Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[Noddy]

There was a piece in The Grauniad a couple of days ago about how Rosslare, which has a number of routes to the Continent, is growing rapidly. However, I think it is not so much distance that is the problem for UK exports, but the paperwork at an EU—non-EU border and the risk of delays to goods in transit.

Indeed, to serve the Irish-EU market without having to transition overland through the UK. Which is also good (an actual benefit of Brexit?) for the UK-less lorries and associated traffic/pollution.

 

[SteveM70]

There was a piece in The Grauniad a couple of days ago about how Rosslare, which has a number of routes to the Continent, is growing rapidly. However, I think it is not so much distance that is the problem for UK exports, but the paperwork at an EU—non-EU border and the risk of delays to goods in transit.

If businesses are relocating to NI in any volume, I suspect the increased demand on ports will be more for incoming products than outgoing. The volume of B2C sales going out by air will be greater than the volume produced locally

 

[geoffk]

Well, Horizon has just been re-opened for the UK.

Must have missed that announcement - good news then.

 

[Howardh]

While I don’t disagree with your point I think you need to have another look at where Northern Ireland is and the distances you’re talking about! Hull-Rotterdam is approx 220 miles. Rosslare-Rotterdam is approx 640 miles. Even Rosslare-Brest is 290 miles and I don’t think that is a commercial route (currently). Also factor in that Rosslare is 160 miles drive (well over 3 hours in a lorry) from the N Ireland border.

Weren't we - the UK - supposed to be having trade deals with countries like Australia, India, New Zealand etc? Last time I looked shipping goods to and from there was a little greater distance than Rosslaire > Cherbourg. Brexit can't really have it both ways, thinking that Ireland > Continent is too far but Sydney > Felixstowe isn't.

 

[Gloster]

Weren't we - the UK - supposed to be having trade deals with countries like Australia, India, New Zealand etc? Last time I looked shipping goods to and from there was a little greater distance than Rosslaire > Cherbourg. Brexit can't really have it both ways, thinking that Ireland > Continent is too far but Sydney > Felixstowe isn't.

We have a deal with Australia and New Zealand. However, former Environment Secretary and UKIP candidate George Eustice has described it as ‘not actually a very good deal’. It will allow considerable access to the UK market by Australian agricultural goods, including hormone-treated beef, which is likely to undercut and further impoverish our agricultural sector, while the advantages to the UK’s export industries are somewhat less clear as they seem to be hedged about with small print. We gave away a lot more than we got in order to get a trade deal that could be claimed to be the start of Britain’s unhinged renaissance. Still, it produced lots of photo opportunities for Liz Truss, then Foreign Secretary, so it must have been a Good Thing.

 

[Noddy]

Weren't we - the UK - supposed to be having trade deals with countries like Australia, India, New Zealand etc? Last time I looked shipping goods to and from there was a little greater distance than Rosslaire > Cherbourg. Brexit can't really have it both ways, thinking that Ireland > Continent is too far but Sydney > Felixstowe isn't.

All I’m saying is that shipping from Northern Ireland is considerably further than shipping from Hull (Rosslare-Cherbourg is 360 miles), which was your original point.

Whether the additional shipping/transportation costs outweighs the reduction in paperwork costs I don’t know. But I suspect that it, when combined with cost of moving and the risk of Irish reunification, means we won’t see large scale moves of industry from GB to NI.

 

[THC]

the risk of Irish reunification

Plenty of us see that as an opportunity

THC

 

[Noddy]

Plenty of us see that as an opportunity

THC

Indeed-but businesses in Northern Ireland won’t!

 

[DC1989]

Rishi Sunak -

If we get this right, if we get this framework implemented, if we get the executive back up and running here, Northern Ireland is in the unbelievably special position – unique position in the entire world, European continent – in having privileged access, not just to the UK home market, which is enormous, the fifth biggest in the world, but also the European Union single market. Nobody else has that. No one. Only you guys. Only here. And that is the prize.

I can tell you, when I go around the world and talk to businesses, they know. They’re like, ‘That’s interesting, if you guys get this sorted, then we want to invest in Northern Ireland.’

Because nowhere else does that that exist. That’s like the world’s most exciting economic zone.

