Northern to London - could it work?

[A S Leib]

An alternative route could be Marylebone via Shrewsbury, if no space on the WCML. Basically Manchester-Crewe-Shrewsbury via Bolton/Chat Moss & then the same route that the former Wrexham & Shropshire used (avoiding New Street), but running non-stop after Leamington Spa to avoid fare abstraction fron the local stations on the Chiltern route.

Northern would need more DMUs, bi-modes/hybrid or loco-hauled to run it but this wouldn't be a major obstacle. The single line south of Coventry may present capacity problems, but this needs doubling as it's an intercity line, so money should be spent on this anyway.

Does the Chiltern Main Line have capacity, and does Chiltern currently plan to work towards their pre-covid service pattern?

 

[Bald Rick]

An alternative route could be Marylebone via Shrewsbury, if no space on the WCML. Basically Manchester-Crewe-Shrewsbury via Bolton/Chat Moss & then the same route that the former Wrexham & Shropshire used (avoiding New Street), but running non-stop after Leamington Spa to avoid fare abstraction fron the local stations on the Chiltern route.

That would be 4hrs minimum! Can‘t see there being any fare abstraction. or, indeed, any fares collected.

Given that the budget traveller can do Piccadilly to Euston for £20 with Avanti, why would anyone want to spend more to take about twice as long ?

 

[Neptune]

Have you tried getting on a class 390 or class 8xx unit with being in a wheelchair? The trains are not compliant,

If they weren’t compliant they would not be in traffic or can you point us to where this is written down and what the derogation is and for how long?

if you talk to people within the disabled community with regards having to book tickets about 4 - 6 weeks in advance and then you have to believe that you will be lucky on the day with station staff etc.... as demonstrated by a recent video posted on Youtube, where a train entered Kings Cross station the wrong way round for a disabled person to be able to enter the train.

The ramp couldn’t be put down but that wasn’t due to the design of the train. It was station furniture in the way. Way back many moons ago when I was a guard I remember some stations where the stop had to be precise due to platform width and associated platform furniture.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That would be 4hrs minimum! Can‘t see there being any fare abstraction. or, indeed, any fares collected.

While I don't support its return due to unpunctuality and the effect on the rest of the service, surprisingly many people actually did do the 5 hour LNR trundle from Liverpool to Euston.

Given that the budget traveller can do Piccadilly to Euston for £20 with Avanti, why would anyone want to spend more to take about twice as long ?

Cheap walk up fares (or Advances you don't have to book weeks in advance) are the key. Indeed, I question whether most of the WCML PUG would have been worthwhile if COVID had happened in 1995 - people don't now want expensive and fast, they just want cheap and not too slow. An entire rail network looking like Chiltern with wires (but with longer trains) is probably what you'd look at now, not Pendolinos at 125.

The reason I said Manchester or Liverpool is that a 3 hour ish journey time on a direct train from either of those would certainly fill a 12 car 350 once an hour, easily. Indeed I'm fairly strongly of the view that the second Liverpool to Euston being a LNR rather than Avanti would be extremely popular.

 

[The Planner]

Unless the South Wales-Manchester went via Warrington & the Chat Moss line into Victoria?

Winsford to Weaver is just as congested.

As an alternative to losing the TfW service to Manchester. You could add a unit to the Manchester to Bournemouth service to continue to Cardiff

How do you serve Shrewsbury and the Marches? That train would go via Cheltenham or a massive dogleg via Hereford. It would be adding so much time on.

An alternative route could be Marylebone via Shrewsbury, if no space on the WCML. Basically Manchester-Crewe-Shrewsbury via Bolton/Chat Moss & then the same route that the former Wrexham & Shropshire used (avoiding New Street), but running non-stop after Leamington Spa to avoid fare abstraction fron the local stations on the Chiltern route.

