When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[jon0844]

Boris could maybe get a directorship at Peppa Pig World.

 

[nw1]

John Redwood or the return of Owen Patterson?

Redwood finally becomes PM after trying for, what, 25 years?

But seriously, I guess Raab and Patel are the more likely right-wing candidates.

But either would be electoral suicide: Raab is the real-life Alan B'Stard and Patel is a hardline authoritarian. Neither would sit well with the general public I suspect, despite both being popular amongst the Tory right.

More likely to win any leadership contest is someone like Javid at a guess. He's a bit Thatcherite and has a worrying admiration for Ayn Rand, but I wouldn't call him a real hardliner.

But I don't think any candidate will guarantee the Tories winning the next election; AFAIK none of them are especially popular.

Lord Frost rating third best in that is ironic when many Tory members wanted to be out of the EU for issues like sovereignty and not being run by 'unelected bureaucrats", yet Frost essentially is one.

Not to mention Cummings, head of the "Vote Leave" lie campaign. He was certainly unelected and held sway over policy for a time before he disgraced himself.

 

[Typhoon]

I suspect Johnson will 'retire' before March next year, probably citing poor health caused by stress, riding off into the sunset of after dinner speeches

You may well be right. Apparently he compared himself to Moses at one stage (I haven't heard it, I get bogged down in Peppa Pig World). Moses famously did not enter the Promised Land

How on earth can someone like Dorries be so highly regarded? Unless hypocrisy and a lack of basic understanding of her brief are positive qualities of course

She is the new hope - replacing Patel who has been exposed as being Priti ineffectual. The 'grass roots' appeared to champion the Home Secretary as someone with 'their values'. She probably has but, besides blaming just about everybody, has achieved just about nothing (positive), Dorries has started well (in the 'grass roots' eyes) by BBC bashing. And, as Ben Wallace, reminded us, is qualified as Culture (and all the rest) Secretary as she is an author. I woke up to local radio, am on the internet right now, will be getting a bus shortly (hopefully the Metro awaits), will probably pop into the library to return a book on a Voiticist artist, and am a (very small) part-owner of a local (now community) football team, investing a ton when they were threatened with going under. I must be over-qualified for the job.
Seriously, one plus about Cameron is that he tried to keep ministers in the same general area so they get used to the blunders like Dorries and Channel 4. I was going to say that our PM moves them around like draughts but he doesn't, he moves them forwards, backwards, off the board, back on again.

If https://www.conservativehome.com/th...in-our-post-shuffle-cabinet-league-table.html is anything to go by, our next Prime Minister will have a keen interest in pork markets.

Very interesting, thank you. I would say that anyone below Dowden ('caught in the lights of an oncoming vehicle') is in trouble.

 

[yorksrob]

Say what you like about Boris, but with Okehampton his government's got a proper reopening in England under its belt.

Rather better than Alistair Darling, Cameron/Osborne and the rest.

 

[Peterthegreat]

Say what you like about Boris, but with Okehampton his government's got a proper reopening in England under its belt.

Rather better than Alistair Darling, Cameron/Osborne and the rest.

You seem to forget
Aylesbury to Aylesbury Vale Parkway
Romsey to Eastleigh
Kettering to Corby
Hednesford to Rugeley
Halifax to Huddersfield
Plus lines in Scotland and Wales.

 

[yorksrob]

You seem to forget
Aylesbury to Aylesbury Vale Parkway
Romsey to Eastleigh
Kettering to Corby
Hednesford to Rugeley
Halifax to Huddersfield
Plus lines in Scotland and Wales.

I'll give you Kettering - Corby but most of those were barely in this century.

 

[nw1]

I'll give you Kettering - Corby but most of those were barely in this century.

.. though does this matter? They were still reopenings under a previous government of some kind.

Walsall to Hednesford is another modern one, think that was under Thatcher (who I am not a fan of), think it was about 1988? And of course the electrification of said line, which definitely occurred before Johnson, though admittedly under another Tory government.

So bottom line is, there has been an occasional but steady stream of reopenings since perhaps the mid-late 80s, when the fashion for knocking the railways as 'out of date' seemed to be reversed. I think the last significant closure (i.e a line with a regular service prior to closure rather than a parliamentary service) was the Eridge-Tunbridge Wells line in 1985, and then Bathgate opened in 1986 which started swinging the pendulum the other way.

 

[yorksrob]

.. though does this matter? They were still reopenings under a previous government of some kind.

Walsall to Hednesford is another modern one, think that was under Thatcher (who I am not a fan of).

So bottom line is, there has been a steady stream of reopenings since perhaps the mid-late 80s, when the fashion for knocking the railways as 'out of date' seemed to be reversed.

Actually, the 80's were a bit of a high point for reopenings (and BR deserves as much, if not more credit than Mrs T in that) however with the exception of the devolved governments, progress in England has been decidedly slow (I've been banging on about it on this forum for the last decade).

Now, as a direct result of the "reopening your railway" policy (I've also been calling for something similar for many years) we have a proper reopening to a town that was previously, for the most part, disconnected from the network.

