HS2 Manchester leg scrapped: what should happen now?

[Mogster]

If Euston and the Handsacre link are built, it will be a useful 6 tracking of the southern WCML, albeit no where near as useful as it should have been. The current 9tph service can be diverted to join the new line at Handsacre and free up a lot of space for southern WCML commuter line - whilst shaving 30 minutes off the Manchester and Scotland services. Without the Handsacre link and Euston, it becomes a gleaming white elephant.

Aye. Not building Euston and Handsacre would be monumentally stupid. Also everything should be done to make sure that building North can be continued at some point. Although governments tend to go for scorched earth like TSR2 as others have said.

I still feel what is announced may be sone sort of extended delay. This looks like a blue V sign to the rail unions also.

 

[baffobear]

I'm not sure why people thought the Manchester and Leeds links were ever actually going to happen. Apart from the fact both legs made sense, it was all too simple

Now we're at this point, all we need is to ensure the tunnel from Old Oak Common connects to the HS1 tunnels under Islington, then we have a well connected international High speed network with two London stations, both connected either by crossrail either end.

As for Euston itself...well that was a waste of money and a lot of buildings gone and people displaced, but let's realistic here. IF you start a project without having a design finalised, just some flashy 3D renders, that itself is a case for trouble.

 

[class26]

Won't believe the media, but will believe the government when they announce it - I mean that's one way of looking at it!

From my POV, it's bonkers to announce something like this that will effect Manchester when you are holding your conference in Manchester. You couldn't make it up!

has been denied by Downing Street just now.

 

[507020]

It appears that the next election will occur before the powers are extinguished.

Very good news

Don't expect a simple reinstatement of the HS2 plans.

But, seriously, what other option is there?

If this country is ever to be seen as returning to sanity of any kind, then HS2 must be completed as originally planned. Unelected Rishi simply can not be seen to have ever held the power to cancel such vital national infrastructure projects.

A lot of blind worship of the Victorian railway in Britain, but unfortunately the railway we have now is in no way fit for purpose and it cannot be made so.

Very much so, but the post-Beeching network as much as I hate to call it that has barely any of the infrastructure capabilities that were present in the Victorian era, let alone the inter-war period after a few more decades of rail upgrades. Certainly only a fraction of the capacity exists today that once existed and all of that is on the axes that still exist, with a greater implication for connectivity.

The current network is almost completely useless in comparison. If HS2 does not happen, there needs to be a network wide appraisal of which strategic routes are to be reopened an electrified, which of course means just as much if not more compulsory purchasing as HS2.

Rishi claims (incorrectly) that not building any more roads with a >20mph speed limit in Wales is an “attack on motorists” but what he is doing is genuinely an attack on rail passengers, both present and future.

Don’t even get me started on what scrapping HS2 means for the modal shift from air to rail on direct journeys from the north and midlands to continental Europe, avoiding London.

 

[BrianW]

I'm not sure why people thought the Manchester and Leeds links were ever actually going to happen. Apart from the fact both legs made sense, it was all too simple

Now we're at this point, all we need is to ensure the tunnel from Old Oak Common connects to the HS1 tunnels under Islington, then we have a well connected international High speed network with two London stations, both connected either by crossrail either end.

As for Euston itself...well that was a waste of money and a lot of buildings gone and people displaced, but let's realistic here. IF you start a project without having a design finalised, just some flashy 3D renders, that itself is a case for trouble.

Realism, Baffobear? HS2 is never going to connect direct to 'Europe'- well not in the foreseeable future, at least. There are insufficient staff for even Ashford 'International' let alone origins and destinations 'up North'. For 'them' its Zoom or Ryanair or a 'holiday flight'. There's little to no business opportunity 'sur le Continent' from this offshore island. Tragic. That's what the Great British people voted for. A million flies can't be wrong. Sorry.

