22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[Class 33]

Not sure if this has got a mention on the national news. But a big protest in Bristol this afternoon and still continuing. Bridewell Police Station currently under siege, with missiles raining down. I can currently hear a police helicopter hovering over the city centre area.

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/live-updates-kill-bill-protesters-5209537

Oh I see it's making headline news on the national press/media now. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/kill-bill-clashes-riot-police-23768685 Looks pretty unpleasant down there.

I think there will be more of these protests up and down the country in the weeks and months to come. More so IF the all these restrictions continue beyond 21st June.

 

[DB]

The HIV pandemic is still ongoing over 40 years later...

Different type of virus - those who get it have it for life but are able to live fairly normally with treatment.

To be more speciific, every respiratory virus pandemic in history has ended and I don't believe any of them have lasted longer than about two years although they may become seasonal longer-term.

 

[mawallace]

The social distancing review is on 17th May. By then hospital numbers should be fairly low(less than 1,000 in hospitals surely) , and daily deaths should be no more than single digits. And millions more will be vaccinated. Absolutely no justification to keep this social distancing nonsense going any longer than 21st June at the very latest. But I expect if Whitty and Vallance are involved in that review meeting, they may well come up with some claptrap to say it should continue. If so, I hope Johnson tells them where to go.

The likes of nightclubs, theatres, cinemas, hostels, spas, coach holiday operators, etc, etc won't be able to survive financially if social distancing still drags on past June.

21st June, high time for the country to get back to normal. Good riddance to face mask wearing, social distancing, one way systems, black and yellow hazzard tapes all over the place, PA systems keep repeatedly saying to ensure face masks are worn and socially distance, etc. Good riddance to the lot of it!

Note quite what I meant - sorry!

Per the Roadmap:-

As soon as possible and by no later than Step 3, we will also update the advice on social distancing between friends and family, including hugging. But until this point, people should continue to keep their distance from anyone not in their household or support bubble.

So that aspect will be reviewed by 17 May - it just says "update the advice".

Later on it says:-

Finally, before Step 4 begins, the government will complete a review of social distancing and other long-term measures that have been put in place to cut transmission. This will inform decisions on the timing and circumstances under which the rules on 1 metre plus, the wearing of face coverings and other measures may be lifted. This will also inform guidance on working from home – which should continue wherever possible until this review is complete.

the point I was making is that the document says "may be lifted" - not "will be lifted". Personally I think they should be lifted, but this rooms Boris and his chums a lot of room for movement

 

[brad465]

Not sure if this has got a mention on the national news. But a big protest in Bristol this afternoon and still continuing. Bridewell Police Station currently under siege, with missiles raining down. I can currently hear a police helicopter hovering over the city centre area.

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/live-updates-kill-bill-protesters-5209537

Oh I see it's making headline news on the national press/media now. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/kill-bill-clashes-riot-police-23768685 Looks pretty unpleasant down there.

I think there will be more of these protests up and down the country in the weeks and months to come. More so IF the all these restrictions continue beyond 21st June.

Those protests I believe were more specific to the Police Bill, however at the very least it shows further dissent against restrictions by the very nature of something that's not permitted under current restrictions happening on a large scale. The London protest yesterday though was definitely anti-lockdown.

 

[cuccir]

I’m becoming convinced that this “cautious unlocking” timetable is actually causing more direct Covid deaths than a faster one would be. (I’ve long been convinced it’s causing more indirect deaths, as has been discussed at length).

It’s patently obvious that there is now no respect for restrictions anymore; and the few who are respecting them would voluntarily exclude themselves from shops, bars, restaurants, gatherings, etc anyway.

What’s safer: gathering in someone’s house (with the windows/curtains shut and staying out of the garden so you don’t get in trouble), or meeting in a well ventilated cafe or restaurant with a multitude of controls in place and a natural time limit?

What’s safer: allowing hotels to open with precautions, or forcing people to stay overnight at friends’ houses where they are unlikely to get caught?

What’s safer: unlocking at a speed in line with public sentiment, or being behind that so very large groups of people feel the need to protest the ongoing restrictions?

