22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[Watershed]

I expect the only changes to the legislation on 8 March will be “open air recreation” being added back into the exceptions (from which it should frankly never have been removed - it wasn’t for the November lockdown; a cynic would suggest it was removed purely so they could give us something meaningless back!).

Then at the end of March the legislation will change from “no person may be leave from the place where they are living” to “no person may stay overnight away from the place where they are living”. That is how it worked last summer.

When the second of those happens it’ll become much harder for the government to stop people leaving the country unless there’s some further change to the legislation to prohibit it.

The former change will already effectively make the "stay at home rule" die. That said, during parts of last year in Wales and Scotland, non-essential shops were open but the "stay at home rule" still existed... with defined reasonable excuses to visit such shops!

In truth the biggest barrier to international travel, both now and in the medium to long term, is the prohibitive cost of testing - you need to get tested 6 times for a return trip to lots of European countries at the moment, and that's so you can cut it down to 5 days' quarantine on either side. Also the risk of a country being declared a red list country at a moment's notice. Tests are around £80-100 a pop, so that makes a quick getaway totally unaffordable for most.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

So does that mean I will finally be able to do travel short distances for day trips once again from 8th of March? Or will I have to wait until the 29th of March?

 

[kristiang85]

Tests are around £80-100 a pop, so that makes a quick getaway totally unaffordable for most.

I know of some quick-turnaround PCRs (gauranteed in 24hrs) costing upwards of £200! Someone is making a lot of money out of this (all airport testing in Turkey, for example, was £25, and even in Iceland I only paid £50 last year).

LFTs should become the standard test very soon for international travel, even if it has to be done at airports to ensure it is done properly, but it is rapid and cheaper. I doubt this will happen though as there are too many snouts in the trough.

 

[Watershed]

I know of some quick-turnaround PCRs (gauranteed in 24hrs) costing upwards of £200! Someone is making a lot of money out of this (all airport testing in Turkey, for example, was £25, and even in Iceland I only paid £50 last year).

LFTs should become the standard test very soon for international travel, even if it has to be done at airports to ensure it is done properly, but it is rapid and cheaper. I doubt this will happen though as there are too many snouts in the trough.

Yes - I think that LFTs are already accepted for entry to the UK but all countries seemingly have differing requirements. You also need a test that's translated into English for entry to the UK - which inevitably attracts a "tourist tax" abroad!

I think this is one restriction that is unlikely to be eased anytime soon, some may argue for good reason. I expect it to become the next 'PPE scandal' - only this time, it will be MOPs rather than the Treasury that gets ripped off (and yes, there is a distinction: MOPs cannot print money!).

 

[Ianno87]

In truth the biggest barrier to international travel, both now and in the medium to long term, is the prohibitive cost of testing - you need to get tested 6 times for a return trip to lots of European countries at the moment, and that's so you can cut it down to 5 days' quarantine on either side. Also the risk of a country being declared a red list country at a moment's notice. Tests are around £80-100 a pop, so that makes a quick getaway totally unaffordable for most.

And the risk of prohibitive cost of last minute accommodation should you be unable to return to the UK due to a positive test result.

 

[Bessie]

I think many people will accept no foreign holidays for getting back to a degree of normality this summer. I've booked to go to West Wales in last week of May to visit some of the narrow gauge railways. It will be a real shame if such outdoor activities can't get going by then.

 

[duncanp]

Indeed, methinks he's getting to be a bit too big for his boots. As you say its not for him to demand anything, especially when the results don't affect him & his team.

This morning's news from Scotland, that the Pfizer and Oxford Astra Zeneca jabs cut the risk of serious illness and hospitalisation by 85% and 94% respectively may be a game changer.

Perhaps the five week interval and the leaked dates are a worst case scenario, and if in a months time there is more data to back up this study from Scotland, it will be just the excuse that Boris is looking for to bring some reopenings forward.

 

[Yew]

I think many people will accept no foreign holidays for getting back to a degree of normality this summer. I've booked to go to West Wales in last week of May to visit some of the narrow gauge railways. It will be a real shame if such outdoor activities can't get going by then.

