22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[Cdd89]

While I agree the Bristol protests may not be directly lockdown related, I think they will make the government very wary indeed about delaying the roadmap (if they are at any point considering it). It’s patently obvious this sort of flare up would just be the tip of the iceberg. Absent a genuine sea change I think it’s actually inconceivable now.

 

[bengley]

Nice of you to put words in my mouth. Classy, even.

If you don't want people to make assumptions about what you mean then you need to clarify rather than just saying 'Respectfully, I disagree'

 

[nlogax]

If you don't want people to make assumptions about what you mean then you need to clarify rather than just saying 'Respectfully, I disagree'

Be aware that your assumptions are entirely incorrect.

Returning to the topic, if I see any sort of link between what happened in Bristol, it's forward-looking in that 'Kill the Bill' (a terrible choice of phrasing tbh) could threaten to become the natural successor to what lockdown has enabled over the last twelve months.

 

[DB]

Be aware that your assumptions are entirely incorrect.

So why don't you tell us what you mean, then?

To me it does indeed seem similar to 2011 - there are a lot of disillusioned people, and what sparks unrest may superficially appear unrelated but clearly only causes the unrest because of underlying anger in society.

 

[nlogax]

To me it does indeed seem similar to 2011 - there are a lot of disillusioned people, and what sparks unrest may superficially appear unrelated but clearly only causes the unrest because of underlying anger in society.

This is partially what I mean.

There are people in various parts of the country who for whatever reason - social inequality, deprivation - are spoiling for a fight, a riot, an excuse to lash out at authorities. Any excuse at all will suffice. Like parts of London and other cities up and down the country, Bristol has a long term history of rioting once a decade or so.

 

[DustyBin]

This is partially what I mean.

There are people in various parts of the country who for whatever reason - social inequality, deprivation - are spoiling for a fight, a riot, an excuse to lash out at authorities. Any excuse at all will suffice. Like parts of London and other cities up and down the country, Bristol has a long term history of rioting once a decade or so.

I think we're of a similar mind here. The way I see it what happened in Bristol was the result of the usual hardcore "rent-a-mob" hijacking a legitimate peaceful protest. Did they feel empowered and/or encouraged by the general anti-police sentiment we've seen over the last few months (and particularly over the last week)? Almost certainly. Are covid restrictions the main reason they chose to kick off? In my opinion no; they're inclined to behave this way if they think they can get away with it. The link is that the peaceful protest provided a setting and an opportunity for them to start a riot; the majority of people at the protest weren't rioters. The danger is that there are plenty of people out there who have no affiliation with these groups but are fed up with what is happening as a result of covid and may join them next time for their own reasons. As you've pointed out, there are various reasons people are spoiling for a fight and they've existed for decades, however I strongly suspect that anger towards covid restrictions, and the cost of these restrictions, has swollen their ranks significantly.

Apologies for the slightly rambling post, I'm trying to get my thoughts across but it's a complex subject!

 

[philosopher]

While I agree the Bristol protests may not be directly lockdown related, I think they will make the government very wary indeed about delaying the roadmap (if they are at any point considering it). It’s patently obvious this sort of flare up would just be the tip of the iceberg. Absent a genuine sea change I think it’s actually inconceivable now.

Another thing is shear boredom. At the moment there is very little leisure activity that is permitted outside so some of the people may be attending the protests as it gives them something to relieve their boredom.

It may be why the Black Lives Matter protests last June got so big in the UK, there was very little else to do.

 

[nlogax]

Apologies for the slightly rambling post, I'm trying to get my thoughts across but it's a complex subject!

No apologies needed.. it's a complex issue and isn't as binary as some would like to make out. What's definitely emerging from the Bristol incident is that there were some rent-a-mob sorts who came from outside the city. I'm personally doubtful that lockdowns have specifically motivated that portion over their general desire to start a fight wherever that may be - but let's see what comes out from the police's handling of this.

 

[roversfan2001]

Another thing is shear boredom. At the moment there is very little leisure activity that is permitted outside so some of the people may be attending the protests as it gives them something to relieve their boredom.

It may be why the Black Lives Matter protests last June got so big in the UK, there was very little else to do.

This is my view on it also. Yet another negative impact of lockdown that could have been spotted a mile off.