Northern would need more DMUs, bi-modes/hybrid or loco-hauled to run it but this wouldn't be a major obstacle. The single line south of Coventry may present capacity problems, but this needs doubling as it's an intercity line, so money should be spent on this anyway.

See above about Winsford Weaver and how are you getting to the WCML from Bolton? Unless it was 20p, no one would be going from Manchester to Marylebone with that journey time. Piccadilly to Warrington via Earlestown is going to be 30 minutes, Warrington to Crewe another 20, Crewe to Shrewsbury another 30, Shrewsbury to Wolves 30 minutes, Wolves to Leamington via Bescot a good hour. Leamington to Marylebone another 75 odd minutes. As @Bald Rick says, 4 hours without trying and with nothing else in front of you.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

What was London Euston to Manchester Victoria (via Warrington Bank Quay) back in the late 1990s? Something like three hours and twenty minutes?

 

[skyhigh]

Northern would need more DMUs, bi-modes/hybrid or loco-hauled to run it but this wouldn't be a major obstacle.

Where would these units come from?
Who would fund them?
Where would there be space to maintain them?

 

[jfollows]

What was London Euston to Manchester Victoria (via Warrington Bank Quay) back in the late 1990s? Something like three hours and twenty minutes?

Up service was 3h32m (https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...rcity-rail-service.239788/page-6#post-5948956) for example. 07:00 - 10:32.

 

[Bald Rick]

Indeed, I question whether most of the WCML PUG would have been worthwhile if COVID had happened in 1995 - people don't now want expensive and fast, they just want cheap and not too slow.

I‘m not sure about that. Plenty of people value the faster option. If they didn’t, Avanti wouldnt have any Lonodn - Crewe or London - Rugby / W Mids traffic.

While I don't support its return due to unpunctuality and the effect on the rest of the service, surprisingly many people actually did do the 5 hour LNR trundle from Liverpool to Euston.

That was before Avanti started doing £15 fares though (available for services next Monday), or tomorrow for £24 with a railcard £35 without.

 

[Starmill]

It would be a relative loss in revenue as well as the WG going mad. Cardiff Manchester earns a big chunk of cash, more than what cheap tickets via LNWR would bring. Especially with the journey time penalty it would bring to TfW passengers. Without finding an extra path, the LNWR arrives xx.54 and the TfW path is xx.30 northbound, southbound is better as the TfW arrives at xx.10 with the LNWR going at xx13, you couldn't actually make that any better if you tried to join a path, but it doesn't work as a connection to the two journeys as Crewe requires 10 minutes. If you tried to extend the LNWR path, it would need to leave at xx.56, and be reliable as hell or the down fast Glasgow behind it would get clattered. The next issue is the Crewe stopper, that leaves at xx.46, you will run that down at Wilmslow.

Sure it's bad news commercially for the Manchester - Swansea inclusive section without a doubt, and in any case a pair of 350s would never serve for an LNR-priced London - Manchester through service. Even a double Lumo set wouldn't have enough seats, unless you're selling standing only tickets that don't permit people to sit.

It's all a hypothetical as TfW have those rights and nobody is taking them off them.

couldn't actually make that any better if you tried to join a path, but it doesn't work as a connection to the two journeys as Crewe requires 10 minutes

You'd be absolutely amazed how many people do this connection even though it's no longer long enough to meet the minimum time. Thanks in no small part to Manchester Piccadilly ticket office advising people do it, and now they do so even more than before too because making the connection sub-threshold ironically speeded the journey up!

That was before Avanti started doing £15 fares though.

The number of sales Superfare is getting is hilariously small compared to the number of long-distance sales on LNR, as well you know.

Superfare and Secret Fare are deliberately designed to be awkward and inconvenient, in order to market lower rates where there's capacity but crucially to prevent existing (as was) FG customers from down-trading. LNR Off Peak and Super Off Peak are deliberately designed to be as competitive as possible and are totally the opposite of Avanti West Coast Superfare.

