Russia invades Ukraine

[DustyBin]

It's worth remembering that a ballistic missile with multiple independent reentry vehicles is realistically 1960's technology.

I had to explain this to someone after the attack a few weeks ago, as they were worried the Russians has genuinely invented a wunderwaffe. Yes they're difficult to intercept, but they're a hideously expensive way to deliver a handful of concrete blocks or whatever to a target....

 

[brad465]

At the turn of the year, on New Year's Day, Ukraine stops allowing Russian gas to transit through to the EU, which will impact Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, who, by amazing coincidence, have the most Russian sympathetic governments in the EU. Putin claims Russia will be fine, but it will be interesting to see how the recipient countries cope. Fico is already vocally furious.

Ukraine will no longer allow transit of Russian gas, Zelenskyy says

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ruled out the possibility of allowing the transit of Russian-made gas under the label of Azerbaijan. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ruled out the possibility of allowing the transit of Russian-made gas under the label of Azerbaijan.

Ukraine will no longer allow the transit of Russian gas through the country's territory after the end of this year, Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on Thursday after meeting with leaders of the European Union in Brussels.
The ban, he added, will apply to any gas flow "coming from Russia" to avoid the risk of having Russian gas sold to Europe under the guise of Azerbaijan-made gas.
"We're not going to extend the transit of Russian gas," Zelenskyy told reporters.
"We won't allow them to earn additional billions on our blood. And any country in the world that can get something cheap from Russia will eventually become dependent on Russia – whether it happens in one month or one year. That's their policy."
The statement is set to go down badly with Robert Fico, the prime minister of Slovakia, a landlocked country that remains highly dependent on Russia's pipeline gas.
Slovakia imports three billion cubic metres from Gazprom, Russia's gas monopoly, every year, covering most of its domestic demand.
A major transit agreement between Ukraine and Gazprom, from which Kyiv earns constant revenue, is set to expire at the end of this year. The agreement accounts for half of Russia's pipeline gas exports to the EU, according to Bruegel.
Although Russia's pipeline gas exports to the bloc have plunged since the start of the full-scale invasion, a share of supplies continues moving unabated, freed from sanctions.
With the end of transit fast approaching, Slovakia has stepped up diplomatic efforts to ensure the country's energy flows are not disrupted.
As an alternative, Bratislava might resort to Azerbaijan, a small country in the Caucasus that has positioned itself as an affordable option for Europe to replace Russian gas. Deals with Azerbaijan are controversial due to the country's poor human rights record.
Under the scheme, Bruegel explains, Russia would supply gas to Ukraine labelled as "Azeri gas" while Azerbaijan would buy gas from Russia labelled "Russian gas" using the same infrastructure.
"In simple terms, there would be no change in the gas flows: EU traders would buy gas from Azerbaijan, which would buy gas from Russia," Bruegel said in an October study.
But on Thursday, Zelenskyy made it clear he would not tolerate such a deceitful operation, arguing the Kremlin would still earn money and, as a result, retain a key source of revenue to finance its costly and brutal invasion. He did not mention Azerbaijan by name but the Financial Times journalist who asked the question did.
"We don't want to play a game where this other country receives gas from Russia and then transits it. This is the same as continuing to profit from this war and sending money to Russia," Zekenskyy said in his reply.

 

[YorkshireBear]

As well as the huge missile attack today, it appears that an Azerbaijan Airlines plane has crashed in Kazakhstan after diverting from a Baku to Grozny flight towards Aktau after a bird strike caused a loss or control.

First video on BBC clearly shows the tail area with shrapnel damage and the airline forums are some western press outlets full of comments regarding it looking like a very funny looking bird strike.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjwl1e6895qo

 

[edwin_m]

As well as the huge missile attack today, it appears that an Azerbaijan Airlines plane has crashed in Kazakhstan after diverting from a Baku to Grozny flight towards Aktau after a bird strike caused a loss or control.

First video on BBC clearly shows the tail area with shrapnel damage and the airline forums are some western press outlets full of comments regarding it looking like a very funny looking bird strike.

Denys Davidoff is making a pretty convincing case that it was a shootdown, although it doesn't really make clear whether a Ukrainian drone strike was also in progress.

 

[wilbers]

He also has another youtube channel, but this one just about the war.

Denys Davydov

Every road is a home and every road is the home way. Find your road on road home... Telegram: t.me/pilotblog

www.youtube.com

 

[najaB]

Jaun Browne reached basically the same conclusion:

 

[edwin_m]

I've been looking out for the BBC to pick this up which they didn't do so until a minor update to the web story during the night. But it was lead item on the 0900 Radio 4 bulletin.

