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Do you think that the UK switching to electric vehicles is realistic?

JamesT

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But tbh I haven't grasped why, with the competitive European power market, the UK is the target landing point of the Morocco scheme and not any of the 3 other European countries it passes along the way. (Maybe go the whole hog and route via the Channel Islands for their energy security :lol:).
Xlinks (the company behind the scheme) are UK. Presumably they reckon they will get a better price from the UK market than just linking into the nearest section of Europe?
It probably also matters how well supplied those countries are near the route of the cable. We see within the UK an abundance of wind in Northern Scotland isn’t necessarily useful as there isn’t the grid capacity to distribute it to the rest of the UK. I would expect there may be similar constraints in other countries.
 
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stuu

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Going back to the original question of what's realistic - surely the only "realistic" approach (ie facing up to reality) is rapidly winding down the use of private cars of any sort.
What would you propose for people who don't live in urban areas? Vast swathes of the country rely on cars and there is no realistic alternative that has any chance of popular support. By all means most journeys in urban areas should be on foot, bike, public transport (or not at all), but that just isn't realistic everywhere
 

Bletchleyite

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What would you propose for people who don't live in urban areas? Vast swathes of the country rely on cars and there is no realistic alternative that has any chance of popular support. By all means most journeys in urban areas should be on foot, bike, public transport (or not at all), but that just isn't realistic everywhere

This is why my proposal for taxation of vehicles would move all of it to use and parking (including at home, including on private driveways) of cars in urban areas.

Private EVs are the right answer for rural areas, but those taxations would encourage the use of park and ride and similar schemes, or just parking up and getting your bicycle out of the boot.
 

The Ham

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for the avoidance of doubt, rail usage is only at 90% (or above) at weekends. In the week it is c80%. Yesterday was well under 80%.

According to here:
https://assets.publishing.service.g...1088196/COVID-19-transport-use-statistics.ods

01/05/2022 (Sat)78%
02/05/202282%
03/05/2022 (Mon)80%
04/05/202281%
05/05/202281%
06/05/202282%
07/05/2022 (Sat)81%
08/05/202280%
09/05/2022 (Mon)77%
10/05/202281%
11/05/202282%
12/05/202283%
13/05/202283%
14/05/202284%
15/05/202284%
16/05/2022 (Mon)86%
17/05/202287%
18/05/202289%
19/05/202290%
20/05/202291%
21/05/202291%
22/05/202292%
23/05/2022 (Mon)92%
24/05/202289%
25/05/202287%
26/05/202287%
27/05/202286%
28/05/202285%
29/05/202283%
30/05/2022 (Mon)79%
31/05/202280%
01/06/202282%
02/06/2022 (BH)80%
03/06/2022 (BH)78%
04/06/202277%
05/06/202279%
06/06/2022 (Mon)84%
07/06/202287%
08/06/202287%
09/06/202289%
10/06/202292%
11/06/202293%
12/06/202292%
13/06/2022 (Mon)92%
14/06/202293%
15/06/202292%
16/06/202292%
17/06/202293%
18/06/202293%
19/06/202292%
20/06/2022 (Mon)90%
21/06/2022 (Strike)78%
22/06/202272%
23/06/2022 (Strike)62%
24/06/202257%
25/06/2022 (Strike)49%
26/06/202248%
27/06/2022 (Mon)44%
28/06/202253%
29/06/202256%
30/06/202264%
01/07/202268%
02/07/202275%
03/07/202278%
04/07/2022 (Mon)83%
 

Bald Rick

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According to here:
https://assets.publishing.service.g...1088196/COVID-19-transport-use-statistics.ods