 

[STINT47]

The PM is now saying the third wave will wash up on our shores. Is this another example of project fear and softening us up for delays on easing restrictions?

Coronavirus: Third wave will 'wash up on our shores', warns Johnson

Boris Johnson says the UK will "feel effects" of growing case numbers in Europe amid a row over vaccines.

www.bbc.co.uk

Boris Johnson has warned the effects of a third wave of coronavirus will "wash up on our shores" from Europe.
The PM said the UK should be "under no illusion" we will "feel effects" of growing cases on the continent.
His comments come amid a row over Covid vaccine supplies, after the president of the European Commission warning the EU could "forbid" doses made in the bloc from being exported to the UK.

 

[Bantamzen]

The PM is now saying the third wave will wash up on our shores. Is this another example of project fear and softening us up for delays on easing restrictions?

Ihttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56486067

I have a sneaky feeling this is going to be aimed firmly at the travel industry. BoJo & Co seem keen for a British staycation (I hate that term) to give the impression of doing something for the economy. In reality any extended border closure will mean spiralling costs, with the poorer in society left kicking up their heels in their back gardens (if they have any) whilst the better off get their jollies.

 

[Tezza1978]

The PM is now saying the third wave will wash up on our shores. Is this another example of project fear and softening us up for delays on easing restrictions?

Ihttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56486067

Its a bit of project fear and also softening people up for restrictions of overseas travel, as well as pushing back on the backbenchers who are demanding a quicker lockdown exit.
Fairly irresponsible though. I cant see how with testing, current lockdown restrictions and 51% of the population already vaccinated that it would be in any way possible for us to suddenly have a 3rd wave.
Can't see it affecting the domestic roadmap. Johnson would be crucified and removed from office by the 1922 committee if restrictions stayed while hospitalisations and deaths continued to fall

 

[kristiang85]

I have a sneaky feeling this is going to be aimed firmly at the travel industry. BoJo & Co seem keen for a British staycation (I hate that term) to give the impression of doing something for the economy. In reality any extended border closure will mean spiralling costs, with the poorer in society left kicking up their heels in their back gardens (if they have any) whilst the better off get their jollies.

Yes that is what I can see - getting people to accept that it will be illegal to travel for a while longer, and making sure all the savings people have accrued are spent in the UK (ergo, keeping the money in the UK tax system to help pay this mess off).

The problem is, when I look at all the people I know who have lost jobs this year, most of them work directly or indirectly in the travel sector. It's going to be a big hit.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The PM is now saying the third wave will wash up on our shores. Is this another example of project fear and softening us up for delays on easing restrictions?

Coronavirus: Third wave will 'wash up on our shores', warns Johnson

Boris Johnson says the UK will "feel effects" of growing case numbers in Europe amid a row over vaccines.

www.bbc.co.uk

How no ones allowed to travel to Europe except under strict controls so he clearly isn't very confident of Border Control efforts to manage the few they let in everyday.

 

[DB]

The PM is now saying the third wave will wash up on our shores. Is this another example of project fear and softening us up for delays on easing restrictions?

Coronavirus: Third wave will 'wash up on our shores', warns Johnson

Boris Johnson says the UK will "feel effects" of growing case numbers in Europe amid a row over vaccines.

www.bbc.co.uk

How can you have a 'third wave' when a large part of the population (including most of those at risk) have been vaccinated, and the time of year is such that respiratory viruses will be in decline anyway?

Pure scaremongering.

 

[Hawkwood Junc]

More gloom to make sure people don't relax etc I imagine.

Create some more feelings of doom and gloom because they've realised that there's actually quite a long time between the easing phases and people are likely to get restless with longer days and nicer weather making an appearance.

 

[Bikeman78]

How no ones allowed to travel to Europe except under strict controls so he clearly isn't very confident of Border Control efforts to manage the few they let in everyday.

There was an item recently about six hour queues at Heathrow to go through border control. That's clearly unsustainable, given the low number of people travelling at the moment.

Going off at a tengent, this made me laugh. Link shows two pictures, one of people queueing at the terminal, then crowded onto the plane.

Airport queueing to the gate social distancing then 30 minutes later people crowded on the airplane

Funny lolcontent from StareCat.com - CLICK TO SEE!

starecat.com

If nothing else it demonstrates that Aviation and the current restrictions are incompatible. As soon as the number of passengers goes up, it will be the usual crowds at security and border control, especially if the latter takes longer than before.