 

[Giugiaro]

Jumping into conclusions isn't a good way to publicly report a crash.

The official statement from Russia is that the airplane suffered a bird strike.
Evidence suggests otherwise.

This is possibly another MH17-like accident. Will the fact that the aircraft landed in Kazakhstan lead to an unbiased investigation of the accident?


Meanwhile, both Euronews and The Guardian are already reporting the possibility of a shootdown of flight AHY8432, as Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev advances with a criminal investigation into the accident.

 

[brad465]

Russia has now come out cautioning against making hypotheses, despite having done this themselves already. If anything them saying this only reinforces the theory that a Russian-initiated shoot down was the cause:

Russia warns against 'hypotheses' in Azerbaijan Airlines crash

The Russia-bound passenger plane went down in Kazakhstan with the loss of 38 lives.

www.bbc.co.uk

The Russian government has cautioned against promoting "hypotheses" about the cause of the crash of a Russia-bound passenger plane that killed 38 people in Kazakhstan on Wednesday.

Footage of the wrecked fuselage appeared to indicate shrapnel damage and some aviation experts suggested the Azerbaijani Airlines plane may have been been hit by air defence systems over the Russian republic of Chechnya.

Before it went down near the Kazakh city of Aktau, the plane was diverted across the Caspian Sea, from its destination in Chechnya to western Kazakhstan.

Twenty nine of the 67 people on board survived. Azerbaijan held a national day of mourning on Thursday for the victims of the crash.

"This is a great tragedy that has become a tremendous sorrow for the Azerbaijani people," President Ilham Aliyev said on Thursday.

In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "It would be wrong to put forward any hypotheses before the investigation's conclusions. We, of course, will not do this, and no-one should do this. We need to wait until the investigation is completed."

The Embraer 190 aircraft took off from the Azerbaijani capital Baku on Wednesday morning. It was due to fly to Grozny in Chechnya but it was diverted because of fog, the airline said.

A surviving passenger told Russian TV he believed the pilot had tried twice to land in dense fog over Grozny before "the third time, something exploded... some of the aircraft skin had blown out".

The plane was redirected to Aktau airport, some 450km (280 miles) to the east. Footage shows the aircraft heading towards the ground at high speed 3km (1.9 miles) short of the runway, before bursting into flames as it lands.

Kazakh authorities have recovered the flight data recorder and an investigation in under way. Shortly after the crash, reports from Russian state-controlled TV said the most likely cause was a strike from a flock of birds.

But that kind of collision typically results in the plane gliding towards in the nearest airfield, aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia told Reuters news agency. "You can lose control of the plane, but you don't fly wildly off course as a consequence," he said.

Justin Crump of risk advisory company Sibylline said the pattern of damage inside and outside the plane indicated that Russian air defence active in Grozny may have caused the crash.

"It looks very much like the detonation of an air defence missile to the rear and to the left of the aircraft, if you look at the pattern of shrapnel that we see," he told BBC Radio 4.

 

[edwin_m]

Establishing whether a missile was involved is likely to be very quick, as soon as an appropriate expert can examine the crash scene where the area of impact suffered little or no further damage in the crash. The voice and data recorders have also reportedly been recovered, although it's possible they won't tell us that much, if the crew didn't know exactly what had happened and were concentrating on flying the plane rather than speculating on the cause.

 

[brad465]

Establishing whether a missile was involved is likely to be very quick, as soon as an appropriate expert can examine the crash scene where the area of impact suffered little or no further damage in the crash. The voice and data recorders have also reportedly been recovered, although it's possible they won't tell us that much, if the crew didn't know exactly what had happened and were concentrating on flying the plane rather than speculating on the cause.

What's notably different this time when compared to MH17, is that the crash occurred over an area Russia doesn't control. There is speculation that the culprits hoped it would crash into the Caspian Sea, so the wreckage would be harder to recover, however landing over Kazakhstan should mean the truth will out more easily.

 

[YorkshireBear]

What's notably different this time when compared to MH17, is that the crash occurred over an area Russia doesn't control. There is speculation that the culprits hoped it would crash into the Caspian Sea, so the wreckage would be harder to recover, however landing over Kazakhstan should mean the truth will out more easily.

That has been speculated widely too. Not sure who would get that order to ATC though, unless the Russians really are that brainwashed! But looking at the flight, they very quickly crashed after crossing the sea so there is definitely merit in the pilots got across the sea and then tried to put it down.