01/05/2022 (Sat)78%
02/05/202282%
03/05/2022 (Mon)80%
04/05/202281%
05/05/202281%
06/05/202282%
07/05/2022 (Sat)81%
08/05/202280%
09/05/2022 (Mon)77%
10/05/202281%
11/05/202282%
12/05/202283%
13/05/202283%
14/05/202284%
15/05/202284%
16/05/2022 (Mon)86%
17/05/202287%
18/05/202289%
19/05/202290%
20/05/202291%
21/05/202291%
22/05/202292%
23/05/2022 (Mon)92%
24/05/202289%
25/05/202287%
26/05/202287%
27/05/202286%
28/05/202285%
29/05/202283%
30/05/2022 (Mon)79%
31/05/202280%
01/06/202282%
02/06/2022 (BH)80%
03/06/2022 (BH)78%
04/06/202277%
05/06/202279%
06/06/2022 (Mon)84%
07/06/202287%
08/06/202287%
09/06/202289%
10/06/202292%
11/06/202293%
12/06/202292%
13/06/2022 (Mon)92%
14/06/202293%
15/06/202292%
16/06/202292%
17/06/202293%
18/06/202293%
19/06/202292%
20/06/2022 (Mon)90%
21/06/2022 (Strike)78%
22/06/202272%
23/06/2022 (Strike)62%
24/06/202257%
25/06/2022 (Strike)49%
26/06/202248%
27/06/2022 (Mon)44%
28/06/202253%
29/06/202256%
30/06/202264%
01/07/202268%
02/07/202275%
03/07/202278%
04/07/2022 (Mon)83%

theres a saying about statistics that I can’t quite remember…

But tbh I haven't grasped why, with the competitive European power market, the UK is the target landing point of the Morocco scheme and not any of the 3 other European countries it passes along the way. (Maybe go the whole hog and route via the Channel Islands for their energy security :lol:).

that was my initial query about the project.

I think it is because there isn’t grid capacity through Spain or France to supply us with the 3-4GW continuous that this would. And even if there was, it would then be subject to the usual fluctuations in price between the U.K. and France (the current whole sale price of electricity in France and Northern Europe is nearly twice what it is here).

My second query was where it has the grid connection in Devon. That’s not far from Hinckley Point, which means there will be 7GW of power needing to be fed from that part of the world to the power demand elsewhere in the country.
 
Last edited:

The Ham

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theres a saying about statistics that I can’t quite remember…

Whilst that's true, the data I've provided is what is publicly available and add that's all I have access to it's what I've referred to.

Now given the narrative over the strikes (including citing falls of greater than 20% by some) it would appear odd for government based data to over estimate the numbers if it was something that was being done deliberately.

The page the link to the dataset previously linked to is this one:
 

paul1609

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I think it is because there isn’t grid capacity through Spain or France to supply us with the 3-4GW continuous that this would. And even if there was, it would then be subject to the usual fluctuations in price between the U.K. and France (the current whole sale price of electricity in France and Northern Europe is nearly twice what it is here).

My second query was where it has the grid connection in Devon. That’s not far from Hinckley Point, which means there will be 7GW of power needing to be fed from that part of the world to the power demand elsewhere in the country.

2nd Query, makes sense to me Morocco Interconnector is 1.8 GW, Hinckley 3.2 GW, South Devon coast supergrid is well under capacity and is duplicated via Hinckley and Fawley to London & SE and Midlands
 

Bald Rick

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2nd Query, makes sense to me Morocco Interconnector is 1.8 GW, Hinckley 3.2 GW, South Devon coast supergrid is well under capacity and is duplicated via Hinckley and Fawley to London & SE and Midlands

2 x 1.8GW, but fair enough.
 

ChrisC

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What would you propose for people who don't live in urban areas? Vast swathes of the country rely on cars and there is no realistic alternative that has any chance of popular support. By all means most journeys in urban areas should be on foot, bike, public transport (or not at all), but that just isn't realistic everywhere
It’s not easy to manage without a car in a rural area, even somewhere not completely isolated that does have a limited bus service. I’ve tried to use my car far less during these last few years and I have reduced my annual mileage quite a bit. With only an hourly bus service and no evening or Sunday buses I’ve still had to use my car quite a lot. Sadly my car use will be rising again soon as it’s just been announced that the bus service is being completely withdrawn from the beginning of September. My current petrol car is only a year old and I won’t be changing it any time soon but perhaps in about 5 years time I may consider an electric car.