Wow !! Sounds great !! Can we get the rest of the UK to benefit from this so called amazing single market!?

 

[nw1]

Rishi Sunak -


Wow !! Sounds great !! Can we get the rest of the UK to benefit from this so called amazing single market!?

Quite.

Perhaps Mr Sunak would like to explain why he is denying access to the single market from the rest of the UK.

Frightened of Mr Anderson and Ms Braverman stabbing him in the back, perhaps?

 

[Broucek]

Leaving aside all the practical issues, I wonder if one of the problems of businesses moving to NI may be around staffing.?

Existing GB-based staff may be reluctant to relocate to NI and there may be issues with availabiltiy of local staff in some specialisms given how big a part of the NI economy is public/para-public sector. But there are people on here with local knowledge who perhaps can comment better?

 

[SteveM70]

Quite.

Perhaps Mr Sunak would like to explain why he is denying access to the single market from the rest of the UK.

Frightened of Mr Anderson and Ms Braverman stabbing him in the back, perhaps?

I'm sure at PMQs somebody will ask Sunak this, and he'll reply that he is busy delivering the people's priorities whereas Labour have no policies of their own, etc etc.

All utterly futile and more than a little depressing

 

[edwin_m]

While I don’t disagree with your point I think you need to have another look at where Northern Ireland is and the distances you’re talking about! Hull-Rotterdam is approx 220 miles. Rosslare-Rotterdam is approx 640 miles. Even Rosslare-Brest is 290 miles and I don’t think that is a commercial route (currently). Also factor in that Rosslare is 160 miles drive (well over 3 hours in a lorry) from the N Ireland border.

It looks bit different if you factor in a delay at a UK port that could (moreorless at random) be anything from an hour to a couple of days.

 

[DelayRepay]

I'm sure at PMQs somebody will ask Sunak this, and he'll reply that he is busy delivering the people's priorities whereas Labour have no policies of their own, etc etc.

All utterly futile and more than a little depressing

I think an SNP MP made that point last in Parliament last night.

Personally I would vote for a party that proposed re-joining the single market, but I think it will be several years before anyone's brave enough to make it a manifesto commitment.

 

[jfollows]

The 1922 committee appears to have indicated almost complete approval with Rishi Sunak's plan (https://www.theguardian.com/politic...eland-deal-brexit-tories-labour-politics-live).

39m ago18.48 GMT
Rishi Sunak’s meeting with the 1922 Committee was the first time there were no hostile questions in 18 years, according to MP Daniel Kawczynski.

Kawczynski, a Brexiter, told Sky News: “I think all Conservative MPs who stood up to ask questions recognised the extraordinary [measures] that the prime minister has implemented over the last few months in trying to secure this agreement and he seems to have pulled off something which had been impossible for Boris Johnson and impossible for Theresa May.”

Steve Baker MP said everybody realised the deal was “as good as we’re going to get” and the prime minister “won’t be losing any votes on this”.

If that's all true, then he should win any vote without the need for Labour's support, which is, I think, politically important for him, and makes it all the more likely that he'll stand by his comments to the DUP reported today that they're not going to get a chance to "amend" anything, they can effectively like it or lump it.

 

[THC]

The 1922 committee appears to have indicated almost complete approval with Rishi Sunak's plan )https://www.theguardian.com/politic...eland-deal-brexit-tories-labour-politics-live).

If that's all true, then he should win any vote without the need for Labour's support, which is, I think, politically important for him, and makes it all the more likely that he'll stand by his comments to the DUP reported today that they're not going to get a chance to "amend" anything, they can effectively like it or lump it.

The DUP can of course like it or lump it as you say, but they still could refuse to take their seats in the NI Assembly, which would not only prevent proper operation of elements of the framework but lead to a resumption of direct rule, a potentially catastrophic own goal to match their backing of a hard Brexit in the first place.

THC

 

[duncanp]

The 1922 committee appears to have indicated almost complete approval with Rishi Sunak's plan )https://www.theguardian.com/politic...eland-deal-brexit-tories-labour-politics-live).

If that's all true, then he should win any vote without the need for Labour's support, which is, I think, politically important for him, and makes it all the more likely that he'll stand by his comments to the DUP reported today that they're not going to get a chance to "amend" anything, they can effectively like it or lump it.