 

[Grimsby town]

Andy Street hasn't really minced his words - and he's a Tory mayor (from the Guardian piece linked previously upthread):

Andy Street is completely correct. Why should any business have confidence in anything the UK government says or does. Why invest when you don't know if the government will change their minds and your investment will be worthless? If there's anything an economics degree taught me, it's that uncertainty destroys economies.

I'm not sure people realise how much effort has been put in to get HS2 this far and how much effort would be needed to design and implement a replacement. Scraping HS2 doesn't just impact HS2, it impacts many transport and economic plans that revolved around its implementation. These now need to be re-written and revaluated. Its likely that the skilled staff will be made redundant and likely dissappear to other countries or industries anyway so good luck building alternatives.

 

[swt_passenger]

A mess indeed.

Farmland would just go back to nature, I guess, and the land around Euston and Curzon St would be quite valuable sold for development.

Yeah, and all those massive concrete structures already built might just evaporate.

 

[matacaster]

Surprising this was scrapped but East Midlands Parkway is still on the table (although I know there's no chance)

I'm not sure why people thought the Manchester and Leeds links were ever actually going to happen. Apart from the fact both legs made sense, it was all too simple

Now we're at this point, all we need is to ensure the tunnel from Old Oak Common connects to the HS1 tunnels under Islington, then we have a well connected international High speed network with two London stations, both connected either by crossrail either end.

As for Euston itself...well that was a waste of money and a lot of buildings gone and people displaced, but let's realistic here. IF you start a project without having a design finalised, just some flashy 3D renders, that itself is a case for trouble.

Is there space for such trains terminate at Ashford?

 

[Grimsby town]

Was. As things are now post COVID, just extending the 9 car Pendolinos to 11, running all LNR services as 12-car (or 10.730) and sorting out another couple of 12-car platforms at Euston (hey, we could just have 17 and 18 back, with 17 extended a bit) would provide all the passenger capacity needed for a long time. And if we could do a bit more platform lengthening and get to 300m as a standard length (11.390 is 265m), then that'd be a decent bit more.

Freight is perhaps another argument, but just building HS2 for freight capacity is a weak argument when a 50mph freight-only line would be loads cheaper.

That's maybe the case for peak services but if we are to acheive modal shift that we need then we need to be running more regular trains off peak too. 1 train per hour London-Liverpool or Glasgow isn't good enough to make services attractive. The Trent Valley stations have a poor service to both London and Manchester. Northampton's service is too slow. Milton Kenynes needs far more trains to support the planned population growth. We need better public transport services.

 

[stu]

has been denied by Downing Street just now.

Almost certainly means it'll be cancelled then

 

[snowball]

The denials are only denials that a decision has already been made, not denials that a decision will be announced this week.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

Jesus wept, this ****show of a government. I genuinely have no words if the Sky reports are accurate. Other than all the immediate economic damage etc etc, the long term damage this will do to the UK as an investment opportunity is incalculable. I would have thought the Treasury produced better economists than this but perhaps they really do know the cost of everything and the value of absolutely nothing. Bean counters who don’t know where the beans come from.

 

[Noddy]

Andy Street is completely correct. Why should any business have confidence in anything the UK government says or does. Why invest when you don't know if the government will change their minds and your investment will be worthless? If there's anything an economics degree taught me, it's that uncertainty destroys economies.

I'm not sure people realise how much effort has been put in to get HS2 this far and how much effort would be needed to design and implement a replacement. Scraping HS2 doesn't just impact HS2, it impacts many transport and economic plans that revolved around its implementation. These now need to be re-written and revaluated. Its likely that the skilled staff will be made redundant and likely dissappear to other countries or industries anyway so good luck building alternatives.

Absolutely agree. A tram line to go to the middle of Curzon Street station is currently under construction. NPR totally relies on HS2. This is complete and utter financial madness from the government.

 

[matacaster]

Andy Street is completely correct. Why should any business have confidence in anything the UK government says or does. Why invest when you don't know if the government will change their minds and your investment will be worthless? If there's anything an economics degree taught me, it's that uncertainty destroys economies.