In urban areas, especially London, when a bus service is withdrawn, it may be inconvenient, but it’s not usually too far to walk to an alternative bus route. I will now have well over a mile to walk to an alternative bus stop but it is not walk that is safe to do. You can’t walk along a busy winding road with no pavement, with steep verges which cannot even be climbed on to get out of the path of fast traffic. It’s even worse after dark with no street lights and completely pitch black where the road runs through wooded areas.
 

Bletchleyite

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It’s even worse after dark with no street lights and completely pitch black where the road runs through wooded areas.

Not to detract from your totally valid point, but I prefer walking on the road at night as you can see headlights approach and aren't surprised by a car rounding the next corner.

We just need to accept that there is a role for the (electric) car. That role just isn't in major built up areas.
 

The Ham

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It’s not easy to manage without a car in a rural area, even somewhere not completely isolated that does have a limited bus service. I’ve tried to use my car far less during these last few years and I have reduced my annual mileage quite a bit. With only an hourly bus service and no evening or Sunday buses I’ve still had to use my car quite a lot. Sadly my car use will be rising again soon as it’s just been announced that the bus service is being completely withdrawn from the beginning of September. My current petrol car is only a year old and I won’t be changing it any time soon but perhaps in about 5 years time I may consider an electric car.

In urban areas, especially London, when a bus service is withdrawn, it may be inconvenient, but it’s not usually too far to walk to an alternative bus route. I will now have well over a mile to walk to an alternative bus stop but it is not walk that is safe to do. You can’t walk along a busy winding road with no pavement, with steep verges which cannot even be climbed on to get out of the path of fast traffic. It’s even worse after dark with no street lights and completely pitch black where the road runs through wooded areas.

Whilst this is true it's only really the case for quite a small amount of the population, in that 15% of the population lives in a location where it's got a population of less than 10,000 people.

However as you get above about 5,000 (and certainly closer to the upper limit) your description becomes less and less the case.

I live somewhere with a population in 2021 of just shy of 8,000 and there's off road cycle routes, a train station, a second supermarket being built, 2 dentists, an optician, paths alongside roads to two of the 4 nearest settlements (one of the others the road is quiet, so the likelihood of 2 cars passing at the same time as you is remote and the other has public rights of way which can be used to access it), a travel agent, a few takeaways, 5 pubs, a hotel with a gym and pool (which hosts children's swimming lessons), etc.

As such it's much easier to do without a car (although I'd still argue that too many have multiple cars in their household).
 

43301

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Whilst this is true it's only really the case for quite a small amount of the population, in that 15% of the population lives in a location where it's got a population of less than 10,000 people.

However as you get above about 5,000 (and certainly closer to the upper limit) your description becomes less and less the case.

I live somewhere with a population in 2021 of just shy of 8,000 and there's off road cycle routes, a train station, a second supermarket being built, 2 dentists, an optician, paths alongside roads to two of the 4 nearest settlements (one of the others the road is quiet, so the likelihood of 2 cars passing at the same time as you is remote and the other has public rights of way which can be used to access it), a travel agent, a few takeaways, 5 pubs, a hotel with a gym and pool (which hosts children's swimming lessons), etc.

As such it's much easier to do without a car (although I'd still argue that too many have multiple cars in their household).

You also need to consider the transport links. I live in a fairly small down of about 15,000 people. It has good rail services to the two cities in one direction, but to the nearest large town in another direction there is nothing - no railway, and no buses. It's only about 20 miles, but the only way to do it by public transport is by very circuitous routes involving two trains or two buses.

And not everyone works in the centre of towns or cities either. If you work in a rural area not within walking distance of where you live, then you probably need a car. Even in urban areas, if you work on an industrial estate on the edge, and even more so if you work shifts, you may well need a car.
 

reddragon

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An easy solution enabled by EVs is the rent by the hour model.