 

[edwin_m]

It is reported that the weather over Grozny was pretty poor and they had already tried to land twice before whatever happened. Landing a crippled aircraft would have been even more difficult with poor visibility. So I suggest the diversion could have been simply to go somewhere with better weather.

Assuming it was a shootdown without foreknowledge that they were aiming at a civilian airliner, I can't see how the Russians could have realised their mistake, decided on a coverup and instructed ATC to vector the flight accordingly, before the pilots declared an emergency at which point they can ask ATC for whatever they need and it's rarely refused. In any case if it went down in Caspian but out of Russian territorial waters then the authorities could have retrieved the wreckage as has happened with many crashes into the sea before. A far better conspiracy would have been to direct it to Grozny or some other Russian airport and then "lose" the evidence.

The flightpath suggests they attempted to land on the runway but couldn't get lined up, or were possibly too high, so did a couple of orbits after which they were too low to reach the airport. A comment on one of the videos says the control surfaces on the E190 tail are fly by wire and inoperable without hydraulics but the ailerons are worked by cables. In that case they might have been able to turn but had little control over pitch. With the engines being under the wings, their thrust tends to push the nose upwards and reducing power to slow down might have sent them into a much steeper descent than they intended.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I can't see how the Russians could have realised their mistake, decided on a coverup and instructed ATC to vector the flight accordingly, before the pilots declared an emergency at which point they can ask ATC for whatever they need and it's rarely refused.

Strictly speaking, the commander of a civilian plane has the right to do what they feel is appropriate, regardless of ATC instructions. For example, if you want to land at an RAF airfield, you can, even if ATC can't grant the request. So, they could land at Grozny regardless, although there's a good chance that Russia would just shoot the plane down if an approach was made without clearance.

The question is whether it's true that they were refused permission to land at Grozny after the attack. It's very plausible that after the hit, the aircraft was identified and ATC were told to get the plane out of Russian airspace. Going south towards Baku or Ganja would be quite dangerous with a crippled plane over high mountains, whereas Aktau required (possibly!) only a right turn over the sea to line up with the runway.

The evidence from Flightradar24 shows that they weren't far off being lined up with the runway in Aktau on the first approach. There is a quite severe allegation that the GPS jamming started *after* the missile hit, which if it's true, it will a new low even by Russian standards. However, I suspect that the GPS was being jammed throughout the morning, because of the risk of drone strikes from Ukraine.

 

[wilbers]

North Korean soldier captured in Ukraine dies: reports

The soldier is thought to be the first North Korean prisoner of war captured in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ukrainian forces have captured an injured North Korean soldier who was sent to support Russia's war, South Korea's spy agency confirmed on Friday.

I wonder if he will defect to the west with a new identity in exchange for answering some questions. If traded back to Russia/North Korea I'd imagine life-expectancy could be very short.

 

[Giugiaro]

I'd assume any North Korean POW would automatically be claimed by South Korea.

 

[simonw]

North Korean soldier captured in Ukraine dies: reports

The soldier is thought to be the first North Korean prisoner of war captured in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

www.bbc.co.uk

I wonder if he will defect to the west with a new identity in exchange for answering some questions. If traded back to Russia/North Korea I'd imagine life-expectancy could be very short.

Reported to have died

 

[gg1]

I'd assume any North Korean POW would automatically be claimed by South Korea.

Unless he actually wanted to defect, I doubt South Korea would make any demands for North Korean POWs to be handed over, they have nothing to gain by doing so.

 

[edwin_m]

Unless he actually wanted to defect, I doubt South Korea would make any demands for North Korean POWs to be handed over, they have nothing to gain by doing so.

Wouldn't they want to interrogate him for any useful information about the North Korean armed forces (if he hasn't actually died or if the same situation arises again)?

 

[gg1]

Wouldn't they want to interrogate him for any useful information about the North Korean armed forces (if he hasn't actually died or if the same situation arises again)?

I think the chances of a North Korean soldier with knowledge of anything which might be of interest to the South Korean intelligence services being sent to the front line are pretty much zero and the Ukrainians will no doubt question him anyway, at most South Korea could ask that any intelligence gained is shared with them. Bear in mind there are a steady trickle of defections from North to South each year so there's no shortage of ordinary (ie those not in any position of power or influence) North Koreans who would willingly respond honestly to whatever questions the South Korean authorities ask.

If Ukraine somehow managed to launch a raid behind the front lines and captured a high ranking North Korean officer it'd be a different matter.