 

[6Gman]

Bearing in mind this is a speculative question, but if there are going to be 350/2s available once LNR/WMT receive their new EMUs, what would be wrong with using these?

Because the 3+2 seating makes them uncomfortable, even for a slimline like me (5' 8" and 10 stone)?

Because they'd be a Northern micro-fleet?

 

[Bald Rick]

The number of sales Superfare is getting is hilariously small compared to the number of long-distance sales on LNR, as well you know.

I didn’t know, as it happens. I‘m surprised that anyone has access to both sets of data.

 

[Starmill]

I didn’t know, as it happens. I‘m surprised that anyone has access to both sets of data.

OK but enough knowledge to be aware that Superfare by itself is a small part of the market? That's very widespread knowledge surely?

Also it's absolutely 100% public knowledge that Superfare and LNR Off Peak are very, very different products.

 

[Bald Rick]

OK but enough knowledge to be aware that Superfare by itself is a small part of the market? That's very widespread knowledge surely?

Depends by what you mean widespread. For those with an interest in fares and access to detailed data, perhaps. For everyone else (including me)…. not so much!

 

[Howardh]

Leaving aside the random pattern of Ryanair-style stops (Bushey for Watford I presume - you could try Kings Langley for the M25 instead?), your main problem is that neither Oxford Road nor Victoria has the capacity for terminating trains from the West. You could, I suppose, reverse there and run to Bolton, which might tap a real market as well.

In my dreams! For a station/town which is basically inter-city (wires/long distance trains) it's dreadful we aren't linked to London. The route to Wigan, and reversing, simply adds on unnecessary time*. Also, we don't have any connections to the east either, everything from here goes no further than Stalybridge.

*Edit, on looking at a map, Bolton > Euston via Wigan (reversing) doesn't seem to lose that much more time compared to going through the corridor. I'd expect the former to be appx 20 mins and the same to get past Piccadilly.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In my dreams! For a station/town which is basically inter-city (wires/long distance trains) it's dreadful we aren't linked to London. The route to Wigan, and reversing, simply adds on unnecessary time. Also, we don't have any connections to the east either, everything from here goes no further than Stalybridge.

Going to London from Bolton why would you go via Wigan and not Manchester, when the latter has a far better service and because of that usually cheaper Advances, plus the better facilities e.g. retail at the interchange station and the civility of boarding at a terminus?

I can't think of one single reason why I'd want to go via Wigan to London from Bolton.

To be fair I would support the idea of extending one of the London-Manchester services to become the Glasgow/Edinburgh with a proper length train replacing the one from the airport, but it would require Piccadilly 15/16 to be built* because 13/14 couldn't cope with a full Pendolino boarding/disgorging, it would be dangerous.

* Or wider side platforms replacing the island, which if you're willing to sacrifice 12 and build over the gap between 13 and the main building, and to cantilever off the other side, is entirely possible and a lot cheaper. That arrangement would work well at Liverpool Central too, and would be cheaper than a second island.

 

[Howardh]

Going to London from Bolton why would you go via Wigan and not Manchester, when the latter has a far better service and because of that usually cheaper Advances, plus the better facilities e.g. retail at the interchange station and the civility of boarding at a terminus?

I can't think of one single reason why I'd want to go via Wigan to London from Bolton.

To be fair I would support the idea of extending one of the London-Manchester services to become the Glasgow/Edinburgh with a proper length train replacing the one from the airport, but it would require Piccadilly 15/16 to be built* because 13/14 couldn't cope with a full Pendolino boarding/disgorging, it would be dangerous.

* Or wider side platforms replacing the island, which if you're willing to sacrifice 12 and build over the gap between 13 and the main building, and to cantilever off the other side, is entirely possible and a lot cheaper. That arrangement would work well at Liverpool Central too, and would be cheaper than a second island.

