Southern Class 455 Withdrawal

[aleggatta]

why do this an increase the fleet massively when you can achieve the same by cutting services no longer needed or which provide duplication?

I fail to see why so many units are needed as some Southern services are surely ripe never to return. If a sustainable position can be reached with the May timetable why bring in any extra units at all?

In particular, the cuts on the Milton Keynes route take the unit requirement from 10 to 3. Guildford saves a unit. London Victoria to Caterham / Tattenham isn't needed and so on.

I wasn't saying a fleet intake of this scale was necessary, just that it would be possible to get the fleet back to the size it was pre covid relatively simply. if the fleet movements I described were put into place it would put the fleets of GTR and SE at a relative net 0 loss compared to pre covid (and pre 707 introduction), simply trying to ease any concerns that might be had. I think its safe to say that any service re-introduction will be based upon the passenger flows moving forwards from covid, not simply back to what they were before covid hit.

 

[hwl]

If you look at the May 22 timetable, the London Victoria - Sutton, London Victoria - London Bridge, Brighton - West Worthing and Brighton - Lewes services are also all gone.

I'm not sure if some of those changes are permanent or not, but there is defintley a need for less units at the moment.

Which Victoria - Sutton as there have been many permutations over the years?

Removing London Victoria - London Bridge mean the service level at a number of formerly high demand station e.g. Streatham Hill (2M+ entry/exit pre Covid) only get 2tph. Streatham Hill managed 500k during Covid in the last ORR figures (2020-21).

 

[nw1]

If you look at the May 22 timetable, the London Victoria - Sutton, London Victoria - London Bridge, Brighton - West Worthing and Brighton - Lewes services are also all gone.

I'm not sure if some of those changes are permanent or not, but there is defintley a need for less units at the moment.

Isn't it a good idea to future-proof though? Just because this year's timetable is going to be a cuts timetable (relative to normal timetables, not Covid ones), just because we're experiencing an economic slowdown at the moment, isn't it best to plan for the hope of better times ahead in the medium-term? What if these units are needed in two or three years? Might Ashford-Hastings and/or Uckfield be electrified at some point, which will require more EMUs?

Is it not better in that case surely for Southern to nab them now as standby units, rather than risk them going elsewhere in the meantime? Would also be useful to cater for seasonal spikes in demand, particularly to places like Brighton. And referencing the other thread, could they also be used to double-up high-demand Coastway services?

 

[JonathanH]

Just because this year's timetable is going to be a cuts timetable, just because we're experiencing an economic slowdown at the moment, is it wise to assume the railway will never get back to normal?

It isn't an economic slowdown. It is a fundamental change in the way a large number of people conduct their working lives. Even if one day there will be a number of people travelling consistent with March 2020, it simply isn't financially sustainable to operate the railway in that way until that actually happens.

 

[nw1]

It isn't an economic slowdown. It is a fundamental change in the way a large number of people conduct their working lives. Even if one day there will be a number of people travelling consistent with March 2020, it simply isn't financially sustainable to operate the railway in that way until that actually happens.

Can we assume that though? As I've said in another thread, it's only been a couple of months since the last Covid scare and it's only now that people are starting to live truly normal lives once again. Is it wise to assume that what we are seeing now is anything more than the after-effects of Covid and in a couple of years, people will wish to return to normal working life again?

Always unwise to predict the future based on the present IMO, and better to adopt insurance policies just in case. The loss of all those 455s is a huge drop in available capacity, and it's not like they have to invest in brand new units when there are spare Electrostars around which could at least partly replace them.

 

[bramling]

If you look at the May 22 timetable, the London Victoria - Sutton, London Victoria - London Bridge, Brighton - West Worthing and Brighton - Lewes services are also all gone.

I'm not sure if some of those changes are permanent or not, but there is defintley a need for less units at the moment.

I suspect at least some of this is crew-led rather than demand-led. Something like Brighton-West Worthing I’d expect to be not too far short of normal demand levels by now, especially off peak. Indeed we’ve certainly read reports here of overcrowding at times.

 

[JonathanH]

in a couple of years

...is the operative phrase here. Where is the money coming from to pay for maintaining capacity until then?

 

[Techniquest]

Well I'd best get my planning brain going and factor in a ride on a Southern 455 when I'm in London on 21st March! Certainly looks like a farewell journey from London Bridge to Caterham is on the cards! It will have to done in combination with a cycle ride (assuming the weather doesn't bowl me out) but that's fine by me.