I do see the need starting in larger cities the removal of on street parking and replacement by dedicated hire car EV charging bays.

Those who don't use their car often, or have more than one car would have to reduce and hire instead. Making the use of e-bikes a lot easier or the Swiss model where your car tax is a rail / bus pass would be very effective.

The carrot must precede the stick.

Lets start in London!
 

43301

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An easy solution enabled by EVs is the rent by the hour model.

I do see the need starting in larger cities the removal of on street parking and replacement by dedicated hire car EV charging bays.

Those who don't use their car often, or have more than one car would have to reduce and hire instead. Making the use of e-bikes a lot easier or the Swiss model where your car tax is a rail / bus pass would be very effective.

The carrot must precede the stick.

Lets start in London!

Actually, London would be a bad place to start as that already has more 'carrot' than anywhere else in the country, in that it has much better public transport. They need to start elsewhere with the carrot before trying to use the stick. Leeds/Bradford would be a good option - public transport is crap for a conurbation this size: it's mostly just buses, with rail to some bits of it. No tram or metro rail system at all.
 

reddragon

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Actually, London would be a bad place to start as that already has more 'carrot' than anywhere else in the country, in that it has much better public transport. They need to start elsewhere with the carrot before trying to use the stick. Leeds/Bradford would be a good option - public transport is crap for a conurbation this size: it's mostly just buses, with rail to some bits of it. No tram or metro rail system at all.
Yes, any city with narrow terraced streets would do.

A good point on starting in a smaller city with awful public transport!
 

jon0844

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IMO it's just not practical to have loads of EVs sitting close to people spread out in a rural area/suburb. It's only going to be busy cities that could do it - and as with the bike hire schemes, the bikes are moved around all through the day and night. Who would be moving the EVs? If you have to walk for 30 minutes to your nearest vehicle (and return it there) then would you bother?

I think most people would still want their own car, that they can put stuff in, has the seat set right, stuff in the seat pockets, glovebox and so on. A car they can keep clean, or at least if dirty is their dirt. The key is to making people use the vehicle less, so they use other methods of transport wherever possible. People shouldn't just think that once they have a car they might as well use it for everything.

Frankly, hire schemes would also be a drop in the ocean. At times there would either be too few vehicles available, and at others way too many.
 

The Ham

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You also need to consider the transport links. I live in a fairly small down of about 15,000 people. It has good rail services to the two cities in one direction, but to the nearest large town in another direction there is nothing - no railway, and no buses. It's only about 20 miles, but the only way to do it by public transport is by very circuitous routes involving two trains or two buses.

And not everyone works in the centre of towns or cities either. If you work in a rural area not within walking distance of where you live, then you probably need a car. Even in urban areas, if you work on an industrial estate on the edge, and even more so if you work shifts, you may well need a car.

Indeed, however given that there's still more cars than income tax payers this is likely an indication that there's too much reliance on cars.
 

reddragon

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Frankly, hire schemes would also be a drop in the ocean. At times there would either be too few vehicles available, and at others way too many.
At times there is no space on the road hence huge jams, if your trip is important you book early or get a taxi.

The future of the planet is somewhat more important than one persons right to have.
 

jon0844

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My point is you will never have remotely enough cars parked up for hire compared to normal car ownership.

How could everyone book earlier? How could there be enough taxis? Loads of people would simply end up unable to travel and that would, shock horror, make them get their own car again.

It's like Grant Shapps thinking every rail worker can be replaced with agency staff! The maths don't add up.
 

bspahh

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My point is you will never have remotely enough cars parked up for hire compared to normal car ownership.

How could everyone book earlier? How could there be enough taxis? Loads of people would simply end up unable to travel and that would, shock horror, make them get their own car again.
Fewer hire cars would be needed than private cars, as those tend to sit around unused. I drive about 15000 miles a year at an average speed of 45mph. That means I drive it less than 4% of the time.