 

[RailExplorer]

I was in a mess room earlier today at work, and just casually mentioned I’d spent the weekend 200+ miles away at my parents. There were 7 of us in the room, and it was delightful to hear that 3 others had also spend the weekend 200+ miles away with family.

I am now at a mainline London terminal and it’s pretty busy with people going about life - plenty of whom have suitcases. Whilst at my parents, my mum told me how the neighbour had held a big birthday party for their child. These neighbours listened to every word of the lockdown rules last year.

It is clear that lockdown rules are no longer being listened to, and rightly so.

 

[DannyMich2018]

I was in a mess room earlier today at work, and just casually mentioned I’d spent the weekend 200+ miles away at my parents. There were 7 of us in the room, and it was delightful to hear that 3 others had also spend the weekend 200+ miles away with family.

I am now at a mainline London terminal and it’s pretty busy with people going about life - plenty of whom have suitcases. Whilst at my parents, my mum told me how the neighbour had held a big birthday party for their child. These neighbours listened to every word of the lockdown rules last year.

It is clear that lockdown rules are no longer being listened to, and rightly so.

Exactly. I couldn't agree more! I bubble with my partner who doesn't live with me but I still visit mum on the next street too at least twice a week and even take the partner there for Sunday lunch (both are vaccinated). People are fed up of these restrictions and dont care now. Why should people not see there friends and family now-particularly elderly (vaccinated) relatives who have little time left?! with so many vaccinated and the death rate lowest now for many months! Many of my neighbours are fed up too about the restrictions.

 

[Class 33]

How can you have a 'third wave' when a large part of the population (including most of those at risk) have been vaccinated, and the time of year is such that respiratory viruses will be in decline anyway?

Pure scaremongering.

Indeed. What an earth is he going on about this for??!! He should know that even if there is a large rise in infections, this will now not lead to a large rise in hospital admissions and deaths! Wasn't he one of the ones that said the link between cases leading to hospital admissions and deaths has now been broken?!

Only 17 deaths today. Weekend figure I know. But in a month's time it will be this sort of figures on weekdays! Deaths are continueing to absolutely tumble week on week on week!

 

[YorkshireBear]

I was in a mess room earlier today at work, and just casually mentioned I’d spent the weekend 200+ miles away at my parents. There were 7 of us in the room, and it was delightful to hear that 3 others had also spend the weekend 200+ miles away with family.

I am now at a mainline London terminal and it’s pretty busy with people going about life - plenty of whom have suitcases. Whilst at my parents, my mum told me how the neighbour had held a big birthday party for their child. These neighbours listened to every word of the lockdown rules last year.

It is clear that lockdown rules are no longer being listened to, and rightly so.

What is reassuring is despite this and schools going back cases aren't going up. And while cases going up at this stage might not mean an increase in hospitalisations due to vaccine if cases aren't going up that should see hospital rates and deaths continue to nosedive.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

More gloom to make sure people don't relax etc I imagine.

Create some more feelings of doom and gloom because they've realised that there's actually quite a long time between the easing phases and people are likely to get restless with longer days and nicer weather making an appearance.

Thats part of the strategy to keep the pressure on managing peoples behaviour so there is maximum decline in case numbers although conveniently they never said exactly what data thresholds they were looking for at each step but there's no way next step won't happen all metrics are currently outperforming SPI-M forecasts. By my analysis around 86% of English areas are now under a 7 day average of less than 100cases/100k but there are a few hotspots in the North Midlands and North West which haven't yet stabilised although all below 200 cases/100k. Way off the 1500cases/100k that we saw in January.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Indeed. What an earth is he going on about this for??!! He should know that even if there is a large rise in infections, this will now not lead to a large rise in hospital admissions and deaths! Wasn't he one of the ones that said the link between cases leading to hospital admissions and deaths has now been broken?!

Only 17 deaths today. Weekend figure I know. But in a month's time it will be this sort of figures on weekdays! Deaths are continueing to absolutely tumble week on week on week!

After the first spike, the first day that less than 10 deaths were reported not on a Sunday or Monday was the 18th of July, a Saturday, when 9 deaths were reported. We then had to wait until the following Thursday 23rd of July to see an equivalent figure. The seven-day rolling averages for these days were 21 and 15 respectively.