I'm not sure people realise how much effort has been put in to get HS2 this far and how much effort would be needed to design and implement a replacement. Scraping HS2 doesn't just impact HS2, it impacts many transport and economic plans that revolved around its implementation. These now need to be re-written and revaluated. Its likely that the skilled staff will be made redundant and likely dissappear to other countries or industries anyway so good luck building alternatives.

Some good points, but Starmer has changed so many of his policies depending on the way his focus group is thinking that day I have no confidence he would be any more reliable.

 

[HSTEd]

The current network is almost completely useless in comparison. If HS2 does not happen, there needs to be a network wide appraisal of which strategic routes are to be reopened an electrified, which of course means just as much if not more compulsory purchasing as HS2.

Reopening lines is not a sensible solution to our problems though!
The railway network built for the steam era with mechanical signalling and huge labour requirements is nothing like the railway we need today.

You could, for example (and not to derail the thread), pick up the bulk of the demand from the Brighton Mainline, the SWML and most of the associated branches with one double-track modern railway. That level of capability is something that existing lines or old reopened ones can never hope to achieve.

 

[david_g]

A mess indeed.

Farmland would just go back to nature, I guess, and the land around Euston and Curzon St would be quite valuable sold for development.

Anyone who thinks the route of HS2 looks like farmland should come to Warwickshire and take a tour around the route. A massive amount of earthmoving has taken place. We've suffered 8 years of disruption, roads closed at the drop of hat and you propose spaffing that away?

Just build the thing.

 

[DoubleLemon]

Let's wait and see what these other transport projects are before judging too harshly. Thinking about it they will probably be out of office before any of them start so Manchester leg might be reinstated by the new incoming government.

I bet you it will be tiny projects where the local councils have to pay lots of money for a bid of a pot. (Like the levelling up fund) - it will be a one off therefore nothing long term. Not like infrastructure which will last 100+ years.

 

[The Planner]

Was. As things are now post COVID, just extending the 9 car Pendolinos to 11, running all LNR services as 12-car (or 10.730) and sorting out another couple of 12-car platforms at Euston (hey, we could just have 17 and 18 back, with 17 extended a bit) would provide all the passenger capacity needed for a long time. And if we could do a bit more platform lengthening and get to 300m as a standard length (11.390 is 265m), then that'd be a decent bit more.

Freight is perhaps another argument, but just building HS2 for freight capacity is a weak argument when a 50mph freight-only line would be loads cheaper.

I'll ask again, what use are extra platforms if you cannot get trains into them? The Dec 22 timetable has no reduction in trains to VHF and it works on 16 platforms.

If Euston and the Handsacre link are built, it will be a useful 6 tracking of the southern WCML, albeit no where near as useful as it should have been. The current 9tph service can be diverted to join the new line at Handsacre and free up a lot of space for southern WCML commuter line - whilst shaving 30 minutes off the Manchester and Scotland services. Without the Handsacre link and Euston, it becomes a gleaming white elephant.

It wouldn't be 9tph via Handsacre (there aren't 9 to go that way as 3 go to Birmingham). The Chester was never going via HS2 either.

 

[baffobear]

Realism, Baffobear? HS2 is never going to connect direct to 'Europe'- well not in the foreseeable future, at least. There are insufficient staff for even Ashford 'International' let alone origins and destinations 'up North'. For 'them' its Zoom or Ryanair or a 'holiday flight'. There's little to no business opportunity 'sur le Continent' from this offshore island. Tragic. That's what the Great British people voted for. A million flies can't be wrong. Sorry.

Agreed. It's a shame, the difference is a matter of half a mile or so between the two railways. It'll be opportunity for a network lost.

 

[AndrewE]

You could, for example (and not to derail the thread), pick up the bulk of the demand from the Brighton Mainline, the SWML and most of the associated branches with one double-track modern railway. That level of capability is something that existing lines or old reopened ones can never hope to achieve.