To avoid changing at Piccadilly. I'd rather add 10 - 15 mins onto my journey (maybe it could be even less) than maul around p13/14, up the steps/lifts, down the steps and also worry that my train doesn't get there on time so I miss my connection and lose another 20 mins. Personal, obviously, but that would be my ticket.

We should give it a go and let the locals decide which services they prefer.

EDIT looking at a map, you could do that and avoid Wigan stations (and reversing) if the line west of Hindley was rebuilt joining the WCML at Spring View. But going via Picc would be the better option, just the constraints of the corridor preclude it - probably.

 

[TheSmiths82]

There is a desperate need for another TOC to compete on the Manchester to London direct service, even if it ends up an east coast service via Sheffield. I am not sure that Northern is the right company to do it, but I would welcome a new LNER service. I know you can change at Crewe but TFW connection makes it a faff. If you start adding a any train ticket the LNER Crewe service then it starts to get expensive and makes Avanti seem well worth paying the extra for.

I know Manchester has three Avanti trains to London per hour, but it is expensive and a lot of people would rather pay less for a slower more flexible service.

 

[Howardh]

There is a desperate need for another TOC to compete on the Manchester to London direct service, even if it ends up an east coast service via Sheffield. I am not sure that Northern is the right company to do it, but I would welcome a new LNER service. I know you can change at Crewe but TFW connection makes it a faff. If you start adding a any train ticket the LNER Crewe service then it starts to get expensive and makes Avanti seem well worth paying the extra for.

I know Manchester has three Avanti trains to London per hour, but it is expensive and a lot of people would rather pay less for a slower more flexible service.

I used exactly that (Change at Crewe for LNW) when Avanti was having it's "difficulties" and although longer, was cheaper and much more reliable. The faff was getting from Bolton to Crewe. If LondonNorthwestern can go to Liverpool, surely they could go up to Warrington, Wigan and even Preston if the capacity allowed?

But you are correct, it's a disgrace that Avanti don't really have any competition from Manchester.

 

[YorkRailFan]

There is a desperate need for another TOC to compete on the Manchester to London direct service, even if it ends up an east coast service via Sheffield. I am not sure that Northern is the right company to do it, but I would welcome a new LNER service. I know you can change at Crewe but TFW connection makes it a faff. If you start adding a any train ticket the LNER Crewe service then it starts to get expensive and makes Avanti seem well worth paying the extra for.

I know Manchester has three Avanti trains to London per hour, but it is expensive and a lot of people would rather pay less for a slower more flexible service.

Pretty sure you mean LN(W)R not LNER here.

 

[skyhigh]

There is a desperate need for another TOC to compete on the Manchester to London direct service

What are you hoping for with competition?

If it's lower fares, that's not going to happen as everything is controlled by the DfT/Treasury. They're not going to undercut themselves.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If it's lower fares, that's not going to happen as everything is controlled by the DfT/Treasury. They're not going to undercut themselves.

They already do with LNR. And plenty of nationalised railways e.g. SNCF and DB have their own cheaper and more expensive options. Done well it doesn't abstract, it segments and widens the market. I think this would be particularly true of both Liverpool and Manchester due to the very large younger populations of both.

Even Avanti does it to themselves - Advances on the "via Birmingham" Scotland services tend to be rather cheaper than the fast ones, and I suspect we'll see the same with the Birmingham semifast when that starts.

 

[A S Leib]

Even Avanti does it to themselves - Advances on the "via Birmingham" Scotland services tend to be rather cheaper than the fast ones, and I suspect we'll see the same with the Birmingham semifast when that starts.

What do you mean by the Birmingham semifast – the Birmingham terminator already calls at Watford, Milton Keynes and Rugby, which seems like a semifast journey to me – and does the former bit apply to journeys to Birmingham as well as London, to undercut CrossCountry?

 

[pokemonsuper9]

I can't think of one single reason why I'd want to go via Wigan to London from Bolton.

Via Wigan is quicker. Saves about 15 minutes, not including the change.