It’s easy to appeal to “caution” — and if it were just waiting a few more weeks, that’s fine by me, I’m patient — but I am not convinced it’s “cautious” at all. Even if your only concern is Covid.

Humans are social — lockdown tolerance is limited. Banning stuff doesn't change that, it just pushes people to less safe settings. It’s the same reason why abstinence-only sex education inevitably leads to worse outcomes. And as with abstinence, proponents of the “cautious” approach want to stick their head in the sand and pretend these gatherings aren’t happening, when in reality they’re widespread and happening daily.

I don't really buy it. Google Mobility data shows that up to the 16th March all forms of social interaction other than public parks were still down on their baseline measure. There hasn't been a great shift since mid-February - more mixing is there in the data (which it should be as the first stage of unlocking happened on the 9th March) - but compare the figures: there is still a 51% reduction in public transport, 41% reduction in workplaces and 49% reduction in retail mobility, with just a 15% increse in residential mobility. This data isn't a perfect measure but it's OK, and it would take a lot of mates staying at mates houses to over-ride those reductions. And while I agree that most people are probably not following every restriction but in a way that's not the point: if everyone follows just 40% of the restrictiosn, you reduce social interaction by 40% which significantly reduces spread of disease.

In terms of your assertion that those who are respecting the rules are those who'd otherwise exlcude themesles, I also don't see it. First, I'd include myself among those who'd be doing more if the rules allowed, but simply wouldn't enjoy my leisure activities till I know more confidently that they're legal. (Particularly as the majority of what I do for leisure will be possible after 29th March, so I'm not having to wait long: being a balding outdoor-runner who hates shopping is an advantage this year!), but I'm sure there are many others who feel similarly. Second, every social event requires multiple people. So if one person says 'no', the other person who is willing to get out and about now so still finds themselves unable to do so.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

I don't really buy it. Google Mobility data shows that up to the 16th March all forms of social interaction other than public parks were still down on their baseline measure. There hasn't been a great shift since mid-February - more mixing is there in the data (which it should be as the first stage of unlocking happened on the 9th March) - but compare the figures: there is still a 51% reduction in public transport, 41% reduction in workplaces and 49% reduction in retail mobility, with just a 15% increse in residential mobility. This data isn't a perfect measure but it's OK, and it would take a lot of mates staying at mates houses to over-ride those reductions. And while I agree that most people are probably not following every restriction but in a way that's not the point: if everyone follows just 40% of the restrictiosn, you reduce social interaction by 40% which significantly reduces spread of disease.

In terms of your assertion that those who are respecting the rules are those who'd otherwise exlcude themesles, I also don't see it. First, I'd include myself among those who'd be doing more if the rules allowed, but simply wouldn't enjoy my leisure activities till I know more confidently that they're legal. (Particularly as the majority of what I do for leisure will be possible after 29th March, so I'm not having to wait long: being a balding outdoor-runner who hates shopping is an advantage this year!), but I'm sure there are many others who feel similarly. Second, every social event requires multiple people. So if one person says 'no', the other person who is willing to get out and about now so still finds themselves unable to do so.

I've had a quick look at the mobility data, it doesn't actually explain how/what data is collected, other than if the user has location turned 'off' then they are not recorded.
Immediate question - what proportion of users have location turned off?

Other transport data, perhaps this, requires a user to:
a) move between mobile masts,
b) remain at their destination for 30 minutes.

On that basis I have not travelled at all for 12 months. My trips to the shop probably result in moving between masts but I don't stay in the shop for 30 minutes, my local walks definately involve moving between masts, but I don't stop at any point for 30 minutes. Just round in a circle from home. I have location turned off anyway!

It's data, it's limited but I suppose it's better than nothing.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Not sure if this has got a mention on the national news. But a big protest in Bristol this afternoon and still continuing. Bridewell Police Station currently under siege, with missiles raining down. I can currently hear a police helicopter hovering over the city centre area.

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/live-updates-kill-bill-protesters-5209537

Oh I see it's making headline news on the national press/media now. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/kill-bill-clashes-riot-police-23768685 Looks pretty unpleasant down there.

I think there will be more of these protests up and down the country in the weeks and months to come. More so IF the all these restrictions continue beyond 21st June.