The DUP are trying to have a go at the King, saying that he has "..jeopardised the monarchy.." by meeting Ursula Von Der Leyen.

This is a complete load of rubbish, as he played no part in negotiating the deal, and only met her after the deal had been agreed.

It shows that the DUP are backed into a corner, and are starting to realise how isolated they are. They won't be able to stop the deal from going through, and they know that Sir Keir Starmer will just tell them to bog off if he becomes Prime Minister after the next election.

There is no Brexit deal that will satisfy everyone. What happens next will depend on how the deal works out in practice over the remaining years of this parliament, and the five years of the next parliament.

King Charles 'will regret' decision to take tea with EU chief

DUP’s Brexit spokesman says monarch has been put in a ‘very, very dangerous position’ with unionists furious at perceived ‘politicising’

www.telegraph.co.uk

DUP accuses King Charles of ‘jeopardising the Monarchy’ with Ursula von der Leyen meeting​

Party’s Brexit spokesman says monarch has been put in a ‘very, very dangerous position’ with unionists furious at perceived ‘politicising’

The King has “jeopardised” the Monarchy by meeting the European Commission president and will “regret” its actions, a leading figure in the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has said as it refused to rule out complaint to Buckingham Palace.

Sammy Wilson, the DUP’s Brexit spokesman, accused King Charles of “politicising the Monarchy” and taking sides in the dispute between his party and the Government over the deal in Northern Ireland.

The DUP is furious that the King met with Ursula von der Leyen on Monday after the Windsor Framework Brexit deal was announced.

Speaking to Chopper’s Politics podcast, Sammy Wilson said: “It’s a decision that the King will come to regret in the future.”

He continued: “I don’t know whether it was his choice, or whether the Government persuaded him to do it, but I think it’s a very, very dangerous position for him to have taken.

“There’s no part of the United Kingdom that gives adherence to the Monarchy and respects the Monarchy as much as unionists in Northern Ireland all throughout the Troubles.

“As governments have come and gone, and governments have betrayed us, the one stable thing that stayed in that was the Monarchy.

“It’s a very, very dangerous thing that has been done. And don’t forget, this is just not the Monarchy taking sides in a dispute between the DUP and the Government.”

Mr Wilson said he did not know why the King met Mrs von der Leyen: “The King has to explain that. But the one thing I do know is that it is a bad decision.

“And if he keeps going down this route and politicising the Monarchy, then the status that his mother had, he will never acquire.

“And he will put the Monarchy in jeopardy because people will simply see it as partisan rather than a national institution.”

Mr Wilson did not rule out a complaint to Buckingham Palace. He said: “We haven’t discussed whether we complain to the Palace.

“We don’t want to drag the Palace into our politics either. We have more respect for the Monarchy than that. And we don’t expect the Monarch to take sides with us because we recognise that that is dangerous.”

On the same podcast, Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, defended the King saying that he was “sincere about Northern Ireland”.

He added: “And it might well be - and I’ve no inside knowledge - that the King knows perfectly well what risk he’s taken and that His Majesty has .... possibly chosen to take that risk because Northern Ireland is so dear to him.”

A spokesman for 10 Downing Street said, “it is a matter for His Majesty who he accepts invitations from” and stressed: “The King has met a number of leaders in recent weeks and this is no different.”

A spokesman for Buckingham Palace said: “The King is pleased to meet any world leader if they are visiting Britain and it is the Government’s advice that he should do so.”

 

[edwin_m]

The DUP can of course like it or lump it as you say, but they still could refuse to take their seats in the NI Assembly, which would not only prevent proper operation of elements of the framework but lead to a resumption of direct rule, a potentially catastrophic own goal to match their backing of a hard Brexit in the first place.

THC

Presumably the "Stormont Brake" wouldn't be useable if Stormont wasn't in session.

It's also been pointed out that NI would lose access to the British market if it chose to join the Republic.

 

[bangor-toad]

Leaving aside all the practical issues, I wonder if one of the problems of businesses moving to NI may be around staffing.?

Existing GB-based staff may be reluctant to relocate to NI and there may be issues with availabiltiy of local staff in some specialisms given how big a part of the NI economy is public/para-public sector. But there are people on here with local knowledge who perhaps can comment better?