 

[edwin_m]

I think the chances of a North Korean soldier with knowledge of anything which might be of interest to the South Korean intelligence services being sent to the front line are pretty much zero and the Ukrainians will no doubt question him anyway, at most South Korea could ask that any intelligence gained is shared with them. Bear in mind there are a steady trickle of defections from North to South each year so there's no shortage of ordinary (ie those not in any position of power or influence) North Koreans who would willingly respond honestly to whatever questions the South Korean authorities ask.

If Ukraine somehow managed to launch a raid behind the front lines and captured a high ranking North Korean officer it'd be a different matter.

Maybe so, although the Ukrainians are unlikely to have any language in common with a Korean soldier so would have to find an interpreter to do any interrogation at all. I strongly suspect South Korea is quietly present in Ukraine anyway, to keep an eye on what their rival is up to.

Meanwhile Denys Davidov is back with an update on what is now almost certainly a shootdown of the Azerbaijan airliner. He is suggesting that the diversion to Khazakhstan was most likely initiated by the pilots, as Aktau had better weather and terrain than any of the nearby alternatives for landing a damaged aircraft. As a Ukrainian he's obviously not an impartial observer but as a pilot with local knowledge he's worth paying attention to.

 

[dgl]

Courtesey of bbc news Azerbaijan Airlines are now saying "external factors" were the cause of the crash.

Short bit from BBC News.

Azerbaijan says plane hit by 'external interference' over Russia before crash

A minister says all the survivors "heard blast sounds" over Grozny before the plane was diverted to Kazakhstan.

www.bbc.co.uk

Azerbaijan Airlines says the preliminary results of an investigation into the crash of its plane in Kazakhstan on 25 December have blamed "physical and technical external interference"

 

[Trackman]

Courtesey of bbc news Azerbaijan Airlines are now saying "external factors" were the cause of the crash.

They are not finger pointing at Russia yet, as they don't want to upset Putin.
I think Russia will cough though, which I think they have done - to some sort of degree (see below).

Azerbaijan says plane hit by 'external interference' over Russia before crash

A minister says all the survivors "heard blast sounds" over Grozny before the plane was diverted to Kazakhstan.

www.bbc.co.uk

The head of Russia's civil aviation agency said on Friday that the situation in the Chechen capital was "very complicated" and that a closed-skies protocol had been put in place.
"Ukrainian combat drones were launching terrorist attacks on civilian infrastructure in the cities of Grozny and Vladikavkaz," said Dmitry Yadrov, head of Rosaviatsia, in a video statement posted on Russia's Tass news agency.
"Because of this a 'Carpet plan' was introduced in the area of Grozny airport, providing for the immediate departure of all aircraft from the specified area," he said. "In addition, there was dense fog in the area of Grozny airport."

 

[brad465]

They are not finger pointing at Russia yet, as they don't want to upset Putin.
I think Russia will cough though, which I think they have done - to some sort of degree (see below).

Azerbaijan says plane hit by 'external interference' over Russia before crash

A minister says all the survivors "heard blast sounds" over Grozny before the plane was diverted to Kazakhstan.

www.bbc.co.uk

Forgive me for being naive, but what do you mean by "cough" in this context?

 

[najaB]

Forgive me for being naive, but what do you mean by "cough" in this context?

They've made a first little concession to the fact that it just may have been something other than a bird strike.

 

[brad465]

They've made a first little concession to the fact that it just may have been something other than a bird strike.

Thank you for clarifying.

This could certainly complicate relations between the two countries: they were probably not on the best of terms after Azerbaijan capitalised on Russia's weakness in Armenia, however as authoritarian near-neighbours I imagine they had better relations than Russia does with the West. These will probably worsen though, mostly at Russia's expense.

 

[edwin_m]

Another video, this time on the most recent anchor drag in the Baltic where the Finns seem to have the culprit bang to rights.

 

[Trackman]

Putin fesses up, well sort of...

Putin sorry over Azerbaijan Airlines crash but does not accept blame

Russia's leader apologises over the downing of an Azerbaijani plane in Russian airspace - without directly taking blame.

www.bbc.co.uk

Russia's President Vladimir Putin has apologised to the president of neighbouring Azerbaijan for the downing of a commercial airliner in Russian airspace, in which 38 people were killed - but stopped short of saying Russia was responsible.

In his first comments on the Christmas Day crash, Putin said the "tragic incident" had occurred when Russian air defence systems were actively repelling Ukrainian drones.

 

[brad465]

Putin fesses up, well sort of...

Putin sorry over Azerbaijan Airlines crash but does not accept blame

Russia's leader apologises over the downing of an Azerbaijani plane in Russian airspace - without directly taking blame.

www.bbc.co.uk

I don't recall an apology to the Netherlands, Malaysia or any other nation with lost citizens from MH17. This goes to show how much Putin needs friends and is desperate not to lose Azerbaijan right now.