The stuff in Bristol today has literally nothing to do with covid or lockdowns.

 

[yorkie]

The stuff in Bristol today has literally nothing to do with covid or lockdowns.

True; the anarchists involved have a very different agenda.

But it remains unclear what would happen if the Government continues the agenda of pushing through this bill and not releasing restrictions quickly enough; would it turn people against each other or create one huge problem for the police? I really don't know but I don't want to find out, either!

While the protestors on Saturday and Sunday may have rather different motives, I think the Government are playing a very dangerous game and I am very concerned about how things may develop over the coming days and weeks.

 

[Cdd89]

I don't really buy it. Google Mobility data shows that up to the 16th March all forms of social interaction other than public parks were still down on their baseline measure. There hasn't been a great shift since mid-February - more mixing is there in the data (which it should be as the first stage of unlocking happened on the 9th March) - but compare the figures: there is still a 51% reduction in public transport, 41% reduction in workplaces and 49% reduction in retail mobility, with just a 15% increse in residential mobility.

Interesting, I see Apple Mobility Data shows a significant weekly increase in driving in London from -50% to -20% over the lockdown; that’s based on routing request data so if someone knows where they’re going that activity may not be factored.

Either way my observed changes are not exactly subtle. As an example last month I could regularly get a seat on Thameslink trains in the off peak with space in all four directions; now there will likely be someone in every adjacent group of seats (albeit not directly adjacent), which isn’t that far off a regular off-peak service. Similarly numerous people have casually mentioned to me the people they’ve had round and the parties they’ve been to: it’s possible they’ve been doing that all the time and been quiet until now, but it certainly feels like an increase, and also means if I wanted to join in (which I don’t; I’m too much of an introvert!) I’d know exactly who to turn to!

every social event requires multiple people. So if one person says 'no', the other person who is willing to get out and about now so still finds themselves unable to do so.

This is a very accurate point, and is what drives compliance early in lockdowns. Breaking the rules is perceived as unacceptable and needed complicit friends or to do so quietly. But now lots of people have implicitly talked to me about their breaking the rules — people who a few months ago were very much of the “stay home” view — and clearly with no expectation that they would be shamed or judged for doing so. I know people who have arranged countless “play dates” for their children, and that’s with the complicity of other parents at school where the social penalties for “breaking the [accepted social] rules” could be quite harsh. That is logically very low risk but against the law all the same.

As for whether the rule breaking outbalances the mitigation, that’s impossible to know for sure, but I’m becoming convinced it could do. Just to start with, older houses are far less well ventilated than hospitality or commercial premises. Also there may not be a perfect relationship between frequency and risk.

 

[778]

There are quite a lot of people on twitter, that are happy with the idea of social distancing and masks forever (mostly hardcore remainers). I hope twitter isn't like real life.

If masks became permanent it would take the enjoyment out of train travel. I would proably not visit heritage railways anymore (apart form the one I volunteer at occasionally).

 

[yorkie]

There are quite a lot of people on twitter, that are happy with the idea of social distancing and masks forever (mostly hardcore remainers). I hope twitter isn't like real life.

It's a vocal minority. And no, it isn't!

If masks became permanent it would take the enjoyment out of train travel. I would proably not visit heritage railways anymore (apart form the one I volunteer at occasionally).

The general public won't consent to this; masks will be discarded this Summer no matter what.

Masks are a nightmare for people with hearing difficulties; the mask mandates are undeniably discriminatory.

The question is whether the supposed benefits of mask mandates (which will always be open for debate) outweigh the burden of the discrimination; when case rates are low and vaccination rates are high, it's not a tenable argument in my opinion.

But the pro-restrictions lobbyists will be reluctant to let masks go: masks are highly symbolic of the oppressive regime we live under and they won't want to give that up easily. The sort of people who want to mandate masks don't seem to care about disabled people, nor the environmental impact.

 

[NorthOxonian]

There are quite a lot of people on twitter, that are happy with the idea of social distancing and masks forever (mostly hardcore remainers). I hope twitter isn't like real life.

If masks became permanent it would take the enjoyment out of train travel. I would proably not visit heritage railways anymore (apart form the one I volunteer at occasionally).