Skilled staff availability will be a bit of a challenge.

We've just hired about 10 people (PhD level) across two sites in NI and only one application was from someone who didn't need an employment visa. Fortunately, for us, this isn't a huge issue but it's quite telling.

For other types of role there are jobs out there for many. The NI unemployment rate is comparatively low at 2.8% but our employment rate is much under the UK average at only 71.3% (See ONS Link). This means it can be a challenge to recruit if your employment offer is poor in that you can't tempt someone to either move jobs or get one when they weren't working before.

I suspect we will see a lot of NI investment. For the last few years any warehouse near the border has sold almost instantly and there has been a steady but discreet level of companies opening sites around Belfast over the last few years. There will be new jobs and staff to fill them.

Cheers,
Mr Toad

 

[THC]

Presumably the "Stormont Brake" wouldn't be useable if Stormont wasn't in session.

It's also been pointed out that NI would lose access to the British market if it chose to join the Republic.

Then the six counties would no longer be "NI" but part of a 32-county state, which would automatically become a full EU member following the guarantee that Leo Varadkar obtained from the EU in his first spell as Taoiseach. Access to the British market would not be lost to businesses in the north-east of the island, as trade would be permitted on the same terms as the remainder of the single market.

THC

 

[XAM2175]

Presumably the "Stormont Brake" wouldn't be useable if Stormont wasn't in session.

Yes, it's deliberately set up to be an incentive in that regard.

 

[Broucek]

Skilled staff availability will be a bit of a challenge.

We've just hired about 10 people (PhD level) across two sites in NI and only one application was from someone who didn't need an employment visa. Fortunately, for us, this isn't a huge issue but it's quite telling.

For other types of role there are jobs out there for many. The NI unemployment rate is comparatively low at 2.8% but our employment rate is much under the UK average at only 71.3% (See ONS Link). This means it can be a challenge to recruit if your employment offer is poor in that you can't tempt someone to either move jobs or get one when they weren't working before.

I suspect we will see a lot of NI investment. For the last few years any warehouse near the border has sold almost instantly and there has been a steady but discreet level of companies opening sites around Belfast over the last few years. There will be new jobs and staff to fill them.

Cheers,
Mr Toad

Thanks for the thoughtful and illuminating post

Skilled staff availability is a problem right across Europe but I suspect it’s worse in NI

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Brexiteers won't be happy (but they were never going to be anyway, as the immigration problems are what they mostly cared about and Brexit has done nothing to help that; indeed it has got worse).

It is patently false to claim that Brexit has not helped with immigration problems.

There are three sources of immigration:

• Immigration from the EU - before Brexit this was Freedom-of-Movement immigration
• Legal immigration from outside the EU - basically people applying and being given visas to live here
• Illegal immigration

Brexit was only ever going to be able to reduce the first of those, and it largely has done - net immigration from the EU has fallen from hundreds of thousands a year to close to zero. The other two sources of immigration have recently risen for reasons that are almost entirely unrelated to Brexit (and therefore would probably have risen whether or not Brexit had happened). In the case of legal immigration from outside the EU, the reasons for the rise are largely one-off (The end of Covid, the war in Ukraine and the political suppression in Hong Kong, so unlikely to be ongoing in future years).

 

[takno]

It is patently false to claim that Brexit has not helped with immigration problems.

There are three sources of immigration:

• Immigration from the EU - before Brexit this was Freedom-of-Movement immigration
• Legal immigration from outside the EU - basically people applying and being given visas to live here
• Illegal immigration

Brexit was only ever going to be able to reduce the first of those, and it largely has done - net immigration from the EU has fallen from hundreds of thousands a year to close to zero. The other two sources of immigration have recently risen for reasons that are almost entirely unrelated to Brexit (and therefore would probably have risen whether or not Brexit had happened). In the case of legal immigration from outside the EU, the reasons for the rise are largely one-off (The end of Covid, the war in Ukraine and the political suppression in Hong Kong, so unlikely to be ongoing in future years).

The obvious counter to this is that the additional legal immigration from outside the EU has largely come as a result of Brexit, in the form of employers and UK universities filling jobs and places which would previously have gone to Europeans. A further source of likely ongoing immigration is people gaining the right to entry as part of the world-beating trade deals we are looking to do with all and sundry.

