Even those who think that EV's should be the norm much sooner don't think that it'll happen within a short timeframe (i.e. probably 10 years away at least).
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Do you think that the UK switching to electric vehicles is realistic?
- Thread starter MattA7
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Even those who think that EV's should be the norm much sooner don't think that it'll happen within a short timeframe (i.e. probably 10 years away at least).
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But the spread of EV charging facilities will be earliest and fastest in areas where there are the most users, so the overall coverage will follow an 'S' curve with only the outliers to deal with in the late '30s. I would expect the rate of installations to rise in sympathy with the bulk release of new EV models, currently projected to be between 2024 and 2026, when the major manufacturers close virtually all of their ICV production lines and turn them over to full scale electric vehicle manufacture. That will also co-incide with some of the developments in battery technology that is likely to reduce the demand on certain raw materials.
reddragon
Established Member
Welcome to the forum @chocobike
The problem is for anyone new to this is that there is a dominance of oil/gas/mining misinformation out there, total lies and smoke screens. It is a well funded misinformation campaign.
The world's largest Lithium mine is in Australia, it's huge and produces half of the worlds Lithium at the current time, but in all of Australia one Oil Refinery alone creates many times the levels of pollution & hence complaint, that is one of thousands not half the worlds production. Yes Lithium mining has issues like any mining but it will be used in a battery for 25 years not burnt in an instant like oil.
The other big one is Cobalt. Did you know an ICE car consumes & emits more Cobalt used in oil refining than an EV has in its battery? Oil companies sort of forget to mention that don't they! Cobalt, which is being phased out in EV batteries is mined & used for 25 years and can be recycled. Cobalt used in oil refining creating toxic waste is then burnt & emitted from the exhaust pipe.
The winners from electrification are everyone, your health, the environment & our climate. The winners from delaying this are aging investors, oil barons & oligarchs from despot regimes who profit from everyone else but pay not taxes or pay for the damage they cause.
We all have a lot to learn, so enjoy your learning journey.
StKeverne1497
Member
Could you expand on that, please? Apart from paint pigments and some specialised metal alloys, I only know about Cobalt being used in catalysts, and the whole point of a catalyst is that it isn't "consumed and emitted".
reddragon
Established Member
Cobalt is used to refine oil for use as a fuel. The amount of cobalt used in refining enough fuel for the life of an ICE car is above that of the amount of cobalt in a new EV.
It has also been found that exhaust emissions includes burnt cobalt, there was a detailed report about it recently that I cannot yet find.
Indeed, but a small amount is always lost to process due to chemical, mechanical or hydraulic interactions.
StKeverne1497
Member
According to this US government report, there could be as much as 20kg of Cobalt in a current technology 100kWh battery pack. That is obviously 1kg of Cobalt per 5kWh of Lithium battery so a typical mid-range EV with a 60kWh pack might have 12kg of Cobalt. That seems quite a lot, though as it's locked up in the battery you need to spread that over the 7 to 10 year lifespan of the pack and consider how much can be recovered when (if?) the pack is properly recycled.
I would be keen on figures for the use in ICE cars. As I implied, the Cobalt used in refining seems to be solely as part of catalytic processes so a minimal amount should be "consumed". Given that Cobalt hasn't - until the advent of EVs - been seen as a particularly scarce or strategic resource, I can only assume that a significant amount more Cobalt is used now than has been the case over the decades of ICE use. What quantity of Cobalt is "lost" in the life cycle of an ICE and its fuel? Even just knowing the order of magnitude would be helpful - is it micrograms or miligrams or grams per mile?
I realise that new technologies reduce or eliminate the amount of Cobalt in a battery, but without proper comparative figures it's difficult to know whether Cobalt is something we need to be very concerned about, moderately concerned about, or not concerened about at all.
reddragon
Established Member
"As much as 20kg" is the key statement here. You do have to go back to the early days of EV batteries to get this kind of level per kWh when they were small, in reality it's a quarter of than today on older battery tech and high density batteries, Tesla uses 4.5kg currently on long range models. Half of Tesla EV batteries contain NO cobalt at all, as do all LPF batteries that are Cobalt free mostly in Chinese based EVs. You do have plenty of choice of cobalt free EVs but they do tend to be the shorter range models that are also the cheaper models.
The oil companies are very secretive on this so there is a lot of third party research going on to find out the true figures. From figures I found before it does depend a lot of the source of the oil and what it is being converted into. Brent crude is considered at the clean end so uses less but some is at the very dirty end. The only conclusion that I was able to find was that EV batteries contained about as much cobalt as a typical ICE car uses in its life but as EV battery cobalt diminishes, that changes to much less or zero. Of course a catalytic convertor contains 5-10% Cobalt too, clearly not fitted in an EV.
Basically EVs use less cobalt than an ICE and the gap is growing.
The car park on Charmouth Road, Lyme Regis states 386 spaces electric car charging facility.
Having been there it is just one 50kW charger which was available.
If EV are to be 50% of cars in 10 years time many more chargers will be needed. A lower rate would be adequate - 15kW would if not fully charge give a significant charge in 3 hours.