This will make life harder for key Russian sympathisers in Europe, especially Slovakia, but also Hungary and Austria, as well as reducing Russian gas exports overall:

Ukraine to end transit of Russian gas into Europe

President Zelensky said his country would not allow Russia to "earn additional billions on our blood".

www.bbc.co.uk

Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are to end on Wednesday, when a five-year deal between Ukraine's gas transit operator Naftogaz and Russia's Gazprom expires.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country would not allow Russia to "earn additional billions on our blood" and had given the EU a year to prepare.
The EU has significantly reduced imports of gas from Russia since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but a number of eastern member states still depend largely on the supplies, making Russia about €5bn ($5.2bn; £4.2bn) a year.
The European Commission said the continent's gas system was "resilient and flexible" and that it had sufficient capacity to cope with the end of transit via Ukraine.
Russian gas made up less than 10% of the EU's gas imports in 2023, according to figures from the bloc, external, compared to 40% in 2021.
But several EU members, including Slovakia and Austria, continue to import significant amounts of gas from Russia.
Austria's energy regulator said it did not forecast any supply disruption as it had diversified sources and built up reserves.
But Ukraine's decision has already caused serious tensions with Slovakia, which is now the main entry point of Russian gas into the EU and earned transit fees from piping the gas on to Austria, Hungary and Italy.
On Friday, Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico - who had just made a surprise visit to Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin - threatened to stop the supply of electricity to Ukraine.
This prompted Mr Zelensky to accuse him of helping Mr Putin "fund the war and weaken Ukraine".
"Fico is dragging Slovakia into Russia's attempts to cause more suffering for Ukrainians," the Ukrainian president said.
Poland has offered to support Kyiv in case Slovakia cuts off its electricity exports - supplies that are crucial to Ukraine, whose power plants come under regular attack from Russia.
Moldova - which is not part of the EU - could be seriously affected by the end of the transit agreement. The gas fuelled a power plant on which Moldova relies for most of its electricity needs. It also supplied the Russia-backed breakaway region of Transnistria, a small sliver of land sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine.
Moldova's energy minister, Constantin Borosan, said the government had taken steps to ensure stable power supplies to the country but called on citizens to save energy. A 60-day state of emergency in the energy sector has been in place in Moldova since mid-December.
President Maia Sandu accused the Kremlin of "blackmail" possibly aimed at destabilising her country ahead of a general election in 2025. The Moldovan government also said it had offered aid to Transnistria.

 

[brad465]

Looks like Ukraine think they can get more land to bargain should Trump try and end the war soon:

Ukraine renews attack on Russia's Kursk region

It comes as Ukraine's president says only the US can provide security guarantees leading to an end to the war.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ukraine has launched a fresh offensive in Russia's Kursk region, the Russian Defence Ministry says.
In a statement, the military said efforts to destroy the Ukrainian attack groups are ongoing. Officials in Ukraine have also suggested an operation is under way.
Ukraine first launched its incursion into Russia's Kursk region in August last year, seizing a large chunk of territory.
In recent months, Russian forces have made big gains in the area, pushing the Ukrainians back, but failing to eject them entirely.
In a statement posted on Telegram on Sunday, Russia's defence ministry said: "At around 9am Moscow time, in order to stop the offensive by the Russian troops in the Kursk direction, the enemy launched a counter-attack by an assault detachment consisting of two tanks, one counter-obstacle vehicle, and 12 armoured fighting vehicles."
The head of Ukraine's presidential office, Andriy Yermak, said there "was good news from Kursk Region" and that Russia was "getting what it deserves".
Ukraine's top counter-disinformation official Andriy Kovalenko said in a Telegram, external post on Sunday: "The Russians in Kursk are experiencing great anxiety because they were attacked from several directions and it came as a surprise to them."
It's unclear whether the offensive is sufficiently large-scale to lead to any significant changes on the frontline.
Kyiv's forces are reportedly suffering from manpower shortages and have been losing ground in the east of Ukraine in recent months, as Russian troops advance.
It comes as the Ukrainian Air Force said Russia launched another drone attack on Ukraine overnight.
It said it had shot down 61 drones over Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, and Khmelnytskyy regions
There were no direct hits, but a few houses were damaged in Kharkiv Region by an intercepted drone, the air force said.

This also highlights how useless North Korean troops deployed to the area are, that Ukraine could launch another offensive despite NK troop deployment.