Which I have always thought would be a good alternative southern terminus for HS2 anyway. 2/3 the trains to Euston, the rest to Brighton, with servicing depots etc putting employment into another relatively depressed coastal town.

 

[TheSmiths82]

As a Mancunian I think it is time to ditch England and create a new country with Liverpool, and maybe Leeds and Sheffield if they wanted to join Sorry Newcastle you're just a bit too far. I am of course only half joking.

 

[12LDA28C]

Was.

Interesting. Can you provide evidence of which line in Europe now has a more intensive pattern of fast IC services, local stopping trains and regular freight?

 

[Sorcerer]

As a Mancunian I think it is time to ditch England and create a new country with Liverpool, and maybe Leeds and Sheffield if they wanted to join Sorry Newcastle you're just a bit too far. I am of course only half joking.

As a Liverpudlian, I never thought I'd find myself standing side-by-side with a Manc.

 

[Snow1964]

has been denied by Downing Street just now.

There is a convention that policy change of important items that have been through Parliament are supposed to be announced in House of Commons

Making significant U turn during a Commons recess (like current one for conferences) will probably get big slapped wrist from Speakers office.

So probably happen but not in Manchester unless wants to make fool of himself.

 

[Deepgreen]

There is a convention that policy change of important items that have been through Parliament are supposed to be announced in House of Commons

Making significant U turn during a Commons recess (like current one for conferences) will probably get big slapped wrist from Speakers office.

So probably happen but not in Manchester unless wants to make fool of himself.

Far too late to avoid that.

 

[Signal Head]

Channel 4 News have stated that 'No. 10' have also decided the southern terminus will be at OOC, so Euston has gone too by the sound of it.

 

[21C101]

As I see it the problem is that all that is actually *needed* is two extra tracks from Euston to Rugby on the account of the existing lines being full due to the amount of freight using it and the decision to build vast new towns at Hemel, MK and Northampton.
While it made sense to build those two new tracks offline to a high standard, the rest of it was a case of grandstanding uneconomic nice to have proposals for political pork barrel reasons.
It will only be a few minutes less via the existing line north of either Lichfield or Crewe (depending where they end it) and there is stacks of capacity north of Lichfield due to the Trent Valley being quadrupled a while back.
I always thought that concentrating all the crack expresses on WCML, MML and ECML onto one set of tracks from Birmingham to Euston was a batty idea operationally speaking. Talk about putting all your eggs in one basket.
A line to either Lichfield or Crewe, and Trent will be very useful and free up a lot of goods paths.
The main real world benefit however is to the commuters of Milton Keynes and Northampton who suffer epic overcrowding due to lack of paths, £100 billion is rather an expensive way of achieving this

Channel 4 News have stated that 'No. 10' have also decided the southern terminus will be at OOC, so Euston has gone too by the sound of it.

If they do that the whole thing will be a bit of a white elephant, just like Bricklayers arms was and for similar reasons.

 

[RailWonderer]

* 9tph if you just use what's there now - three Manchester, three Birmingham, two Liverpool and one Scotland.

And the Chester.

Very good news

But, seriously, what other option is there?

If this country is ever to be seen as returning to sanity of any kind, then HS2 must be completed as originally planned. Unelected Rishi simply can not be seen to have ever held the power to cancel such vital national infrastructure projects.

Very much so, but the post-Beeching network as much as I hate to call it that has barely any of the infrastructure capabilities that were present in the Victorian era, let alone the inter-war period after a few more decades of rail upgrades. Certainly only a fraction of the capacity exists today that once existed and all of that is on the axes that still exist, with a greater implication for connectivity.

The current network is almost completely useless in comparison. If HS2 does not happen, there needs to be a network wide appraisal of which strategic routes are to be reopened an electrified, which of course means just as much if not more compulsory purchasing as HS2.

Rishi claims (incorrectly) that not building any more roads with a >20mph speed limit in Wales is an “attack on motorists” but what he is doing is genuinely an attack on rail passengers, both present and future.

