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22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

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DannyMich2018

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Things are certainly returning to more normal in my area. Went shopping Morrisons Wednesday. People yes been sensible but not worrying if getting too close briefly. Even helped a gentleman fetch an item from a high shelf. Had my first leisure journey yesterday. Helped a lady with a case getting on train. People are absolutely fed up of this social distancing and not jumping into the road if passing on pavement etc. With the low cases and deaths now people in my opinion are returning to more normal habits. Even had my friend round earlier.
 
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ScotRail158725

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I haven't seen a supermarket delivery van up our 33-house cut-de-sac for ages. Used to be a couple most days. Shows people are returning to normal shopping habits, which has to be a good thing.
As a morrisons home delivery employee i i can say deliveries have certainly dropped off. For the catchment area for my store (about 200-300k) people estimated theres usually around 30-50 orders being placed a day now compared to January & February where it was well into the hundreds. In store shopping seems much busier now aswell. Things certainly seems to be looking up on the path to somewhat normality in some aspects at least
 

DelayRepay

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I haven't seen a supermarket delivery van up our 33-house cut-de-sac for ages. Used to be a couple most days. Shows people are returning to normal shopping habits, which has to be a good thing.

Same here - although not a good thing if you work as a supermarket delivery driver!

I still have deliveries - not because I'm scared of the shops but because I still work from home, so it's more convenient than going to the shop at the moment.
 

cuccir

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This in tomorrows DT https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/01/covid-modellers-optimistic-third-wave-may-not-happen/


These people just alter the narrative to fit the situation ministers should now be question the reliability of the data being presented to them.
They alter their modelling to fit the data.

The problem with SAGE's modelling if that they're not doing it frequently enough. Their projections in March, based on data from earlier that month, were reasonable: we didn't have the same level of confidence on vaccination uptake, availability and efficiency at the time: particularly availability at that point if you recall. Modelling which is being updated more frequently has been much more confident about a low to absent exit wave for the last few weeks.
 

DustyBin

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“When the facts change, I change my mind”

There’s nothing wrong with this of course, however…

I worry with SAGE that it's more a case of "When my mind changes, I change the facts".

I think there’s been a fair amount of this. There’s no doubt in my mind that there’s a narrative and this dictates which, and how the facts are presented.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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There’s nothing wrong with this of course, however…



I think there’s been a fair amount of this. There’s no doubt in my mind that there’s a narrative and this dictates which, and how the facts are presented.
Whitty and Vallance always refer to the modellers advising this is what they are telling us ie they aren't owning it but CRG were challenging the assumptions being used months ago and so has Greg Clarks Science and Technology Committee. So you would have thought as great men of science they would be questioning the assumptions and getting some real world checks every few weeks and would have exposed how far the models were deviating from forecast so they could be refined.

Of course now they will just spin it as look what a great job we have done with the vaccines (which they have or in reality NHS and volunteers have) whilst quietly ignoring all the collateral damage lockdowns have created albeit some of that was unavoidable what is debateable is how long and of what severity they are still needed. I wouldn't have minded as much had BoJo and Hancock not told us how great the vaccines were and what they do for our freedoms but then rowed back and moved the goalposts on several occasions.

Following the science not anymore this is about maximising the kudos they can derive from saving the nation from the virus.
 

brad465

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Raab saying today that some safeguards maybe needed after June 21st. I'm not surprised this has been said given what we've come to expect of this lot, but to me the safeguard is our vaccine rollout with vaccines far more effective than flu vaccines, the latter being our flu safeguard so to speak.
 

317 forever

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Indeed. Thousands of businesses have gone under as a result of these nonsense restrictions, and there are still thousands that on the brink of going under pretty soon.

Johnson keeps going on about a third wave. This may not even happen atall! And if there is a third wave of infections, due to the mitigation of the vaccines this is not going to lead to a huge surge in hospital admissions and deaths like before! The link between cases leading to hospital admissions and deaths has now been broken!

Also the excuse of having to be cautious of "variants of concern" just doesn't wash anymore. We've had numerous "variants of concern" over the past few months, all of which have been overblown by the press and media. And all of these variants have not led to an uptick in cases, hospital admissions, and deaths! All these stats have continued to tumble over the past few months.

The NHS will never again be under "extreme pressure due to Covid". Those days are long gone!

Just look at the very low daily deaths we have now, which is continuing to fall week on week. Along with the hospital admissions, people in hospital, and those on mechanical ventilators.