100 15kW chargers would only be just over 25% of the capacity but need infrastructure rated at 15000kW / 15MW.
Add another 100 at Holmbush Road car park and the combined infrastructure rating becomes 30000kw / 30MW.
I wonder is there even any planning for the required infrastructure, and not just one example but all of the UK?
Having been there it is just one 50kW charger which was available.
If EV are to be 50% of cars in 10 years time many more chargers will be needed. A lower rate would be adequate - 15kW would if not fully charge give a significant charge in 3 hours.
100 15kW chargers would only be just over 25% of the capacity but need infrastructure rated at 15000kW / 15MW.
Add another 100 at Holmbush Road car park and the combined infrastructure rating becomes 30000kw / 30MW.
I wonder is there even any planning for the required infrastructure, and not just one example but all of the UK?
Actually the website for that car park states:
386 spaces
and
There is parking for two electric cars.
Of course that will be expanded as demand increases and it's misleading to pretend otherwise.
I'm not sure how essential "destination charging" like that is going to be.
Most EVs will be charged at home most of the time. Increasing numbers of hotels and holiday rentals have chargers.
A car park like that is typically used for a day trip somewhere. There aren't many day trips where you need to charge en route, unless you have a very small battery.
The Niro EV I'm getting has a 280 mile range. The only time we'll need to charge other than at home or at a holiday rental is on the drive to and from holiday.
Most EVs will be charged at home most of the time. Increasing numbers of hotels and holiday rentals have chargers.
A car park like that is typically used for a day trip somewhere. There aren't many day trips where you need to charge en route, unless you have a very small battery.
The Niro EV I'm getting has a 280 mile range. The only time we'll need to charge other than at home or at a holiday rental is on the drive to and from holiday.
reddragon
Established Member
95% of charging by home charger owners will be done at home, those without will need overnight or workplace / destination charging.
My 30kw & 40kw LEAFs I charged out a lot, the MG5 only on long trips over 200 miles so even driving 600 miles in a day only needs 2 or 3 charge stops
My 30kw & 40kw LEAFs I charged out a lot, the MG5 only on long trips over 200 miles so even driving 600 miles in a day only needs 2 or 3 charge stops
Even if and when all spaces get charging, the site will be able to regulate the power between all of them and not every vehicle will need charging constantly, and many will just be people topping up so not draw power for long - like dropping your phone on a wireless charging stand when not in use so the phone remains at 80-100% (some phones now let you choose). At home, my phones are likely always full and ready for when I go out.
A car park used by commuters likely has someone parked there for at least 8-10 hours, and if someone needed a more rapid charge they could perhaps select that as an option upon arrival and potentially pay a premium.
A car park used by commuters likely has someone parked there for at least 8-10 hours, and if someone needed a more rapid charge they could perhaps select that as an option upon arrival and potentially pay a premium.
Therein lies the problem. If the car is parked for 8 - 10 hours, but only needs charging for a few hours, that deprives someone else of the opportunity to charge their car. (Unless the charger is set up so that, say, 20 cars can be plugged in at the same time, but only a few are being charged at any point in time.)
Inconsiderate acts like tying up a charging point for longer than is necessary can be delat with by high non-charging 'excess occupancy penalties'. So when a rogue commuter who 'grabbed' the charger at 07:30 gets back to their vehicle at 18:00, they will see that it received the desired energy charge by 11:00 and then whinge at the excess occupancy penalty, (maybe several times the cost of the energy charge) that they inherited by abusing thwe use of a public amenity. That might help them to kick the habit fairly quickly.
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Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Or when you have a car park that is typically parked in all day, you provide all day slow charging rather than a fast charger. 13A sockets are hardly expensive. If there was a 13A socket in every single parking space and you always plugged in every time you parked, you'd always have a nicely topped up battery except when doing a long journey.
Fast chargers can be in a small number of dedicated bays with a time restriction for those needing them. There is no need for them in every bay.
reddragon
Established Member
Places need options such as smart charging to give x% by time xx:xx or charge by time parked. Many EVs can sit 8 hours on a fast charger & still be charging up!
The safest option is a 3kw Type 2 connector in long stay car parks, 7kw in supermarkets & rapids only for short term quick charging up for long trips, maybe charged per minute not kwh
thats exactly the proposition.
That's why a car park used by commuters will have loads of charging bays, because they're essentially long stay car parks. In your local Tesco, where chances are there's a time limit for ALL parking anyway, there can be penalties - but the user isn't so likely to want to be there that long anyway.
Two car parks near me have around 30 and 50 EV charging bays respectively, and will quite probably add more in future years. I am not sure what the charge rate on offer is, but they don't need to be rapid ones.
Hopefully EV owners will show consideration too, so if they left home with a full battery they won't use a charging bay after the 1-2 mile to the station. I can see evidence of this by the number of Teslas and other EVs (identified by the green plate) not parked in one of the EV bays.
reddragon
Established Member
I do think that there will be a need for residents only charging bays very soon.
Runningaround
Member
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If their could be a way for leads to detach and store themselves once the car fully charged then it'd be possible for another car to park nearby and be plugged in. Perhaps a carpark attendant could do this for you or the lead can wind itself like a winch.