Don’t even get me started on what scrapping HS2 means for the modal shift from air to rail on direct journeys from the north and midlands to continental Europe, avoiding London.

We might see gradual reinstatement in phases in years to come. Think of it as a postponement rather than a cancellation. To me it is a matter of time before some extension will have to be granted as it will be politically more paletable than doing everything all at once.

As a Mancunian I think it is time to ditch England and create a new country with Liverpool, and maybe Leeds and Sheffield if they wanted to join Sorry Newcastle you're just a bit too far. I am of course only half joking.

In fact the UK govt is more a federation of home counties than a govt for all of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

 

[BrianW]

As I see it the problem is that all that is actually *needed* is two extra tracks from Euston to Rugby on the account of the existing lines being full due to the amount of freight using it and the decision to build vast new towns at Hemel, MK and Northampton. While it made sense to build those two new tracks offline to a high standard, the rest of it was a case of grandstanding uneconomic nice to have proposals for political pork barrel reasons. It will only be a few minutes less via the existing line north of either Lichfield or Crewe (depending where they end it) and there is stacks of capacity north of Lichfield due to the Trent Valley being quadrupled a while back. I always thought that concentrating all the crack expresses on WCML, MML and ECML onto one set of tracks from Birmingham to Euston was a batty idea operationally speaking. Talk about putting all your eggs in one basket. A line to either Lichfield or Crewe, and Trent will be very useful and free up a lot of goods paths. The main real world benefit however is to the commuters of Milton Keynes and Northampton who suffer epic overcrowding due to lack of paths, £100 billion is rather an expensive way of achieving this

If they do that the whole thing will be a bit of a white elephant.

I guess (?) the success protracted failure of the WCML 'upgrade' to deliver for Branson, together with the APT, may have made some more disposed to a kind of British English TGV. Chancellor Hunt made reference this morning to costs in France being one-tenth of those for HS2. That elephant in the room (whatever colour elephant) is hard to ignore, however it may be explained. The busting of the budget for GWML electrification didn't help, and is there no 'corporate memory' of its cutting back and replacement with bi-modes? The PR/ comms department at HS2 must be working overtime at present:

HS2 rail project employs 167 PR staff, FOI request reveals - Prolific North

Troubled rail project HS2 has 167 staff in its PR department, costing £8million a year, according to a Freedom of Information request by The Sun.

www.prolificnorth.co.uk

 

[Signal Head]

As I see it the problem is that all that is actually *needed* is two extra tracks from Euston to Rugby on the account of the existing lines being full due to the amount of freight using it and the decision to build vast new towns at Hemel, MK and Northampton.
While it made sense to build those two new tracks offline to a high standard, the rest of it was a case of grandstanding uneconomic nice to have proposals for political pork barrel reasons.
It will only be a few minutes less via the existing line north of either Lichfield or Crewe (depending where they end it) and there is stacks of capacity north of Lichfield due to the Trent Valley being quadrupled a while back.
I always thought that concentrating all the crack expresses on WCML, MML and ECML onto one set of tracks from Birmingham to Euston was a batty idea operationally speaking. Talk about putting all your eggs in one basket.
A line to either Lichfield or Crewe, and Trent will be very useful and free up a lot of goods paths.
The main real world benefit however is to the commuters of Milton Keynes and Northampton who suffer epic overcrowding due to lack of paths, £100 billion is rather an expensive way of achieving this



If they do that the whole thing will be a bit of a white elephant.

I don't disagree.

Re your 'two additional lines to Rugby' - we used to have a railway that could have done that without massive expense. It wouldn't necessarily be high speed, but would it need to be? Shift the freight onto that route and free up paths on the WCML. Oh, and extend all the Pendolinos to 11 car (bit late for that now though).

We look like being left with a hugely expensive white elephant, with limited connectivity, relatively short journeys which won't provide significant time savings, and won't deliver additional capacity where it is probably most needed, all at an eye-watering price.