Self-driving cars will start out being used in defined locations, like a high density car park in a city centre, where the general public can be kept apart from them. This would help to shuffle them around to use a limited number of chargers. As the software improves, and the insurance industry gains confidence, they can then run on specific routes. They might also be driven remotely. At some point, a few substantial donations to one or other political party and self-driving cars will then be let loose on the normal roads. That will

The Queen has a private train. Most people just hire space on a train when they want to use one. I'm sure some people will keep using their own private car, but a combination of carrots and sticks will reduce this in city centres.

If you definitely want a car that has always been cleaned before you get it, return it in a mess, or that will definitely be available with a full charge, you'll be able to pay for that. If you are happy to take a car that hasn't been cleaned and perhaps return it clean, if you don't mind one that needs charging, or which might get cancelled, then it will be cheaper, and perhaps earn you money.
 

The Ham

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My point is you will never have remotely enough cars parked up for hire compared to normal car ownership.

How could everyone book earlier? How could there be enough taxis? Loads of people would simply end up unable to travel and that would, shock horror, make them get their own car again.

It's like Grant Shapps thinking every rail worker can be replaced with agency staff! The maths don't add up.

A lot of road space is used by parked cars, if you could remove some of it then there's the possibility of the remaining traffic being able to move about more freely.

For example a street which is one way with parking on both sides could become a two way street if you could halve the number of parked cars. Even providing more chances to giveaway asking a road would mean cars could pass parked cars in smaller gaps (you need a smaller gap to pass 4 cars than 22 cars, so the risk of another car starting to pass those parked cars before the previous one has reached you is reduced).

Another factor; once someone is within 1/2 mile of work/home if congestion is bad they could just leave the vehicle and walk or even get the bus for the last bit, removing that vehicle from the congestion trying to get past a pinch point. This could be beneficial if someone is coming into a city on the wrong side to their destination.

Without the need for a park and ride to interchange between cars and buses it becomes more viable for such an interchange. Given that buses (or a shared vehicle) are likely to be cheaper than a vehicle with just you in, some will opt for that (most likely where there's high frequencies of route). Maybe not large numbers, but given that the difference between a bad traffic day and a good traffic day (within term time) is up to 2% you may not need all that many to see improvements.

If we could get approaching 10% fall in car use then term time would look like the school holidays in most areas (clearly not those prime holiday locations where the summer holidays is when they see the worse traffic).
 

jon0844

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Fewer hire cars would be needed than private cars, as those tend to sit around unused. I drive about 15000 miles a year at an average speed of 45mph. That means I drive it less than 4% of the time.

Self-driving cars will start out being used in defined locations, like a high density car park in a city centre, where the general public can be kept apart from them. This would help to shuffle them around to use a limited number of chargers. As the software improves, and the insurance industry gains confidence, they can then run on specific routes. They might also be driven remotely. At some point, a few substantial donations to one or other political party and self-driving cars will then be let loose on the normal roads. That will

The Queen has a private train. Most people just hire space on a train when they want to use one. I'm sure some people will keep using their own private car, but a combination of carrots and sticks will reduce this in city centres.

If you definitely want a car that has always been cleaned before you get it, return it in a mess, or that will definitely be available with a full charge, you'll be able to pay for that. If you are happy to take a car that hasn't been cleaned and perhaps return it clean, if you don't mind one that needs charging, or which might get cancelled, then it will be cheaper, and perhaps earn you money.

It's a great aspiration, but it isn't going to happen.

Yes there are too many cars filling streets not being driven, but there's no way to substitute that many cars with enough hire cars that will be clean, in the right place, the right size/type and so on. Part of the convenience of owning a car is you already have your stuff in it, that isn't removed every night. It's paired to your phone, the satnav has your presets on it (sure, now you'll likely use Android Auto/Car Play but you get my point) and even has the right seat/mirror settings. Plus, you know all the controls.