What evidence makes you think that is in any way necessary or reasonable?

Everyone who is able will have had at least one dose of the vaccine by then.

This morning's news from Scotland, that the Pfizer and Oxford Astra Zeneca jabs cut the risk of serious illness and hospitalisation by 85% and 94% respectively may be a game changer.

Perhaps the five week interval and the leaked dates are a worst case scenario, and if in a months time there is more data to back up this study from Scotland, it will be just the excuse that Boris is looking for to bring some reopenings forward.

Why do I get the feeling that Fergurson won't be running to put this data into his models?

 

[Silver Cobra]

If this is England’s plan, and it’s far too slow, I dread to even imagine what Sturgeon and Drakeford are going to do, as they are undoubtedly going to be even slower than this.

If the article on BBC News that's been posted in this thread already is anything to go by, Wales could be re-opening some of it's non-essential retail a lot earlier than England:

In Wales, First Minister Mark Drakeford said he hopes the "stay-at-home" requirement could end within three weeks, with some non-essential shops and hairdressers possibly reopening at the same time.

Of course, now Boris' plans have largely been leaked ahead of his announcement later today, Drakeford may decide to re-evaluate Wales' plan and re-open non-essential shops even slower than England

 

[Watershed]

And the risk of prohibitive cost of last minute accommodation should you be unable to return to the UK due to a positive test result.

True, although given the likelihood of getting infected (particularly if you are in a demographic where it's remotely sensible to travel) probably means that's more of an unlikely contingency that you should account for with any overseas trip. Of course, travel insurance won't cover things like this.

I think many people will accept no foreign holidays for getting back to a degree of normality this summer. I've booked to go to West Wales in last week of May to visit some of the narrow gauge railways. It will be a real shame if such outdoor activities can't get going by then.

Absolutely. Expectations have been set so low that people will be glad for the slightest return to normality. Cue the comparisons with abusive relationships...

 

[brad465]

There's speculation on Twitter that todays roadmap is another 'under promise and over deliver' with Boris announcing a slightly faster easing in time to boost May election results.

Yes I strongly believe that either things will be brought forward for the sake of the local elections, or at the very least anyone standing on a platform opposing restrictions will be very vocal and gaining voter support.

 

[Class 33]

For quite some months now we've had Johnson, Whitty, NHS Chief Simon Stevens and numerous other people saying "The number of people in hospital with Coronavirus is above what it was in the peak back in April.". Then when those numbers fell below that level recently we've still had them moaning "The numbers of people in hospital with Coronavirus is still about the same as it was in the peak back in April.". Those numbers have fell again since then, but they're now saying "The numbers of people in hospital with Coronavirus is only just a bit lower than it was in the peak back in April.". Well in the coming few weeks now as the numbers in hospital fall by about an average of 700 per day, they won't be able to say comments like those anymore. By 8th March the numbers in hospital should easily be below 10,000 I reacon. And comments like "Our hospitals are still under a great deal of pressure" and "Stay Home. Protect the NHS. Save Lives" just won't cut it anymore. The "Stay at home" guidance then really needs to go on 8th March.

 

[LAX54]

I think many people will accept no foreign holidays for getting back to a degree of normality this summer. I've booked to go to West Wales in last week of May to visit some of the narrow gauge railways. It will be a real shame if such outdoor activities can't get going by then.

Many I have spoken to recently at work, certainly are not 'accepting' there will be no foreign travel...the other day they were looking at the roster, suggesting that they have a bank of rest days later July....... but does it, or would it, make much difference whether you travel to Scotland, Wales or to Switzerland, Florida or California ?

 

[Snow1964]

I don’t really understand the closure of Covid secure non essential shops, whilst allowing shops like supermarkets to sell electronic goods and clothes to stay open.

Would it not be more logical to either close the aisles that sell non essential, or reopen the other shops so the customers are spread more thinly over greater number of shops.

