Timetable implications of Avanti West Coast's 805/807 Hitachi AT300 sets

[The Planner]

I suspect it's actually having seen the success of the Trent Valley LNR service and wanting some pie themselves.

Considering the re-write has been a joint venture with everyone, including GUT as open access, TfN, West Mids etc, it isn't Avanti led.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

The second Liverpool, if its rights are granted, has TV stops. Your last paragraph sums up things, but I am not sure levelling up is the reason behind it.

Might I ask which TV stations? It's notable that Rugeley Trent Valley and Atherstone currently have no Avanti West Coast service, the former being due to platform lengths in relation to Pendolinos and the latter likely to be attributed to insufficient demand. I assume they'll be calling at Nuneaton and perhaps Tamworth and Lichfield.

 

[Johnny Lewis]

Assuming I am correct in thinking that the new fleet will be a mix of 5 and 7 coach trains, I wonder what the split between Standard and First will be? And if the 7s will also try and squeeze some Standard Premium into the mix? I'm guessing like the Voyagers, there won't be any SP on the 5 car trains.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Assuming I am correct in thinking that the new fleet will be a mix of 5 and 7 coach trains

Yes.

I wonder what the split between Standard and First will be? And if the 7s will also try and squeeze some Standard Premium into the mix? I'm guessing like the Voyagers, there won't be any SP on the 5 car trains.

The idea is I believe the 5s run doubled up to Chester, so I wouldn't be surprised if one 1st (the one running through) had full service and the other would be SP without service.

 

[TheBigD]

Assuming I am correct in thinking that the new fleet will be a mix of 5 and 7 coach trains, I wonder what the split between Standard and First will be? And if the 7s will also try and squeeze some Standard Premium into the mix? I'm guessing like the Voyagers, there won't be any SP on the 5 car trains.

Wikipedia (assuming it is right) list a capacity of 301 seats for the 5 car 805s. If you compare that to a 5 car LNER Azuma, that has 48 1st and 254 std seats, 302 in total.

The capacity the for the the 7 car 807s as shown as 453 seats. Assuming a similar proportion of 1st to std, that would suggest around 75 1st and 375 std, but that is just my guess.

 

[Joshua483]

How much faster can the 807's accelerate up to 110mph and 125mph when compared with the super voyagers?

 

[nw1]

So reading between the lines would the Liverpool's be something like:

1 - MKC, Crewe, Runcorn
2 - TV (Nuneaton or Tamworth at a guess), Crewe, Liverpool South Parkway

Assuming Liverpool 2 gets the go-ahead ?

What will Stafford get incidentally if that happens? For a long time (since around 1982 or 1983) Stafford's London service has been provided primarily by the Liverpools. Will it be the North Wales?

In which case Stafford will have a 100% diesel service to London, which will be odd for somewhere long under the wires.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In which case Stafford will have a 100% diesel service to London, which will be odd for somewhere long under the wires.

805s will be running on electricity under the wires. And don't forget the LNR which is definitely an EMU!

 

[TheBigD]

What will Stafford get incidentally if that happens? For a long time (since around 1982 or 1983) Stafford's London service has been provided primarily by the Liverpools. Will it be the North Wales?

In which case Stafford will have a 100% diesel service to London, which will be odd for somewhere long under the wires.

The 805s are bi mode. They'll be running on electrickery Crewe to London.

 

[Starmill]

All rather foreseeable. Lots of talk but it remains to be seen where 125mph non-tilt speeds materialise. Still, nothing like selling a slower journey time as an improvement!

You do have to wonder how much extra it would have cost from the origination of the procurement process to specify EPS-capable trains for TransPennine Express and Avanti West Coast. I admit that these procurement timelines weren't aligned, so there would have been either delay to delivery or payments earlier than otherwise necessary but still. Effective command-and-control is supposed to be one of the advantages of highly centralised management structures, but in reality we receive the worst of both worlds as usual.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You do have to wonder how much extra it would have cost from the origination of the procurement process to specify EPS-capable trains for TransPennine Express and Avanti West Coast. I admit that these procurement timelines weren't aligned, so there would have been either delay to delivery or payments earlier than otherwise necessary but still. Effective command-and-control is supposed to be one of the advantages of highly centralised management structures, but in reality we receive the worst of both worlds as usual.