I always go via Wigan when I go South, although the situation on my line is quite different to from Bolton (no direct trains into Picc).

 

[Bletchleyite]

What do you mean by the Birmingham semifast – the Birmingham terminator already calls at Watford, Milton Keynes and Rugby, which seems like a semifast journey to me – and does the former bit apply to journeys to Birmingham as well as London, to undercut CrossCountry?

This only operates at some times of day (mainly morning/evening peak but there are a few others). For most of the day the Glasgow/Edinburgh drops into the semifast path.

When the 807s arrive the semifast will be hourly all day, and will likely be very quiet, stuck in a "price gap" between a fast Avanti journey and a slow but very cheap LNR one, and is unlikely to be filled by Watford, MK and Rugby passengers alone. Thus there'll be a need to price people onto it.

 

[A S Leib]

This only operates at some times of day (mainly morning/evening peak but there are a few others). For most of the day the Glasgow/Edinburgh drops into the semifast path.

When the 807s arrive the semifast will be hourly all day, and will likely be very quiet, stuck in a "price gap" between a fast Avanti journey and a slow but very cheap LNR one, and is unlikely to be filled by Watford, MK and Rugby passengers alone. Thus there'll be a need to price people onto it.

OK. I'd guess that's related to Watford Junction having a more or less hourly service to Preston and Carlisle up until 14:31 (no 08:31) and then nothing else via Warrington except a 21:25 via Nuneaton (and the Lowlander)?

 

[JonathanH]

One thing I never quite understand with this 'Northern should run three trains a day to London' idea, and seemingly the corresponding aversion to advance tickets on Avanti is that any ticket bought for the Northern service effectively becomes 'booked train only by default, as there is only one option at the time any prospective passenger is likely to travel.

 

[Bletchleyite]

OK. I'd guess that's related to Watford Junction having a more or less hourly service to Preston and Carlisle up until 14:31 (no 08:31) and then nothing else via Warrington except a 21:25 via Nuneaton (and the Lowlander)?

It is yes. Once fully implemented Watford, MKC and Rugby won't have any direct service to Scotland (except possibly at extremes of the day when the fast service sometimes calls).

One thing I never quite understand with this 'Northern should run three trains a day to London' idea, and seemingly the corresponding aversion to advance tickets on Avanti is that any ticket bought for the Northern service effectively becomes 'booked train only by default, as there is only one option at the time any prospective passenger is likely to travel.

To be fair I don't advocate that, rather I advocate an all day hourly (or two hourly if you split it with Liverpool) service by extending the LNR.

But a key difference is that even if there are only a couple of trains a day you can still purchase a good value ticket on the day. Cheap Avanti Advances need to be bought in advance, near or on the day of travel they either don't exist or are poor value. That for instance is why I've only ever done one Eurostar day trip - I'd do such a thing "off the cuff" if there was a good value fare available on the day even if it was train-specific and non-changeable, but if I get up on a Saturday morning thinking I fancy a trip to Paris or Brussels (or even decide on Friday evening) I'm not coughing up £400.

 

[JonathanH]

But a key difference is that even if there are only a couple of trains a day you can still purchase a good value ticket on the day. Cheap Avanti Advances need to be bought in advance.

That is true, but the 'good value' ticket price still needs to be demand led, so as to avoid the train being overcrowded. It is interesting as to how much the all day off peak fare can be reduced to not lead to overcrowding on the busiest services.

 

[A S Leib]

It is yes. Once fully implemented Watford, MKC and Rugby won't have any direct service to Scotland.

Presumably excluding one or two early-morning services?

Back on topic, if you're travelling between Doncaster and London on the day, Grand Central and Hull Trains both have off-peak day returns for below £90 without a railcard (vs £116 for two super off-peak singles). It's slightly annoying that they're not accepted on each other's services, but that's still eleven trains per day – three won't make enough of a difference.