Enough is enough as you say. Time to get a bloody move on in getting these nuisance damaging restrictive social distancing and face mask wearing restrictions scrapped for good, and allow all the businesses and people of this country to get back to normal.
Yes, in particular the death figures. Even with 40% of the population yet to receive their jabs, the 7-day average has been just 19 a day. This is equivalent to fewer than 7000 per year. Many other causes of death such as cancer and car accidents claim over 7000 casualties per year.
 

kez19

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This in tomorrows DT https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/01/covid-modellers-optimistic-third-wave-may-not-happen/


These people just alter the narrative to fit the situation ministers should now be question the reliability of the data being presented to them.


The word karma springs to mind here but I wonder how the BBC/Sky/ITN will spin it?

I agree regardless of the narrative at play but for me it’s became a media spectacle and this will probably be the kick in the guts for them as well as those at SAGE and politicians (could be wrong) but I think the tables are turning or it’s actually turned on them
 

trainophile

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Well I packed up supermarket deliveries when I start booking leisure trips again, as I couldn't afford both! By the time I'd put OH's wine and beer on the order (seemed mean not to, even though I don't drink myself) it was always around the £80 mark. He now gets his booze from Tesco, having conquered his fear of the place.

I went to the small local Co-op this morning and used one of their three baby sized trolleys, which after I'd paid I stood at a few yards, sorry, metres distance outside the shop to sort the shopping into my carrier bags. I became aware of a chap in a mask watching me from about 10 metres away, and eventually he crept nearer and snatched a newspaper out of the display stand outside the shop, then scuttled in with it. I realised that he was not going to risk coming anywhere near me, even in the open air.

Never mind exempt lanyards, we should have "I've been jabbed" lanyards or badges!
 

317 forever

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The vibe I've been getting for several weeks now when walking around is that near enough everyone is looking forward to 21st June and finally the end of these ridiculous restrictions and a return to normal life again. Hardly anyone is "socially distancing" now when passing people in the street, as the vast majority of people know that this is absolutely pointless and ridiculous now.

With the stats the way they are now - REALLY LOW, which will be even better/lower still by 21st June, I don't see what an earth reasons Johnson could possibly give as to why these restrictions can not be scrapped on 21st June.
Given that they announced this Kent variant as an excuse to curtail Christmas, they could use the Indian variant as an excuse to postpone the June 21st relaxations.

It is also due to take until well into July for all adults to have been offered the vaccine.
 

greyman42

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Given that they announced this Kent variant as an excuse to curtail Christmas, they could use the Indian variant as an excuse to postpone the June 21st relaxations.

It is also due to take until well into July for all adults to have been offered the vaccine.
Regardless of variants or anything else that the scientists come up with, a significant rise in hospital admissions will be the only thing that could postpone the June 21st relaxations or any new tightening of restrictions in the future.
 

317 forever

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Bertie the bus

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Continuing the theme of things getting back to normal. I've noticed the M6 is getting pretty busy now and according to the Government's travel statistics car journeys are back up to approx 90% of normal levels. As many will still be working from home, non-commuting journeys are probably pretty much back to normal if not slightly above.

It's all quite reassuring and very British. None of this civil unrest some predicted for months but people just realising there is no need for many of these restrictions any more and quietly getting back to normal.
 

317 forever

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Continuing the theme of things getting back to normal. I've noticed the M6 is getting pretty busy now and according to the Government's travel statistics car journeys are back up to approx 90% of normal levels. As many will still be working from home, non-commuting journeys are probably pretty much back to normal if not slightly above.

It's all quite reassuring and very British. None of this civil unrest some predicted for months but people just realising there is no need for many of these restrictions any more and quietly getting back to normal.
Indeed people may as well live as normally as possible. If they do not like some lockdown restrictions they have 3 physically available options:

1. Comply
2. Protest
3. Ignore them
 

Jonny

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I speak as someone who has had his first ^jab^ invite and will not be taking it up, thanks to the NHS for the offer though. I would not take it by any route, even mouth (tablets, drops, etc.) or nasal spray/mist/etc (like some other vaccines). It would not be the first time that I had declined something, although previously it was statins (as in cholesterol-lowering medication, in case you missed it), on the basis that it would not do much for me and likely have side effects. I will be watching like a hawk for any postponement of relaxation-of-restriction or renewal/continuation past a statutory review point due to supposed lack of vaccine uptake, certainly with the current enabling act in place as is. The logistics of changing it would also be awkward. If they did that, it could be seen as an unlawful requirement to receive medical treatment that would invalidate the regulation (Section 45E of the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984).

There seem to be three themes:

1) People who are genuinely bothered that either the vaccine isn’t 100% effective, or that a new strain is going to emerge which subverts the vaccine.

2) People who think *everyone* should be vaccinated before things open up

3) People who want to big all this up in order to maintain the elements of their current lifestyle which they find agreeable. I think we all know what that is, so I’m not going to repeat it!