*digs out the London map to plan the ride around to the Heathrow area*

 

[nw1]

...is the operative phrase here. Where is the money coming from to pay for maintaining capacity until then?

I suspect it will be less than what will be required to buy brand new units when demand improves again, as the Electrostars may have been nabbed by someone else by then. As I said, better to have too much capacity than too little, though it does sadly seem that this is not how the modern railway works.

 

[JonathanH]

Certainly looks like a farewell journey from London Bridge to Caterham is on the cards!

Cycle from Caterham to Epsom Downs?

I suspect it will be less than what will be required to buy brand new units when demand improves again, as the Electrostars may have been nabbed by someone else by then.

Who? The DfT has a lot of say over which fleets are leased and which aren't. There is also a huge 720 fleet being built up in the east which was based on March 2020 passenger numbers and the 350s becoming spare, not to mention the 701 fleet if it eventually enters service, also based on March 2020 passenger numbers.

 

[nw1]

Who? The DfT has a lot of say over which fleets are leased and which aren't. There is also a huge 720 fleet being built up in the east which was based on March 2020 passenger numbers and the 350s becoming spare, not to mention the 701 fleet if it eventually enters service, also based on March 2020 passenger numbers.

OK, fair point.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

Which Victoria - Sutton as there have been many permutations over the years?

Removing London Victoria - London Bridge mean the service level at a number of formerly high demand station e.g. Streatham Hill (2M+ entry/exit pre Covid) only get 2tph. Streatham Hill managed 500k during Covid in the last ORR figures (2020-21).

The London Victoria - Sutton via Selhurst. The London Victoria - Sutton and London Victoria - London Bridge are all in as q paths though, so defintley scope for them to return at short notice although I doubt they will run until September at the earliest.

Isn't it a good idea to future-proof though? Just because this year's timetable is going to be a cuts timetable (relative to normal timetables, not Covid ones), just because we're experiencing an economic slowdown at the moment, isn't it best to plan for the hope of better times ahead in the medium-term? What if these units are needed in two or three years? Might Ashford-Hastings and/or Uckfield be electrified at some point, which will require more EMUs?

Is it not better in that case surely for Southern to nab them now as standby units, rather than risk them going elsewhere in the meantime? Would also be useful to cater for seasonal spikes in demand, particularly to places like Brighton. And referencing the other thread, could they also be used to double-up high-demand Coastway services?

I deftinley agree that Southern should look to do something like that.

 

[Techniquest]

Cycle from Caterham to Epsom Downs?

Just had a look, that looks like a nice route. Definitely on my list of options!

Anyone here able to comment on what the cycle space on a 455 is like?

 

[Peregrine 4903]

I suspect at least some of this is crew-led rather than demand-led. Something like Brighton-West Worthing I’d expect to be not too far short of normal demand levels by now, especially off peak. Indeed we’ve certainly read reports here of overcrowding at times.

To be honest, I don't think this is crew led. The Brighton - West Worthing services were all running on Saturday for the entire pandemic up to the May 22 timetable, but are now gone from the May 22 timetable.

 

[jack31439]

Just had a look, that looks like a nice route. Definitely on my list of options!

Anyone here able to comment on what the cycle space on a 455 is like?

Dedicated space on the TS coach, with single rack and straps if they haven't been torn off. It is also the wheelchair accessible space but there is plenty of room.

 

[bramling]

To be honest, I don't think this is crew led. The Brighton - West Worthing services were all running on Saturday for the entire pandemic up to the May 22 timetable, but are now gone from the May 22 timetable.

It just strikes me as a very odd one to pull. We know the reduced passenger numbers are generally commuters and business, yet this line largely caters for “local” (not leisure) journeys, which I’d have thought would have largely rebounded now, especially in a fairly densely populated area where the roads aren’t wonderful. Unless people are being put off by the poor service, in which case catch 22.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Cycle from Caterham to Epsom Downs?


Who? The DfT has a lot of say over which fleets are leased and which aren't. There is also a huge 720 fleet being built up in the east which was based on March 2020 passenger numbers and the 350s becoming spare, not to mention the 701 fleet if it eventually enters service, also based on March 2020 passenger numbers.

Indeed its pretty obvious that there will too many 701's and 720's based on current demand but those two operators will have plenty of units in reserve to react to demand whereas GTR is being cut to the bone because its an easy target to remove units without a lease commitment. DofT or there paymasters won't care a jot about overcrowding.