Do these people not realise social distancing forever means the extinction of the human race? And realistically, you can't have a normal social life with distancing in force, so it means a permanently lonely population forever? Have they any sense of perspective whatsoever?

Fortunately as yorkie points out they are a small minority. Having done a few walks around different parts of Newcastle and Gateshead - it's clear most people are taking a liberal interpretation of the rules, and are resorting to common sense. That's especially so in the many Tyneside neighbourhoods which are predominantly working class. The twitter users probably don't realise this though - I expect the majority of them live in large houses in middle class suburbs!

I do worry though - surveys have consistently shown a minority of people have extremely warped views. There was a survey a few weeks back which suggested 10% of people weren't looking forward to the end of masks. How do we bring people like that around, and get them over their intense fear of normality?

 

[778]

Do these people not realise social distancing forever means the extinction of the human race? And realistically, you can't have a normal social life with distancing in force, so it means a permanently lonely population forever? Have they any sense of perspective whatsoever?

Fortunately as yorkie points out they are a small minority. Having done a few walks around different parts of Newcastle and Gateshead - it's clear most people are taking a liberal interpretation of the rules, and are resorting to common sense. That's especially so in the many Tyneside neighbourhoods which are predominantly working class. The twitter users probably don't realise this though - I expect the majority of them live in large houses in middle class suburbs!

I do worry though - surveys have consistently shown a minority of people have extremely warped views. There was a survey a few weeks back which suggested 10% of people weren't looking forward to the end of masks. How do we bring people like that around, and get them over their intense fear of normality?

I would hope that when cases get really low, compliance will start to drop.

At least it looks like masks will not be made mandatory outdoors. In other countries, it is compulsory to wear a mask everytime you leave the front door of your house, so I think we have dodged a bullet there.

 

[Bikeman78]

There seems to be this view among many that Covid-19 is somehow a unique virus that will keep on mutating every few months to completely evade immunity and result in a pandemic that never ends. There never has been a pandemic that has never ended so why would Covid-19 be any different.

This is a question that I've asked many times. No one seems to have an answer. I'm confident that it won't be any different.

 

[DustyBin]

The stuff in Bristol today has literally nothing to do with covid or lockdowns.

True, but the riots of 2011 had nothing to do with the shooting of an alleged gangster, outside of London anyway. I think the last twelve months has led to a dangerous situation which could easily boil over.

True; the anarchists involved have a very different agenda.

But it remains unclear what would happen if the Government continues the agenda of pushing through this bill and not releasing restrictions quickly enough; would it turn people against each other or create one huge problem for the police? I really don't know but I don't want to find out, either!

While the protestors on Saturday and Sunday may have rather different motives, I think the Government are playing a very dangerous game and I am very concerned about how things may develop over the coming days and weeks.

Agreed.

 

[Eyersey468]

Do these people not realise social distancing forever means the extinction of the human race? And realistically, you can't have a normal social life with distancing in force, so it means a permanently lonely population forever? Have they any sense of perspective whatsoever?

Fortunately as yorkie points out they are a small minority. Having done a few walks around different parts of Newcastle and Gateshead - it's clear most people are taking a liberal interpretation of the rules, and are resorting to common sense. That's especially so in the many Tyneside neighbourhoods which are predominantly working class. The twitter users probably don't realise this though - I expect the majority of them live in large houses in middle class suburbs!

I do worry though - surveys have consistently shown a minority of people have extremely warped views. There was a survey a few weeks back which suggested 10% of people weren't looking forward to the end of masks. How do we bring people like that around, and get them over their intense fear of normality?

I think some of the reason for this is the government and media's messaging over the last 12 months, they have tried to scare people into compliance. It has been disgusting.

 

[nedchester]

It's a vocal minority. And no, it isn't!


The general public won't consent to this; masks will be discarded this Summer no matter what.

Masks are a nightmare for people with hearing difficulties; the mask mandates are undeniably discriminatory.

The question is whether the supposed benefits of mask mandates (which will always be open for debate) outweigh the burden of the discrimination; when case rates are low and vaccination rates are high, it's not a tenable argument in my opinion.