I can get the first one to a point, but equally such people need to realise that the logical conclusion is permanent lockdown, which isn’t viable. The second ones I think are just plain daft, and I would be breaking forum rules to put into words my feelings on the third group!

A lot of people seem to pay little regard to the wider consequences of all this, which I find rather selfish.

I am picking up a vibe that there is a core of people who seem to feel that the “new normal” (a term I despise in itself) is hibernation every winter. I suspect that we are going to find an element of pressure for this every time NHS admissions rise, as they do every winter. This needs to be strongly resisted, I for one do not want a way of life where we hibernate under a bed of restrictions every year from November to May.

On the first two, they have to recognise that some people will have to respect the fact that others do not wish to take a pharmacological treatment, particularly a relatively new one, unless it gives a substantial benefit to them and accept that there is going to be a small level of risk from that. After all, if "my body, my choice" is a good enough reason to have a certain other procedure then it is a good enough reason to decline vaccination. I would hardly call the likely outcome of 99.5%+ coronavirus infections produce only mild symptoms worth having a vaccination for. In fact, I will likely be letting future ones pass as well.

Why do the Government appear to assume that everybody has a smartphone. I have never seen any added guidance such as "If you haven't got a Smartphone.........."

This is an extract from the Daily Telegraph where a pub refused to serve an elderly man without a Smartphone.:-

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/13/older-drinkers-risk-discrimination-says-charity-pub-refuses/

The poll on the Telegraph vaccine passport item currently suggests 11% of people don't have a smartphone (and probably more who do but it is not compatible with the NHS app).

I was refused entry to one pub on the South Bank last summer because I didn't have a smartphone. There again another pub wrote my details on what looked like a doodle pad which would probably be shredded at the end of the day.

You have to wonder, if there was a campaign to get people to use smartphones, for the sake of it, then the Government could not do much better than they are now. I seem to remember hearing "never let a good crisis go to waste" once.


Can anyone here tell me why the man on the train believes that the presence or absence of a lanyard makes any difference at all to anyone at all.
I really cannot understand and can only think it is to appease people who are hard of thinking
To give the train manager his due he certainly knows that a lanyard is not important

When an exemption lanyard, or something like it, makes a difference to someone's view, you have to ask whether someone has not only taken the propaganda but proverbially swallowed it without question and gone back for more. Also, if it was recent then why was he bothering, over a virus that is retreating as well as can be expected?

Also, the whole eating/drinking business while on board rather undermines the point of having face coverings in the first place.

As for the loudmouth, I would like to see his response to "Why bother if I'm not going to take the vaccine?"
Come 21st June when these blasted social distancing and face mask wearing restrictions are due to be scrapped, that really should be it and supermarkets/shops, train/bus/coach operators, etc, etc will be no longer allowed to enforce these rules on their premises/vehicles. If it is the case though that businesses can optionally keep enforcing these restrictions if they so wish, then it is going to put a LOT of customers/passengers off from using these businesses/transport operators. I for one won't be using any supermarkets after 21st June if they still keep these nonsense restrictions going(along with their incredibly annoying PA messages going off every few minutes telling us we must wear face masks and socially distance), they can forget my custom! Same goes with coach and train operators, I won't be using them to travel with anymore(unless it's essential journeys I have to make and there are no alternatives). Many many people will be thinking the same as me!

The sooner the better, there is very little need for them even now; what is it that vaccinations are "breaking the link" (or should that be links) between cases, hospitalisations and deaths. If they have a monopoly or near-monopoly on a service that is essential or near-essential, such that "go elsewhere" is not an option, such a business would deserve to be dragged over the proverbial coals unless they can give a very good reason why such precautions and/or being vaccinated are/is necessary.
 

trainophile

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Can anyone answer a simple question... is it now permitted to stay in a hotel in Wales if you travel from England? There's such a jumble of hits come up on Google, most of them out of date, that I can't find a definitive answer.
 

TravelDream

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Can anyone answer a simple question... is it now permitted to stay in a hotel in Wales if you travel from England? There's such a jumble of hits come up on Google, most of them out of date, that I can't find a definitive answer.

All travel restrictions between England and Wales have now ended.
 