 

[py_megapixel]

Effectively using the introduction of the 707s (SouthEastern) and the 745s (GA) to displace a load of Electrostars to Southern so that the oldest ex-BR stuff can be dispensed with sounds like quite a sane use of the available resources. Almost too sane for the DfT, in fact.

 

[brad465]

Just had a look, that looks like a nice route. Definitely on my list of options!

Anyone here able to comment on what the cycle space on a 455 is like?

Worth mentioning, in case you haven't checked, that the Caterham-Epsom area is in the North Downs and is notably hilly as a result, which while not necessarily difficult depending on one's ability, this would slow one down over the 10 miles or so between the two. A flatter route exists on a detour via Kenley and Purley (as opposed to going straight via Couldsdon), but involves the A22.

 

[YSTrains]

Are there any plans for a preservation of a unit?

 

[Sutton in Ant]

I haven’t heard anything but:
- Milton Keynes requires ten 377s and keeps being axed

- Portsmouth and Southampton to Brighton will be simply Chichester to Brighton from May

- All Brightons are currently 387

And among plenty of other cuts and considering the 455s are fairly loosely diagrammed to require just fifteen pairs a day for all day diagrams, I reckon it’s possible if the 377s are very much stretched and some 4 car services replace longer formations. It would mean the 313s’d need to cling on for longer though, surely?

Well. I believe that the 387's that are coming over to southern. They would be used on the West London Line going to Milton Keynes Central.

 

[43102EMR]

Well. I believe that the 387's that are coming over to southern. They would be used on the West London Line going to Milton Keynes Central.

Surely they’d be better off on the Brighton fasts? Like-for-like replacement for the GatEx 387s currently running on the route during the service suspension

 

[Kite159]

I suspect at least some of this is crew-led rather than demand-led. Something like Brighton-West Worthing I’d expect to be not too far short of normal demand levels by now, especially off peak. Indeed we’ve certainly read reports here of overcrowding at times.

Especially as the 313s require guards, whereas the 377s only need an OBS. So cut down the number of 313 operated services means they can save on crew. How long before the Eastbourne - Ashford is cut back to Hastings (again) to save on crew (in the mindset of the DfT penny counters) (with a 377 picking up the calls)

Just means the longer distance services get slower & busier as they have to pick up the calls at the likes of East Worthing, and some passengers might decide they will rather use the bus as it might be slower they have a better chance of being able to board.

 

[Mikey C]

It does seem a bit inconsistent between the 3 sections of the "Southern Region" now

SW have a large order for modern high density 701 for Suburban services (assuming they ever work).
SE will have a hotchpotch of non aircon Networkers, high density 707s and high density but non aircon 376s for suburban services, plus presumably 465/9s will start being used again for outer suburban services, if they have to return the loaned 377s back to Southern

By contrast Southern will have a uniform fleet of 377s operating all services, including inner London services for which they aren't really designed, when Southeastern will see Networkers operating routes well into Kent...

 

[brad465]

It does seem a bit inconsistent between the 3 sections of the "Southern Region" now

SW have a large order for modern high density 701 for Suburban services (assuming they ever work).
SE will have a hotchpotch of non aircon Networkers, high density 707s and high density but non aircon 376s for suburban services, plus presumably 465/9s will start being used again for outer suburban services, if they have to return the loaned 377s back to Southern

By contrast Southern will have a uniform fleet of 377s operating all services, including inner London services for which they aren't really designed, when Southeastern will see Networkers operating routes well into Kent...

If Southern do get 377s back from SE then not only would Networkers return to more long distance services, but the ones in storage would have to come back (at least though that is an option).

At least Southern wouldn't have to do too much to SE's 377s if they did get them: the interiors are practically the same (but could do with a refresh), and 2 of them are already still in Southern colours on the outside.

 

[Southern Dvr]

Well. I believe that the 387's that are coming over to southern. They would be used on the West London Line going to Milton Keynes Central.

Except the Milton Keynes service is curtailed to Watford!

 

[BayPaul]

Indeed its pretty obvious that there will too many 701's and 720's based on current demand but those two operators will have plenty of units in reserve to react to demand whereas GTR is being cut to the bone because its an easy target to remove units without a lease commitment. DofT or there paymasters won't care a jot about overcrowding.

In the new GBR world, it may be that some rebalancing may be more practical than in the past - for example SWR taking over some west coastway or metro services, or GA taking some services from GN to free 387s for Southern. Pure speculation of course, but worth noting here because the DfT have options for the future that mean reducing the size of Southern's fleet does not prevent future growth.