But the pro-restrictions lobbyists will be reluctant to let masks go: masks are highly symbolic of the oppressive regime we live under and they won't want to give that up easily. The sort of people who want to mandate masks don't seem to care about disabled people, nor the environmental impact.

As I have said before masks may have helped matters during times of high infection but by June with 50% of the adult population having received both doses of vaccine (I had my first one on Saturday) then there really is no longer any need for social distancing or masks.

I might even declare myself “exempt” by virtue of the fact I’ve had both vaccine doses!

My big concern is the drip drip approach of various measures to acclimatise the public to certain restrictions.

 

[westv]

I want to be able to say goodbye to the half a face, non smiling population as soon as possible.

 

[Jamesrob637]

This overlaps a couple of threads but I can see the message changing to

Stay alert, control the virus, save lives

with effect from next week for possibly the rest of the year.

 

[DB]

The stuff in Bristol today has literally nothing to do with covid or lockdowns.

It really does - the flashpoint may have been something else, but it's the oppressive conditions of the past year which have created a situation where it wasn't going to take much to trigger trouble.

 

[bengley]

It really does - the flashpoint may have been something else, but it's the oppressive conditions of the past year which have created a situation where it wasn't going to take much to trigger trouble.

Indeed, I don't expect anything like this would have happened if we were still living in Pre-COVID times.

Although I don't condone the actions of these people, to tar them all as troublemakers and not genuine protestors is plain wrong. There will be a lot of very angry people at these protests and in fairness, the actions of the Bristol protestors last night has certainly sparked a lot of mainstream media attention.

 

[nlogax]

Indeed, I don't expect anything like this would have happened if we were still living in Pre-COVID times.

I'd suggest various parts of London during the summer of 2011 may beg to differ.

 

[bengley]

I'd suggest various parts of London during the summer of 2011 may beg to differ.

That was ten years ago...

 

[nlogax]

That was ten years ago...

And?

 

[WelshBluebird]

Although I don't condone the actions of these people, to tar them all as troublemakers and not genuine protestors is plain wrong. There will be a lot of very angry people at these protests and in fairness, the actions of the Bristol protestors last night has certainly sparked a lot of mainstream media attention.

It's also worth noting the vast vast majority of people who attended the protest had left by the time it turned violent. There were a lot more people in attendance earlier on and there was no trouble then. Of course, the peaceful nature of most of the protesters and the legitimate criticism of the bill will now just get lost amongst the headlines.
As I side note I do wonder if given the nature of the protest, maybe something like this could have been foreseen. From the pictures it looks like the police were taken totally by surprise and it took bringing in units / officers from elsewhere to actually be able to deal with it all.

 

[bengley]

And?

It take a lot to trigger people to protest violently in this country. And to be honest, the 2011 protests/riots didn't seem to have a particularly good cause when you consider the reasons and evidence pointing towards Duggan being a violent criminal.

This time the reasons are very different.

 

[nlogax]

This time the reasons are very different.

With respect I disagree.

 

[bengley]

With respect I disagree.

So you think that a violent criminal being shot dead by police is no different to the government attempting to essentially outlaw protest? Hmm...

 

[nlogax]

So you think that a violent criminal being shot dead by police is no different to the government attempting to essentially outlaw protest? Hmm...

Nice of you to put words in my mouth. Classy, even.

 

[kristiang85]

It take a lot to trigger people to protest violently in this country. And to be honest, the 2011 protests/riots didn't seem to have a particularly good cause when you consider the reasons and evidence pointing towards Duggan being a violent criminal.

This time the reasons are very different.

I think in 2011 people were very weary of austerity and economic challenges (which had at that point been at its deepest phase for 3-4 years), so the Mark Duggan incident was just something that triggered it.

This time is similar in that a large proportion of the population are affected by both lockdown life and the economic realities - maybe the vigil in London last weekend was the catalyst for anger to come out now.

It is economics that sparks most national protests, as more people are affected directly themselves. Which is what we are seeing now.

The Iraq war protest was huge, but people saw it as a cause to follow rather than something that deeply angered them as they were not directly affected, so it was peaceful. Same with the pro-remain rallies - they remained peaceful as the people involved were still economically OK.

But now is very different, I fear. If nothing changes then we are going to see a lot of unrest in the coming weeks.