 

[edwin_m]

Any discussion of reopenings should also consider tram schemes, which are likely to carry far more passengers than somewhere like Okehampton with a two car train every hour. The Major government gave the go-ahead to West Midlands and Croydon, the Blair and Brown governments to the two phases in Nottingham.

 

[yorksrob]

Any discussion of reopenings should also consider tram schemes, which are likely to carry far more passengers than somewhere like Okehampton with a two car train every hour. The Major government gave the go-ahead to West Midlands and Croydon, the Blair and Brown governments to the two phases in Nottingham.

The Blair/Brown government cancelled the one in Leeds !

I see your point, but the Okehampton reopening is notable precisely because it is in a rural setting and reconnecting a town to the network.

 

[brad465]

Say what you like about Boris, but with Okehampton his government's got a proper reopening in England under its belt.

Rather better than Alistair Darling, Cameron/Osborne and the rest.

The line and town in question is in already safe Tory heartland (apart from Exeter city which is safe Labour). It will certainly improve/maintain a good image for the constituents in relevant seats, but in terms of electoral standing there will be nothing to gain or lose.

The announcement of face covering mandates returning and travel restrictions, which could also be perceived as a return of more restrictions, will disenfranchise libertarian Tory support. Also the Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election is in just under 2 weeks and Reform UK's Richard Tice is standing - he now has very strong ammunition to take Tory votes from those against this move. It's a tall order, but if this combined with Labour making gains from a de facto pact with the Lib Dems and Greens causes the Tories to lose the seat, Johnson's in trouble. But even if they hold it there'll be discontent that can cause problems.

 

[yorksrob]

The line and town in question is in already safe Tory heartland (apart from Exeter city which is safe Labour). It will certainly improve/maintain a good image for the constituents in relevant seats, but in terms of electoral standing there will be nothing to gain or lose.

Which makes it all the more impressive that its happened without a notable electoral advantage.

By contrast, Fleetwood and Blythe are traditionally labour areas, so it's a policy that works across the board.

I agree that it will be interesting to see how Old Bexley and Sidcup goes - particularly since it was held for so long but a certain Mr Heath !

 

[Acfb]

I can't really see how the Tories could lose Old Bexley and Sidcup (unlike N Shropshire where I now think Lib Dem pavement politics could even see them become a sort of close 2nd).

30% would be very good result Labour and can't see how the Tories fall too much below 50% and reform gets more than 15% tops even if Tice and Labour are both putting in effort.

 

[brad465]

I can't really see how the Tories could lose Old Bexley and Sidcup (unlike N Shropshire where I now think Lib Dem pavement politics could even see them become a sort of close 2nd).

30% would be very good result Labour and can't see how the Tories fall too much below 50% and reform gets more than 15% tops even if Tice and Labour are both putting in effort.

You maybe right, and the bookies certainly feel confident of a hold, but according to this article released yesterday that analyses the campaign so far suggests there is at least concern, and Tory "big-hitters" have been visiting the constituency in an attempt to secure support:

By-election: Tory wobbles in true blue Bexley?

The BBC's Ione Wells visits Old Bexley and Sidcup in south-east London ahead of the by-election.

www.bbc.co.uk

"To stand at such an important conference the other day and start talking about Peppa Pig and lose your place - how can this man be prime minister of this country?"

David Greenberg, 60, is a lifelong Conservative voter who has lived in Bexley all his life.
From conversations with customers at his family-run clothing boutique - on the high street since 1977 - he knows the area has always been "very blue".
But ahead of Thursday's Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election, he says it feels different.
Since 2019 and Brexit, a new B-word is dominating the conversation.
"We're all a little bit unsure about how things stand at the minute, obviously with what's going on in Westminster, with Boris," he says.
Boris Johnson's leadership, and promise to "Get Brexit Done", was seen as a major asset for the Tories at the 2019 general election where they won an 80-seat majority - but is patience with the Conservative leader wearing thin in this heartland seat?

Citing government promises to "level up", recent changes to the government's social care plans, HGV driver shortages impacting deliveries to his business, and illegal immigration, Mr Greenberg asks: "Can we trust him? I don't think so. When he opens his mouth, can we believe what he says? I don't."
Old Bexley and Sidcup has been a safe Conservative seat since its creation in 1983 - the party got 64.9% of the vote in 2019. Labour have come second since 1992, with UKIP rocketing into third place in 2015 and 2017 in this predominantly pro-Brexit patch...

 

[Railsigns]

Say what you like about Boris, but with Okehampton his government's got a proper reopening in England under its belt.

Okehampton barely qualifies as a reopening, never mind a 'proper reopening', which must surely involve the reinstatement of track on an empty solum. It really was the lowest of low-hanging fruit.

 

[yorksrob]

Okehampton barely qualifies as a reopening, never mind a 'proper reopening', which must surely involve the reinstatement of track on an empty solum. It really was the lowest of low-hanging fruit.

It was, yet how long has it taken to pick it !

 

[Dai Corner]

Okehampton barely qualifies as a reopening, never mind a 'proper reopening', which must surely involve the reinstatement of track on an empty solum. It really was the lowest of low-hanging fruit.