To be fair, there is one improvement - improved shoulder and elbow room. I'd certainly seek out the 80x over the claustrophobic Pendolino, particularly if, as it seems, the cost of it is just a few minutes.

 

[Starmill]

Actually quite a smart way of doing it, as the GJT increase of 5 minutes is offset by the decrease in journey time, whilst still providing improved connectivity between Coventry/Rugby/MK/Watford.

A true half-hourly fast service has lots of commercial potential I agree. If capacity is maximised it could actually make the railway's overall service more competitive in the long run than the one that's been running for the last 15ish years.

 

[Pumbaa]

Considering the re-write has been a joint venture with everyone, including GUT as open access, TfN, West Mids etc, it isn't Avanti led.

But arguably the Avanti spec has its roots in a pre-Covid world, and they haven’t shaken that off. If we were starting now, it wouldn’t look like this.

I’d also put the chances of the second Liverpool getting rights any time soon slim to none. Lots of chatter about the quality of the performance modelling, and still lots of pressure on maintaining performance at a top level.

 

[The Planner]

Might I ask which TV stations? It's notable that Rugeley Trent Valley and Atherstone currently have no Avanti West Coast service, the former being due to platform lengths in relation to Pendolinos and the latter likely to be attributed to insufficient demand. I assume they'll be calling at Nuneaton and perhaps Tamworth and Lichfield.

You assume correctly.

But arguably the Avanti spec has its roots in a pre-Covid world, and they haven’t shaken that off. If we were starting now, it wouldn’t look like this.

I’d also put the chances of the second Liverpool getting rights any time soon slim to none. Lots of chatter about the quality of the performance modelling, and still lots of pressure on maintaining performance at a top level.

I don't understand that point of view, a lot of it comes down to understanding what the modelling is telling you. Most people glaze over straight away or assume its a PPM figure which it isn't.

 

[A0]

Might I ask which TV stations? It's notable that Rugeley Trent Valley and Atherstone currently have no Avanti West Coast service, the former being due to platform lengths in relation to Pendolinos and the latter likely to be attributed to insufficient demand. I assume they'll be calling at Nuneaton and perhaps Tamworth and Lichfield.

You assume correctly.

I understand Tamworth and Nuneaton as they are interchanges with Cross Country - Lichfield I don't understand.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I understand Tamworth and Nuneaton as they are interchanges with Cross Country - Lichfield I don't understand.

It always used to have an InterCity service, only Rugeley (I think), Atherstone and Polesworth didn't. I guess to some extent it's a railhead for Cannock, Burntwood, Brownhills and Walsall, though to be fair Tamworth is very close by too.

 

[The Planner]

I understand Tamworth and Nuneaton as they are interchanges with Cross Country - Lichfield I don't understand.

Still connects to the Cross City north and it isn't just about connections.

 

[TheDavibob]

And once you're stopping at Tamworth you almost might as well stop at Lichfield.

Anecdotal, but every time I use an evening northbound West Coast service that stops at both Tamworth and Lichfield, considerably more people alight at the latter.

 

[Johnny Lewis]

And once you're stopping at Tamworth you almost might as well stop at Lichfield.

Anecdotal, but every time I use an evening northbound West Coast service that stops at both Tamworth and Lichfield, considerably more people alight at the latter.

I think I'm right that if a Down (northbound) train stops at Tamworth, it HAS to continue on the Down Slow to Lichfield, which is why the majority of calls at Tamworth and Lichfield tend to be in the same trains. Is it the case in the Up direction too?

 

[The Planner]

I think I'm right that if a Down (northbound) train stops at Tamworth, it HAS to continue on the Down Slow to Lichfield, which is why the majority of calls at Tamworth and Lichfield tend to be in the same trains. Is it the case in the Up direction too?

Yep, no crossovers between the two stations. Amington to the south of Tamworth, Lichfield North/Curborough at the north.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

I hope that doesn't mean losing direct MK to Scotland, as that was a huge gain. I suspect it does, though, and representations need to be made.

