 minutes before will mean they are more likely to abstract some of the passengers in an attempt to reduce crowding.

Which is what they do leaving Bristol about 15 minutes in front of the Portsmouth and Westbury 10 in front of the train from Portsmouth.

You missed the point, if Cardiff-Portsmouth have same calling pattern during day, why do times vary by 4 minutes each hour. They clearly lower priority for even timetable slots.

No they didn’t miss the point, you’ve miss understood how timetabling works. There is no such thing as priority for even timetable slots.

The Cardiff - Portsmouths may have the same calling patterns but other traffic on the same route doesn’t (ie freight).

Look at Swansea - Paddington the same calling pattern but again trains vary by a few minutes.

It’s called flexing rights where Network Rail can flex paths by a few minutes to satisfy all the necessary access rights. On routes where there is a high amount of freight all running at slightly different speeds that can be what often causes timetable variations by the odd minute or two.

This happens on all sorts of routes - look at York on ECML expresses and you will see the same variation.

Totally standard paths are usually only possible when there is a lot of spare capacity or all the trains on a route do the same thing.

 

[Topological]

Mildly off topic, but presumably they can be put into the public timetable at the same time past each hour based on the exact minute that the earliest of the train departs.

Depending on the amount of flexing I doubt that would cause delay repay to kick in.

Swansea always amuses me for the GWR, there are some xx22 and some xx23. It makes little sense but I do not think anyone gets that stressed by it. Mostly they leave bang on time, but then get stuck entering Cardiff.

 

[paul1609]

Very interesting; thanks. Think the figure I've highlighted for Fratton is incorrect.

Avoncliff has bounced back well. Less so for Abbey Wood; maybe due to more home-working at the MOD and fewer students travelling to/from UWE.

Think you'll find that the figure for Fratton is correct, it's now the busiest station in Portsmouth. There's a row brewing about the adequacy of the station to deal with the crowds. There was allegedly an incident on Saturday after the football when several families stumbled as the crowd surged to try and get on the 2 car GWR that had been sent as the first train to clear a crowd of 18k.

 

[Snow1964]

GWR website has interesting banner headline under travel updates today, (actually it is same for all GWR lines)

Travel Updates. Last updated 09:09
There is a good service across our network

Buy cheap train tickets | Great Western Railway

Buy now and save money with cheap train tickets. With no booking fees you can travel with confidence when travelling with GWR.

www.gwr.com

Anyone else think it ought to say, no GWR trains operating today, services resume tomorrow, Paddington station closed tomorrow

0/100 for accuracy today

 

[RedPostJunc]

Travel Updates. Last updated 09:09
There is a good service across our network

Will GWR be able to use this to boost their performance stats?

0 late trains.
0% cancellations.