However I think the chancellor needs to level up, and drop shop rates by about 40% (to reflect drop in rents) whilst increase rates on warehouses to offset (even if +200%). And when pubs reopen would cut duty by about 30p per pint (and tax take home beer from supermarkets more to compensate), before our heritage of a country pub is killed off

 

[island]

It does seem to be based the assumption that they haven't got a hope in hell of enforcing travel restrictions over Easter so they are keeping businesses closed until afterwards.

The idea that most people aren't already using exercise as an excuse for general outdoor socialising is bonkers.

Edit: I suspect stay at home will continue in law until 29th March because its the only thing that bans non essential international travel. Everything else nudges people away from it with practical and financial obstacles but doesn't stop people going on holiday.

They could change stay at home to no staying away from home overnight (as was in effect last June) or just make it illegal to leave the country or the CTA. In each case with reasonable excuse provisions.

Yes - I think that LFTs are already accepted for entry to the UK but all countries seemingly have differing requirements. You also need a test that's translated into English for entry to the UK - which inevitably attracts a "tourist tax" abroad!

Test paperwork can be in English, French or Spanish.

I think many people will accept no foreign holidays for getting back to a degree of normality this summer. I've booked to go to West Wales in last week of May to visit some of the narrow gauge railways. It will be a real shame if such outdoor activities can't get going by then.

I think this is necessary but not sufficient. I’ll accept it, but I won’t stop wanting to travel overseas.

 

[kristiang85]

I think many people will accept no foreign holidays for getting back to a degree of normality this summer. I've booked to go to West Wales in last week of May to visit some of the narrow gauge railways. It will be a real shame if such outdoor activities can't get going by then.

Yes sadly I think people are so conditioned to this 'new normal' (ugh) that they will accept it. But I certainly won't. Normality does not mean being told going abroad is illegal.

Also at lot of the pro-closed borders brigade say, disparagingly, that you can 'survive without a holiday for a year'. However, they don't think that families are split up by international borders, many businesses need international travel to fully function, people have property etc. abroad they need to visit, and on top of that so many peoples' livelihoods depend on the travel industry. This is more than giving people their annual jaunt to Mallorca.

And of course, there is the mental health aspect. Travel is my main hobby, and I'm really struggling not having the freedom to do so. But that's a very small consideration to people losing their jobs and businesses.

There are two adventure travel companies I know well that have gone bust this month alone.

 

[yorkie]

So does that mean I will finally be able to do travel short distances for day trips once again from 8th of March? Or will I have to wait until the 29th of March?

at present you can only leave your home for any of the reasons stated in the legislation, or any other reason deemed reasonable.

It remains to be seen whether additional reasons will be added to this list, or of the legislation will no longer have any restrictions on when we can leave our homes, but clearly some change is expected to apply from 8th march

Not long now before we find out!

 

[Bald Rick]

Well in the coming few weeks now as the numbers in hospital fall by about an average of 700 per day, they won't be able to say comments like those anymore. By 8th March the numbers in hospital should easily be below 10,000 I reacon. And comments like "Our hospitals are still under a great deal of pressure" and "Stay Home. Protect the NHS. Save Lives" just won't cut it anymore. The "Stay at home" guidance then really needs to go on 8th March.

To put that in context, NHS England has bed capacity for acute / general patients of just over 100,000 - this is for all clinical conditions including routine operations (it excludes maternity and mental health).

Typical occupancy, in non Covid times, is 88-92%.

 

[DB]

Also at lot of the pro-closed borders brigade say, disparagingly, that you can 'survive without a holiday for a year'. However, they don't think that families are split up by international borders, many businesses need international travel to fully function, people have property etc. abroad they need to visit, and on top of that so many peoples' livelihoods depend on the travel industry. This is more than giving people their annual jaunt to Mallorca.

The common theme with many of those who support restrictions is that they are in favour because overall it doesn't cause them any major issues (the bits they don't like are ones they can ignore in many cases if it suits them, like going to other people's houses). They may even be benefitting financially due to no commuting costs.