Odd comment. If MK wants direct services to Scotland, via Birmingham isn’t the right way anyway. A change off the Holyheads at Crewe, or another service if the second Liverpool can do MK, would be best. When HS2 comes, you won’t get anything out of Euston on the legacy network to Scotland anyway - it will all be connections via Crewe.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

Well as Ministers were involved I assumed there would be no decision. Smoke sometime next week perhaps. But if they couldn’t get comfortable with it up until now, I don’t see how they’d suddenly get there.


Essentially a swap between the Liverpool and Chester - Liverpool gets the MK, Chester gets the Stafford.

I don’t see a major issue then. It looks sensible to me, and the shorter Chester trains aren’t then being filled with MK passengers all day.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

If MKC is to swap the Liverpool for the North Wales, as seems to be the case, then that Liverpool absolutely must retain a Crewe stop, if it doesn't then journey times from MKC will increase significantly to North Wales, to the North West (i.e. Warrington/Wigan/Preston) and to Scotland, by needing to either go via Manchester, via Birmingham with a change or use the much slower LNR. This would be unacceptable.

Unacceptable to you, but probably not to almost everyone else…

 

[krus_aragon]

Odd comment. If MK wants direct services to Scotland, via Birmingham isn’t the right way anyway. A change off the Holyheads at Crewe, or another service if the second Liverpool can do MK, would be best. When HS2 comes, you won’t get anything out of Euston on the legacy network to Scotland anyway - it will all be connections via Crewe.

Earlier comments indicated that Holyhead would be ditching the MK stop for a Stafford one though, with a Liverpool service picking up the MK stop instead.

It's a bit beyond the timescale of this timetable change, but Crewe will become more relevant for Chester/North Wales passengers too, as no HS2 services are planned to head toward Chester. I've no idea if there are concrete decisions about still running the 805s through to London post-HS2, or use the stock to operating a more frequent Crewe-Holyhead shuttle service. London-Crewe is expected to be over 30 minutes faster on HS2 than a non-stop service on the WCML, so changing could end up being the faster option, depending on timings and frequency of trains at Crewe.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's a bit beyond the timescale of this timetable change, but Crewe will become more relevant for Chester/North Wales passengers too, as no HS2 services are planned to head toward Chester. I've no idea if there are concrete decisions about still running the 805s through to London post-HS2, or use the stock to operating a more frequent Crewe-Holyhead shuttle service. London-Crewe is expected to be over 30 minutes faster on HS2 than a non-stop service on the WCML, so changing could end up being the faster option, depending on timings and frequency of trains at Crewe.

I think the way to find out would be to continue to run the service and see if it is well-used or if people prefer connecting onto HS2.

If it isn't, I'd expect the 805s to go elsewhere and an hourly fast TfW Crewe service to take the paths, possibly even continuing to Birmingham via Stafford as it did some years ago. This would have the considerable advantage of fully regularising the North Wales timetable.

 

[krus_aragon]

If it isn't, I'd expect the 805s to go elsewhere and an hourly fast TfW Crewe service to take the paths, possibly even continuing to Birmingham via Stafford as it did some years ago. This would have the considerable advantage of fully regularising the North Wales timetable.

The planned switch to a Chester-Stafford-Euston calling pattern could be a useful stepping stone to such a change, whether the 805s stay or not.

 

[47421]

anyone know if decision to proceed with this recast or not has been made? when can we expect detailed proposals to be made public?

 

[87015]

anyone know if decision to proceed with this recast or not has been made? when can we expect detailed proposals to be made public?

Euston got to be made to work yet!

 

[MattRat]

To be fair, there is one improvement - improved shoulder and elbow room. I'd certainly seek out the 80x over the claustrophobic Pendolino, particularly if, as it seems, the cost of it is just a few minutes.

If it's that close in speed to the Pendolino's, I'll eat my hat. The IETs might have acceleration, but the Pendolino has momentum. Only thing that stops it at 125 is stations (which includes stations entrances and exits just so we are clear).

 

[Bletchleyite]

If it's that close in speed to the Pendolino's, I'll eat my hat. The IETs might have acceleration, but the Pendolino has momentum. Only thing that stops it at 125 is stations (which includes stations entrances and exits just so we are clear).

The "Pretendolino" Mk3 set (110 and poor acceleration) only typically lost 2-3 minutes between Euston and MKC on 390 timings, if that is any help.