Self-driving cars are still 10+ years away at minimum (it's nearly 20 years since people were talking seriously about full automation and look where we are now - still miles away from anything close to level 5). There's going to need to be an acceptance at some point in time that for a car to fully self drive itself, safely, it will need to do so in controlled environments - on roads not shared with people, bikes, horses and other obstructions. For normal roads, you'll need that driver. So forget the idea of summoning a vehicle to your home or place of work (assuming it could find you easily, as there's then the issue of accuracy in mapping data for that level of detail for a computer over someone who can look around or even ask for directions) - and how are we solving congestion issues if cars are driving around empty to get to us over it simply being parked where we last left it?

In a town, where does that summoned car stop? In the middle of the road? Or does it park up nearby and call you to make you walk to it? There are literally SO many reasons that this future utopia isn't going to happen as we all wish it would - unless we tear up all current roads and rebuild something akin to a railway in terms of controlled environment.

This thread is of course about people buying EVs and of course, yes, is the answer to whether people will get them and whether they're a good thing. That solves emissions, but not congestion. That is solved by having people who own a car not using it all the time because they can use other modes of transports a lot of the time.

If someone buys an e-bike, or perhaps a scooter if they're legalised, then they might not need a second car at all. That then helps free up the streets. Streets should also have segregated cycle lanes (rather than painted lines) to encourage more usage to the point that for a lot of the time you'd willingly choose to cycle than drive.

Technology will continue to improve with more sensors being able to help a driver reduce the risks in normal driving, and assist in many ways, but forget about people giving up cars and joining a car club. In a city, these have had some success (but clearly not enough as they're still pretty sparse) but everywhere else it's just pie-in-the-sky.
 

reddragon

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It's a great aspiration, but it isn't going to happen.

Yes there are too many cars filling streets not being driven, but there's no way to substitute that many cars with enough hire cars that will be clean, in the right place, the right size/type and so on. Part of the convenience of owning a car is you already have your stuff in it, that isn't removed every night. It's paired to your phone, the satnav has your presets on it (sure, now you'll likely use Android Auto/Car Play but you get my point) and even has the right seat/mirror settings. Plus, you know all the controls.

Self-driving cars are still 10+ years away at minimum (it's nearly 20 years since people were talking seriously about full automation and look where we are now - still miles away from anything close to level 5). There's going to need to be an acceptance at some point in time that for a car to fully self drive itself, safely, it will need to do so in controlled environments - on roads not shared with people, bikes, horses and other obstructions. For normal roads, you'll need that driver. So forget the idea of summoning a vehicle to your home or place of work (assuming it could find you easily, as there's then the issue of accuracy in mapping data for that level of detail for a computer over someone who can look around or even ask for directions) - and how are we solving congestion issues if cars are driving around empty to get to us over it simply being parked where we last left it?

In a town, where does that summoned car stop? In the middle of the road? Or does it park up nearby and call you to make you walk to it? There are literally SO many reasons that this future utopia isn't going to happen as we all wish it would - unless we tear up all current roads and rebuild something akin to a railway in terms of controlled environment.

This thread is of course about people buying EVs and of course, yes, is the answer to whether people will get them and whether they're a good thing. That solves emissions, but not congestion. That is solved by having people who own a car not using it all the time because they can use other modes of transports a lot of the time.

If someone buys an e-bike, or perhaps a scooter if they're legalised, then they might not need a second car at all. That then helps free up the streets. Streets should also have segregated cycle lanes (rather than painted lines) to encourage more usage to the point that for a lot of the time you'd willingly choose to cycle than drive.

Technology will continue to improve with more sensors being able to help a driver reduce the risks in normal driving, and assist in many ways, but forget about people giving up cars and joining a car club. In a city, these have had some success (but clearly not enough as they're still pretty sparse) but everywhere else it's just pie-in-the-sky.
Sorry to dampen your pessimism but it's already happening with LTNs (low traffic neighbourhoods), cycle lanes replacing traffic lanes and a huge growth in EV hire by the hour. One company in London alone has over 1000 e-Golfs available to hire by the hour and car club / hire bays are growing in number.