 

[alansheppard77]

The common theme with many of those who support restrictions is that they are in favour because overall it doesn't cause them any major issues (the bits they don't like are ones they can ignore in many cases if it suits them, like going to other people's houses). They may even be benefitting financially due to no commuting costs.

most just want it to continue so they can continue to be paid for sitting on there arse

 

[bramling]

Many I have spoken to recently at work, certainly are not 'accepting' there will be no foreign travel...the other day they were looking at the roster, suggesting that they have a bank of rest days later July....... but does it, or would it, make much difference whether you travel to Scotland, Wales or to Switzerland, Florida or California ?

Yes it probably does; as we all know what the weather can be like for British holidays. For some of us who take UK holidays as standard this isn’t an issue, but being freezing cold in summer with rain every day isn’t everyone’s cup of tea.

 

[kristiang85]

Many I have spoken to recently at work, certainly are not 'accepting' there will be no foreign travel...the other day they were looking at the roster, suggesting that they have a bank of rest days later July....... but does it, or would it, make much difference whether you travel to Scotland, Wales or to Switzerland, Florida or California ?

It does for those who travel to experience different cultures, foods, lifestyles, etc. , let alone the weather aspect.

 

[Bikeman78]

From Ben Riley-Smith‘s (political editor for the telegraph) Twitter feed:




(https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1363618743327330307?s=21)

It looks like my cautious optimism was misguided. It seems that, despite the success of the vaccination programme and 1/3 of all adults now partially immune, we will exit lockdown more slowly and that social distancing and masks will be mandatory throughout the summer. Goodbye mental health and economy.

No hotels until June stands out for me. If the government allows people to vist family from April but forbids overnight stays, opening hotels seems like a no brainer. Otherwise more people will just stay overnight with friends or family.

 

[Bantamzen]

It does for those who travel to experience different cultures, foods, lifestyles, etc. , let alone the weather aspect.

And for people like my wife who has early onset rheumatoid arthritis, being able to travel to countries with much more guaranteed, and more importantly dry heat it makes a hell of a difference in terms of quality of life. A couple of weeks in the sun can help her for months at a time.

 

[kristiang85]

And for people like my wife who has early onset rheumatoid arthritis, being able to travel to countries with much more guaranteed, and more importantly dry heat it makes a hell of a difference in terms of quality of life. A couple of weeks in the sun can help her for months at a time.

Yes, absolutely. My mum gets really bad arthritis from the cold in Scotland, and always feels amazing after she goes to Spain a couple of times a year. She's not been away since 2019 now though, and it's pretty miserable (and, on top of that, I haven't been able to go up and visit for a long time now).

Also think of all the missed opportunities for student exchanges, language learning, etc. A whole generation of youth are going to miss out on this kind of thing at this rate.

 

[Mag_seven]

I expect the only changes to the legislation on 8 March will be “open air recreation” being added back into the exceptions (from which it should frankly never have been removed - it wasn’t for the November lockdown; a cynic would suggest it was removed purely so they could give us something meaningless back!).

Yes it saves them the effort of writing something new - in effect it will be back to the November "All country Tier 4" with that "recreation clause" added back in and schools open.

 

[initiation]

Also think of all the missed opportunities for student exchanges, language learning, etc. A whole generation of youth are going to miss out on this kind of thing at this rate.

Worth noting that the loss of the Erasmus scheme was raised repeatedly by many people in the Brexit debate - whatever your views are on that debate, the travel restrictions imposed in response to Covid are far more likely to have inhibited young people travelling.

I can't imagine being an 18 year old stuck at home with your parents and not being able to legally see friends.

 

[Kite159]

No hotels until June stands out for me. If the governments allows people to vist family from April but forbids overnight stays, opening hotels seems like a no brainer. Otherwise more people will just stay overnight with friends or family.

Agreed

If hotels are still not allowed to open come June, how many won't reopen as they have gone bust, especially the smaller ones.

Wouldn't be surprised if one of the chains goes under with such a delay

 

[Ianno87]

I can't imagine being an 18 year old stuck at home with your parents and not being able to legally see friends.

It would've driven 18 year old me mental.

 

[DB]

I can't imagine being an 18 year old stuck at home with your parents and not being able to legally see friends.

From the number of teenagers now out and about in groups, many seem to be just ignoring it - and who can blame them!