 

[brad465]

Indeed. What an earth is he going on about this for??!! He should know that even if there is a large rise in infections, this will now not lead to a large rise in hospital admissions and deaths! Wasn't he one of the ones that said the link between cases leading to hospital admissions and deaths has now been broken?!

Only 17 deaths today. Weekend figure I know. But in a month's time it will be this sort of figures on weekdays! Deaths are continueing to absolutely tumble week on week on week!

Yes I can see several questions being asked in a few weeks time at the latest, and this value will give traction to anyone against renewing the legislation this week.

 

[Richard Scott]

How can you have a 'third wave' when a large part of the population (including most of those at risk) have been vaccinated, and the time of year is such that respiratory viruses will be in decline anyway?

Pure scaremongering.

Exactly, and so what if it did? The vulnerable are now vaccinated so won't be a big deal. Total obsession with this virus and seems very little with actual reality.

 

[packermac]

After the first spike, the first day that less than 10 deaths were reported not on a Sunday or Monday was the 18th of July, a Saturday, when 9 deaths were reported. We then had to wait until the following Thursday 23rd of July to see an equivalent figure. The seven-day rolling averages for these days were 21 and 15 respectively.

I do not know what data source you are using but the JHU figures that I have recorded on a spread sheet since March last year say that 18 July was 40 and 23 July 55 deaths.

 

[david1212]

The PM is now saying the third wave will wash up on our shores. Is this another example of project fear and softening us up for delays on easing restrictions?

Coronavirus: Third wave will 'wash up on our shores', warns Johnson

Boris Johnson says the UK will "feel effects" of growing case numbers in Europe amid a row over vaccines.

www.bbc.co.uk

I have a sneaky feeling this is going to be aimed firmly at the travel industry. BoJo & Co seem keen for a British staycation (I hate that term) to give the impression of doing something for the economy. In reality any extended border closure will mean spiralling costs, with the poorer in society left kicking up their heels in their back gardens (if they have any) whilst the better off get their jollies.

There are two sides to this. One as stated is a boost for UK tourism, I'm presuming no restrictions for UK cross-border travel, significant differences for accommodation and attractions etc. This is needed to minimise unemployment and the number of business that close the doors permanently. However as in earlier posts the main tourist areas could be overwhelmed. The other side is the airlines and Eurostar. The latter more difficult as serving the big cities rather than resorts where Covid case levels may well be higher. On balance better if some short haul destinations are permitted without the continual short notice changes like last year.

 

[P Binnersley]

The PM is now saying the third wave will wash up on our shores. Is this another example of project fear and softening us up for delays on easing restrictions?

Coronavirus: Third wave will 'wash up on our shores', warns Johnson

Boris Johnson says the UK will "feel effects" of growing case numbers in Europe amid a row over vaccines.

www.bbc.co.uk

Remember that the PM has a little shindig in Cornwall planned for June. That needs the May easing to go ahead otherwise the venue will be closed. Modifying the regulation so they are an exception would go down as well as Dominick Cumming's eye test.

 

[bramling]

There are two sides to this. One as stated is a boost for UK tourism, I'm presuming no restrictions for UK cross-border travel, significant differences for accommodation and attractions etc. This is needed to minimise unemployment and the number of business that close the doors permanently. However as in earlier posts the main tourist areas could be overwhelmed. The other side is the airlines and Eurostar. The latter more difficult as serving the big cities rather than resorts where Covid case levels may well be higher. On balance better if some short haul destinations are permitted without the continual short notice changes like last year.

Yes I’m not sure places like Cornwall being swamped is a recipe for success, especially if there are still measures like quotas on admissions to attractions and the like.

We have Llandrindod Wells booked for June (deferred from May as a precaution). I wouldn’t necessarily expect that to be bursting, however I dread to think what a more honeypot-type place would be like. We have Tynemouth booked for July, that could be interesting. Fortunately our activities tend not to be mainstream!

To be honest I think they should just allow people to go to some of the more popular destinations like Spain or Cyprus.

 

[brad465]

According to the ONS release today, registered deaths are no longer in excess, despite there still being 1,501 deaths attributed to Covid in the week in question:

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, by age, sex and region.

www.ons.gov.uk