You may live somewhere unaffected by change, but in some cities in some countries this transition is very advanced. Utrecht is the world leader, the trend setter. Expect the principal to spread to many place but of course not all places.

EVs enable this due to the minimal maintenance required and free charging included.

The Berkshire county town was Abingdon. The town shunned the railways, so the railway built a new county town in Reading. Abingdon is now a congested backwater, Reading is a major county town.
 

jon0844

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I am not saying car hire schemes won't work! People have hired cars since before EVs and app-based car hire schemes. But 1,000 cars in London isn't going to get all Londoners to sell their cars - and I doubt any business model for these companies ever expected to either.

Most people using them are already enjoying an excellent public transport service, a plentiful supply of taxis, cycling or walking and don't therefore don't own a car. They join a car club for the few times they need one, perhaps when leaving London on a holiday or because they need to carry stuff that they don't need a van for.

What some are suggesting here is that somehow an EV for hire is going to get people who own a car, because they need it to get around most of the time, to get rid of it. I suggest most aren't going to do that - until all the reasons for someone in London not owning a car apply to them. Then they won't need a car (ICE or EV) often either.
 

reddragon

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I am not saying car hire schemes won't work! People have hired cars since before EVs and app-based car hire schemes. But 1,000 cars in London isn't going to get all Londoners to sell their cars - and I doubt any business model for these companies ever expected to either.

Most people using them are already enjoying an excellent public transport service, a plentiful supply of taxis, cycling or walking and don't therefore don't own a car. They join a car club for the few times they need one, perhaps when leaving London on a holiday or because they need to carry stuff that they don't need a van for.

What some are suggesting here is that somehow an EV for hire is going to get people who own a car, because they need it to get around most of the time, to get rid of it. I suggest most aren't going to do that - until all the reasons for someone in London not owning a car apply to them. Then they won't need a car (ICE or EV) often either.
I work in London a lot, contracts all over the place. Parking bay suspensions are a nightmare because so many cars are parked up for days, weeks, months & even years without moving so getting them moved to carry out our UTX inspection is problematic so we often end up having to just close the road instead.

We simply need to remove half the parking spaces in certain roads & let nature take it's course. Maybe also change the law putting a parking time limit for any car to park in one place.

Car clubs of course and e-bike storage with charging must be done at the same time.

Streets are for people, not cars.
 

BingMan

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It’s not easy to manage without a car in a rural area, even somewhere not completely isolated that does have a limited bus service.
But why does that car have to be a five seater weighing two tons?
An electric motorcycle or even an electrically assisted bicycle would be more appropriate for most journeys.
 

bspahh

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It's a great aspiration, but it isn't going to happen.

Yes there are too many cars filling streets not being driven, but there's no way to substitute that many cars with enough hire cars that will be clean, in the right place, the right size/type and so on. Part of the convenience of owning a car is you already have your stuff in it, that isn't removed every night. It's paired to your phone, the satnav has your presets on it (sure, now you'll likely use Android Auto/Car Play but you get my point) and even has the right seat/mirror settings. Plus, you know all the controls.
A hire car won't come with a half-opened pack of your favourite cough sweets in the door pocket. You'll need to bring those with you. You will need a phone app to book and unlock the car. That app can apply your personal settings for the seat and mirrors. If you don't have a suitable phone, you won't use the hire cars.
Self-driving cars are still 10+ years away at minimum (it's nearly 20 years since people were talking seriously about full automation and look where we are now - still miles away from anything close to level 5). There's going to need to be an acceptance at some point in time that for a car to fully self drive itself, safely, it will need to do so in controlled environments - on roads not shared with people, bikes, horses and other obstructions. For normal roads, you'll need that driver. So forget the idea of summoning a vehicle to your home or place of work (assuming it could find you easily, as there's then the issue of accuracy in mapping data for that level of detail for a computer over someone who can look around or even ask for directions) - and how are we solving congestion issues if cars are driving around empty to get to us over it simply being parked where we last left it?
You can book a car with Uber, and it works out. In a busy place, like a station or airport, there might be an equivalent of a taxi rank, or you could get instructions to pick the car up from a car park. Self-driving hire cars can park in high density car parks, as humans don't need to get in and out of the cars, and you just need a car rather than a specific one. Elsewhere, self-driving cars will get to places that their mapping allows. If you are stood in the middle of a field, or in the middle of a new housing estate, which hasn't been mapped, you will need to get to a mapped region.
Congestion will cleared when you have less on street parking, fewer people driving around looking for a parking space.
In a town, where does that summoned car stop? In the middle of the road? Or does it park up nearby and call you to make you walk to it? There are literally SO many reasons that this future utopia isn't going to happen as we all wish it would - unless we tear up all current roads and rebuild something akin to a railway in terms of controlled environment.