On illegal immigration, we certainly still have some agreements on immigration in place with individual countries, but we've lost a lot of our influence on overall European policy, and while I don't think there's any very solid data on the topic, it would be quite believable that this would be partially causing the rise.

There absolutely are other factors in play in terms of Hong Kong and the end of Covid, and I understand the Home Office may have admitted as many as dozens of fleeing Ukranians, but it's perhaps optimistic (depending on your point of view) to think that these won't be ongoing.

 

[brad465]

In the case of legal immigration from outside the EU, the reasons for the rise are largely one-off (The end of Covid, the war in Ukraine and the political suppression in Hong Kong, so unlikely to be ongoing in future years).

Depends on what happens to the economy and the worker shortage at the moment (caused by covid and a surge in early retirement), if either this Government or a future one want to get them all filled, then they either have to bolster immigration and/or invest heavily in AI/automation/other tech that reduces worker reliance, or let the economy shrink to accommodate the existing workforce without shortages. Either way there is something required that is not politically easy for any party/government to deal with.

 

[jon0844]

Depends on what happens to the economy and the worker shortage at the moment (caused by covid and a surge in early retirement), if either this Government or a future one want to get them all filled, then they either have to bolster immigration and/or invest heavily in AI/automation/other tech that reduces worker reliance, or let the economy shrink to accommodate the existing workforce without shortages. Either way there is something required that is not politically easy for any party/government to deal with.

Ultimately, I think we need freedom of movement back and to allow people from Europe to come work here again. Then we need to ensure sufficient protections for workers, and minimum/living wages to be adjusted so people aren't taken advantage of.

The NHS is crying out for staff too.

Sadly, I think many Europeans will have since decided it's nicer to live elsewhere in Europe - get paid in Euros and enjoy nicer weather, as well as people who don't look down on them as immigrants.

The 'light bulb' moment from Rishi talking about NI enjoying access to the EU means it won't surely take long for the second light bulb moment to appreciate that we need freedom of movement and free access to trade/customs union.

 

[Noddy]

Then the six counties would no longer be "NI" but part of a 32-county state, which would automatically become a full EU member following the guarantee that Leo Varadkar obtained from the EU in his first spell as Taoiseach. Access to the British market would not be lost to businesses in the north-east of the island, as trade would be permitted on the same terms as the remainder of the single market.

THC

After reunification trade from the former Northern Ireland to Britain would be permitted on the same terms as the EU single market?? Are you sure?

 

[THC]

After reunification trade from the former Northern Ireland to Britain would be permitted on the same terms as the EU single market?? Are you sure?

Yes and for the reason given - a reunified Ireland would automatically assume EU membership under the terms agreed by Enda Kenny when Taoiseach (not Leo Varadkar as I erroneously stated above).

EU says united Ireland would be automatic full member

European Union leaders promised on Saturday to embrace the British province of Northern Ireland into the EU if a referendum in the future were to unite it with the Republic of Ireland.

www.reuters.com

THC

 

[Noddy]

Yes and for the reason given - a reunified Ireland would automatically assume EU membership under the terms agreed by Enda Kenny when Taoiseach (not Leo Varadkar as I erroneously stated above).

EU says united Ireland would be automatic full member

European Union leaders promised on Saturday to embrace the British province of Northern Ireland into the EU if a referendum in the future were to unite it with the Republic of Ireland.

www.reuters.com

THC

So all the blocks that NI businesses and individuals have faced (and appear to largely have been removed under the ‘Windsor’ agreement) when moving goods from GB to NI would return? The way your statement reads suggests that somehow access to Britain would be the same as access to the EU single market.

 

[THC]

So all the blocks that NI businesses and individuals have faced (and appear to largely have been removed under the ‘Windsor’ agreement) when moving goods from GB to NI would return? The way your statement reads suggests that somehow access to Britain would be the same as access to the EU single market.

It's really not difficult. My statement is quite clear in that access to the British market for ex-NI businesses would be on the same terms as those available to single market businesses. What those terms are of course depends on whatever EU/rUK trading arrangements are in place at that future hypothetical point - and the direction of travel under Sunak is back towards regulatory convergence (or at most limited divergence).

THC