I only saw one charger and logically two would be together. I didn't look that closely but maybe two cars can be connected although the bay was not obviously marked for two cars.
Back to my original post adding chargers is not the issue but rather the infrastructure to supply them.
If 250 mile range becomes normal except for a car sold as primarily for local journeys only then yes. Now a car with a battery capacity of around 50kWh has a safe range ( i.e. at least 25 mile contingency ) of more like 125 miles even at slower speeds. Battery deterioration and fast charging to 80% capacity both cut this so it could only be 75 miles.
I see the main requirement for 50kW chargers at motorway and roadside charging stations. For car parks lower rate chargers and smart management to regulate the total supply load. Park for 4 hours, which now normally has a higher cost per hour, and get a higher priority than parking for 10 hours. Also given the cost will be higher than home charging be able to set e.g. add 20kWh rather than charge until full.
I see this is the most practical solution.
At best this adds complexity and costs, in reality likely to reduce reliability too.
Runningaround
Member
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Maybe but if a 20 bay carpark can only hold 10 charge points and all are taken by long stay then it'd be possible to free the charge points up for the other 10 if its laid out properly
I think these numbers need checking.
a car with a 77kwh battery has a WLTP range of 320 miles. (Specifically the VW ID4 Pro)
Scaling the battery to 50kwh gives it a range of 208 miles. It’s too early to say what the battery deterioration of VW EVs is, but assuming it is the same as Teslas, then it will reduce to around 90% after 100,000 miles minimum. Which means c190 miles range. Even allowing for the arbritary 25 miles contingency, that’s still 165 miles, which is rather more than you state.
But, of course, it’s hypothetical, as 70kwh+ batteries are going to become more and more common.
I always understood that plug-in leads are locked in, so that the local scroats can't go round unplugging allthe cars.
StKeverne1497
Member
Batteries are getting better and bigger and things are improving, but there are still some common cases where it's marginal.
For example, my commute is a round 90 miles with about 70 miles of that at motorway speeds and no realistic prospect of charging at the "work" end. I don't work 5 days a week, but I still manage to put 24,000 miles or more on the clock each year, I even did 20,000ish during 2020!
Sounds fine - I could get a car with a 65kWh battery and 275 mile range and be sorted, yes?
Well, not quite. that 275 miles is the maximum range of the car and would be perfect for our three or four trips a year to see in-laws when it's acceptable to top up to 100% and run down to 10% or so, but to best look after the battery many manufacturers recommend not discharging below 20% regularly, and not charging above 80% regularly. So from new the "daily use" range to keep the battery in best condition is now only 60% of the full capacity, that is 165 miles. Then you put that 165 miles into the range checker with "in the winter" and "motorway speeds" selected and it becomes 125 miles or so which still (just about) works for my commute, but doesn't give a huge margin for error - 35 miles to retain that 20%. My main diversionary route if the motorway isn't running (happens more often than you'd think) involves going "up and over" a range of hills and takes a bit more effort than the flat, coastal motorway route.
And then there is the small matter of age. There are wildly varying estimates of how batteries age and what I will need to know is how much range is retained at 5 years, 7 years, 10 years or alternatively at 50,000 miles, 100,000 miles and so on. My last couple of cars have all lasted to 200,000 miles or more. The range at 10 years is particularly important because while I don't expect my cars to retain much value after over 200,000 miles and a hard life, I do expect them to retain some value, which might not be the case for a 10 year-old EV with an "old" battery which needs replacing, but might not be easy to source.
So, not quite there yet for me personally, but I do recognise that things have come a very long way since the first couple of models of Leaf, which frankly would have struggled to do my commute one-way given the constraints above! Another five years (I hope to keep my current car going at least that long) and maybe - just maybe - there will be something affordable which does the job.
If not? Dunno. Have to find a new job I suppose because public transport for my journey is a non-starter on convenience (the short walk, bus, train, train, long walk takes at least twice as long as driving), cost (it still works out about twice the cost of driving, even with current fuel prices) and practicality - I'd probably have to start work later in the morning, and I would not be able to volunteer for evening work.
Maybe that's the sacrifice we'll have to make for a "cleaner" world...
Modern battery chemistries mean the 20-80% thing isn't an issue any more. And in any case there are unusable buffers in the battery which means 100% isn't actually 100% and 0% isn't actuall fully discharged. The capacity quoted is the usable capacity that the BMS will allow you to use.
There's a lot of FUD out there about battery degradation. Unless you've got a Leaf (no active thermal management of the battery) or an early VW ID there little to worry about. If your car has an LFP battery there is nothing to worry about.
Overall very few trips done are over 50 miles, as such taking your example is quite an extreme situation.
As such it's likely that by the time you are forced to have an EV then chances are enough other people will have one that charging at work would be something that is at least available (even if it's charged) as otherwise your employer could find it harder to retain staff.
reddragon
Established Member
My non stop EV record on 1 charge on a motorway is 190 miles using 78% charge, my 1 day trip record in an EV is 400 miles. I expect to break that this year maybe even beating my day diesel record. EVs are realistic.