Technology will continue to improve with more sensors being able to help a driver reduce the risks in normal driving, and assist in many ways, but forget about people giving up cars and joining a car club. In a city, these have had some success (but clearly not enough as they're still pretty sparse) but everywhere else it's just pie-in-the-sky.
Electric hire cars fix the problem of how to charge cars which only have access to on-street parking. For short journeys, you could just use the hire car. For longer ones, use the hire car to connect to trains, or you could book a more specialised hire vehicle - a car with long battery range, a van, people carrier, camper van, convertible etc, rather than trying to own one car that does everything.

Why will this happen? The main one is that there are some big profits to be made from selling high quality transportation to some, and cheap transportation to a lot more. I suspect this means that there will be some donations to political parties, consultancies, fact finding trips and conferences , which will get the ear of politicians.
 

Bletchleyite

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You may live somewhere unaffected by change, but in some cities in some countries this transition is very advanced. Utrecht is the world leader, the trend setter. Expect the principal to spread to many place but of course not all places.

London is different because London has quality public transport usable for most journeys. A club car is therefore only needed occasionally.

Get those tram and U- and S-Bahn networks built and your proposal may have some weight.

Manchester is the one other city in the UK where I think this would work well now, but only in those areas with Metrolink coverage. Possibly Edinburgh too, but only because it's small so bus can provide really good public transport. Merseyrail is great but the coverage is very poor, it basically just follows the coasts.

Don't say cycling. Look at the demographics of London cyclists - aggressive, assertive young males riding fast, expensive road bikes, predominantly. You won't get Old Granny Smith on a bike until you achieve full Dutch style segregation. She won't easily give up her trusty old 1l Corsa.
 

paul1609

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But why does that car have to be a five seater weighing two tons?
An electric motorcycle or even an electrically assisted bicycle would be more appropriate for most journeys.
I live in a small village of 700 people, I currently run a pushbike, a motorcycle and a 10 year old pick up. The pick ups used for shopping trips, most journeys when the temp drops below 5 degs, 75% of my heritage railway volunteering, 100% of my village hall maintenance trips, 50% of my trips as chairman of the village sports club. 100% of my roster trips to take elderly neighbours to Canterbury hospital for radiotherapy. I'd personally manage with just the motorbike but my community activities would have to severely curtailed without the 4 wheeled vehicle.
 

reddragon

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I live in a small village of 700 people, I currently run a pushbike, a motorcycle and a 10 year old pick up. The pick ups used for shopping trips, most journeys when the temp drops below 5 degs, 75% of my heritage railway volunteering, 100% of my village hall maintenance trips, 50% of my trips as chairman of the village sports club. 100% of my roster trips to take elderly neighbours to Canterbury hospital for radiotherapy. I'd personally manage with just the motorbike but my community activities would have to severely curtailed without the 4 wheeled vehicle.
I think the same applies to everyone in a village. I have 3 buses a day but none before 10 or after 5. I have no safe walking route to the main village with shops & no bike parking at destination. I'm on emergency call for work & an elderly relative. I will probably always need a car, but the second one will go as soon as other options are possible which I hope to happen this year.
 

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