 

[Southern Dvr]

In the new GBR world, it may be that some rebalancing may be more practical than in the past - for example SWR taking over some west coastway or metro services, or GA taking some services from GN to free 387s for Southern. Pure speculation of course, but worth noting here because the DfT have options for the future that mean reducing the size of Southern's fleet does not prevent future growth.

Not quite as simple as that unless you start opening the can of worms that is PT&R (promotion transfer and redundancy) for the staff because the scale of route learning required if you don’t take the staff with the knowledge would be enormous.

 

[Snow1964]

...is the operative phrase here. Where is the money coming from to pay for maintaining capacity until then?

No one can predict rate of change accurately, or levels of demand over next year or two.

But if can’t short term spot hire extra capacity, then you either have to retain contingency capacity or end up with potential overcrowning.

Admittedly it’s not 1950s where keeping sets of financially written off sets of coaches in sidings for few days use each year is seen as good practice, (or better than turning away customers) but it was done then to cover for short term demand peaks. What I am not hearing now is how Southern plan to cover the withdrawals if their demand predictions are wrong and they unexpectedly get busy again. (And leasing new trains that take 1000 days to arrive is not a proper answer if you need them next week)

 

[Techniquest]

Dedicated space on the TS coach, with single rack and straps if they haven't been torn off. It is also the wheelchair accessible space but there is plenty of room.

Thanks! Nice and easy to use, which is always a plus. Voyagers and IETs are a challenge to put a cycle on in the dedicated space, so it's always refreshing to have a train which doesn't involve defying the laws of physics to put a cycle on board!

Worth mentioning, in case you haven't checked, that the Caterham-Epsom area is in the North Downs and is notably hilly as a result, which while not necessarily difficult depending on one's ability, this would slow one down over the 10 miles or so between the two. A flatter route exists on a detour via Kenley and Purley (as opposed to going straight via Couldsdon), but involves the A22.

I had looked briefly at my Sustrans map for that, it does suggest there's some decent hills in places, a proper look at gradient profiles is still required though. I haven't looked on Maps yet, but I try to avoid A roads in most places given they're not exactly fun to ride along. My paper map does not indicate whether the A22 is single or dual carriageway, if it's the latter it will be avoided like the plague!

I am considering many options, indeed I might not bother going as far as Caterham. I'm only interested for the nostalgia of going there in the mid-2000s for the track coverage. It was so long ago the 456s in service at the time still had the livery preceding Southern's green and white. I want to say it was the remnants of NSE, it had a lot of grey on the bodysides, but I'm not well versed in liveries. Either way, that was a long time ago!

You know, I just realised, near Purley Oaks is a nice Toby Carvery, and by the time I get to that area it will be lunchtime. Now an idea is forming quickly! Maybe do a 455 to Caterham, ride back up to Purley Oaks, have lunch then continue my cycling quest from there, possibly taking on more 455s to make more of a farewell to them.

Thanks for the pointer on the route I had in mind, very much appreciated! I can take on hills reasonably well, I'm not as good as a lot of people but I'm getting there. You'd think by now I'd plan my rides around checking gradient profiles wouldn't you? Well no, I don't do so very often, impulse rules the roost around here! I might send you a PM later, given you know the area better than me, otherwise I'll get in trouble for taking the thread off-topic

Going back to 455s, and the plan to withdraw them and cut out capacity. I think it makes a whole ton of sense right now, whether it will still make sense this time next year or any time further into the future, who knows? I have to concur with those who have already expressed the view that the world has changed, that we don't need the capacity of Q4 2019.

Quite frankly, unless something causes the world to dramatically change again which means that we all pretty much live on the railway, then I cannot see things going back to the way they were. If they do, and I will be surprised at that, then fair enough it will then be time to take action. However, in the current world where reducing our travel and our emissions is seen as vital to protecting the world around us, then it is time to modernise and, to use a bit of an ugly expression, 'get with the times'.

Don't get me wrong, as I have previously stated, I will miss the 313s and 455s when they go, they form a nice bit of nostalgia for me from the early days of my interest in the railway. Same for 158s, I spent a lot of time on them in the mid-2000s, and when the time comes for those to go a big chunk of railway history will go with them. However, as the saying goes 'all good things must come to an end' and it is clearly almost that time for the 313s and 455s.

Both classes have served the railway exceptionally well over the last few decades, however now is a good time to allow them to retire gracefully before they get so life-expired that they suffer frequent breakdowns etc.