I think they replaced the track, so perhaps a bit higher-hanging than some other (potential or actual) passenger reopenings?

 

[Busaholic]

I think they replaced the track, so perhaps a bit higher-hanging than some other (potential or actual) passenger reopenings?

A chicken nugget thrown down to try and get the people of Devon and Cornwall to develop amnesia over all the broken promises on a 'resilient' rail route to anywhere further north and east. Lucky for them yesterday's and today's storm came from a northerly direction.

 

[yorksrob]

A chicken nugget thrown down to try and get the people of Devon and Cornwall to develop amnesia over all the broken promises on a 'resilient' rail route to anywhere further north and east. Lucky for them yesterday's and today's storm came from a northerly direction.

True, they need to get the rest of the route completed to have full credibility.

It's still further than Cameron got though.

 

[MattRat]

When Labour is a decent opposition......

 

[dk1]

When Labour is a decent opposition......

Not much hope then.

 

[brad465]

When Labour is a decent opposition......

We don't need them to be decent enough to have a majority, we need them and other opposition parties to be decent enough to form enough of an anti-Tory alliance to help force a hung Parliament where essential electoral forms can be passed that improve democracy here overall, including, above all else, changing our voting system.

 

[MattRat]

We don't need them to be decent enough to have a majority, we need them and other opposition parties to be decent enough to form enough of an anti-Tory alliance to help force a hung Parliament where essential electoral forms can be passed that improve democracy here overall, including, above all else, changing our voting system.

If the average voter sees that sort of coalition forming, they'll vote Tory even harder. I'm not saying it needs to stay a two party system, but the quickest and 'easiest' solution would be for Labour to get their act together. The other option would be for a true third party to emerge to challenge the other two, and truly use their power when they are needed to form a coalition (throw their weight around).

 

[brad465]

If the average voter sees that sort of coalition forming, they'll vote Tory even harder. I'm not saying it needs to stay a two party system, but the quickest and 'easiest' solution would be for Labour to get their act together. The other option would be for a true third party to emerge to challenge the other two, and truly use their power when they are needed to form a coalition (throw their weight around).

If these parties visibly stand down candidates in key seats then yes that's a possibility. But I don't see this happening, instead it's more likely they'll stand in all/almost all seats, but only the main Tory challenger will actively campaign. This is more or less how Chesham and Amersham was won by the Lib Dems earlier this year; even though Labour and the Greens both had candidates, their vote shares were very low (there were only 622 Labour votes).

 

[edwin_m]

If the average voter sees that sort of coalition forming, they'll vote Tory even harder. I'm not saying it needs to stay a two party system, but the quickest and 'easiest' solution would be for Labour to get their act together. The other option would be for a true third party to emerge to challenge the other two, and truly use their power when they are needed to form a coalition (throw their weight around).

Not necessarily. If people feel that one of the major parties is getting too extreme but they like the other one even less, they may be more inclined to support a centre party in the hope of getting a coalition that will discard some of those extreme policies. Although of course that didn't happen in 2019, partly because the LibDems messed things up.

Our electoral system makes it virtually impossible for a third party to gain significant traction. From the SDP to Change UK, all attempts have fizzled out or at best ended up being subsumed into the LibDems, with no obvious change to their vote share.

The two-party system and FPTP actively encourages some elements in Labour (and the Tories) to focus on their own utopian policies instead of a compromise that might get them elected. In a proportional system the spectrum of opinion currently encompassed within each would be split across two or even more parties, so the public could choose between more moderate and more extreme options on either the left or the right, instead of being given a choice of options based on the desires of two very unrepresentative sets of members/activists.

 

[brad465]

So much for believing in Law and Order:

Newspaper headlines: 'Beware cost of Christmas' and 'justice for Arthur'

Monday's headlines include warnings from scientists over the risk of a post-Christmas Covid surge.

www.bbc.co.uk

The prime minister is set to kick off a "fresh war with judges" over possible plans to allow ministers to "throw out any legal rulings they don't like", the Times reports. Boris Johnson wants to reduce the power of the courts to overrule the government through judicial review and has ordered Justice Secretary Dominic Raab to "toughen plans" for reforming judges' powers, the paper says.

 

[alex397]

So much for believing in Law and Order:

View attachment 106531

It is really concerning to read that - do we want to become some sort of wannabe dictatorship?
But, as usual, will this make much difference to public opinion? This is the latest controversy out of a huge list.

 

[birchesgreen]

The problem is a large chunk of the population are quite happy with us becoming a wannabe dictatorship as they are confident they will never fall foul of it. Of course previous examples have shown that this is a rather foolish point of view.

 

[MattRat]

It is really concerning to read that - do we want to become some sort of wannabe dictatorship?
But, as usual, will this make much difference to public opinion? This is the latest controversy out of a huge list.

Depends on the dictatorship, as in, what it's dictating. Some things will annoy people more than others.

 

[Typhoon]

Impersonating a police officer, up to 6 months inside.

(Picture credit: Press Association)