LAX54

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Things are certainly returning to more normal in my area. Went shopping Morrisons Wednesday. People yes been sensible but not worrying if getting too close briefly. Even helped a gentleman fetch an item from a high shelf. Had my first leisure journey yesterday. Helped a lady with a case getting on train. People are absolutely fed up of this social distancing and not jumping into the road if passing on pavement etc. With the low cases and deaths now people in my opinion are returning to more normal habits. Even had my friend round earlier.
Our local Tesco, they are very strict on which door you are allowed in, and woe betide you if you try to get in the wrong door! however once inside the store, there are no rules at all, everyone mixing, and waiting fairly close together at the checkouts ! makes the front door ruling seem a bit daft !
 

island

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Come 21st June when these blasted social distancing and face mask wearing restrictions are due to be scrapped, that really should be it and supermarkets/shops, train/bus/coach operators, etc, etc will be no longer allowed to enforce these rules on their premises/vehicles.
It has not yet been confirmed that England will scrap face covering rules from 21 June. (Although the law requiring them on public transport expires on the 14th as it stands.)
I am very bothered that the new thing is likely to be just this - we get let out of our box for a few months over the summer, then back to “tough restrictions” to “protect the NHS”. I think there’s quite a real possibility of that happening to at least some extent if people don’t actively resist it. The only saving grace is possibly that such a policy is completely unaffordable, but that doesn’t seem to stop things any more!
I am very afraid that this will happen.
 

Class 33

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I am very afraid that this will happen.

Why are you certain that "tough restrictions to protect the NHS" WILL happen during the autumn/winter? If as expected the Coronavirus hospitalizations and deaths do not rise this autumn/winter, then what an earth justifications will there to be bring back tough restrictions to protect the NHS??!! If tough restrictions do get brought back for stupidly ridiculous reasons, then I think there will be hell to pay. Many people won't stand for all this madness brought back again and severely damaging the economy, people's livelihoods and mental health all over again. There's more important things in this country than just protecting the NHS!

That said though I am very confident that tough restrictions will NOT be coming back again, as there just won't be any valid reasons for these to brought back again.
 

Class 33

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I did not say any such thing.

OK sorry I misread your post as saying "I am afraid that this will happen.".

But to reiterate, I really do not think that "tough measures to protect the NHS" will be brought back again this autumn/winter. Look at the hospitalizations and deaths stats now. They've all absolutely tumbled over the past few months and are still continuing to fall week on week. By around October near enough all adults in the UK would have received both jabs. Of all the millions who have already been vaccinated, the last report was that only 32 of those people have been admitted to hospital. Hospital numbers and deaths won't be surging up out of control again, and the NHS won't be under extreme pressure again due to Coronavirus. I think those days are thankfully well and truly over now. So there just won't be any valid justifications to ever bring back "tough restrictions" again.

Meanwhile there is conflicting information from Johnson and Raab today with easing of restrictions. Johnson saying he promises to scrap social distancing completely on 21st June. Whilst Raab is saying some social distancing in some settings may have to remain after 21st June!! Who to believe??!!
 

trainophile

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OK sorry I misread your post as saying "I am afraid that this will happen.".

But to reiterate, I really do not think that "tough measures to protect the NHS" will be brought back again this autumn/winter. Look at the hospitalizations and deaths stats now. They've all absolutely tumbled over the past few months and are still continuing to fall week on week. By around October near enough all adults in the UK would have received both jabs. Of all the millions who have already been vaccinated, the last report was that only 32 of those people have been admitted to hospital. Hospital numbers and deaths won't be surging up out of control again, and the NHS won't be under extreme pressure again due to Coronavirus. I think those days are thankfully well and truly over now. So there just won't be any valid justifications to ever bring back "tough restrictions" again.

Meanwhile there is conflicting information from Johnson and Raab today with easing of restrictions. Johnson saying he promises to scrap social distancing completely on 21st June. Whilst Raab is saying some social distancing in some settings may have to remain after 21st June!! Who to believe??!!

Johnson is senior to Raab so we should go with his views.
 

takno

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OK sorry I misread your post as saying "I am afraid that this will happen.".

But to reiterate, I really do not think that "tough measures to protect the NHS" will be brought back again this autumn/winter. Look at the hospitalizations and deaths stats now. They've all absolutely tumbled over the past few months and are still continuing to fall week on week. By around October near enough all adults in the UK would have received both jabs. Of all the millions who have already been vaccinated, the last report was that only 32 of those people have been admitted to hospital. Hospital numbers and deaths won't be surging up out of control again, and the NHS won't be under extreme pressure again due to Coronavirus. I think those days are thankfully well and truly over now. So there just won't be any valid justifications to ever bring back "tough restrictions" again.

Meanwhile there is conflicting information from Johnson and Raab today with easing of restrictions. Johnson saying he promises to scrap social distancing completely on 21st June. Whilst Raab is saying some social distancing in some settings may have to remain after 21st June!! Who to believe??!!
Johnson is a more consistent liar. However, since Raab said "social distancing or masks" and Johnson said "no social distancing", I know where I'd put my money
 
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