I can't help thinking that the data point at which the government will lift all restrictions (ie social distancing, rules about who can open when and above all face masks (
) will be two weeks after all adults have been offered their first COVID vaccination.
Given that there are 53.5 million adults in the UK and 17.2 million have already been vaccinated, that leaves 36.3 million still to do.
Even assuming a rate of 300,000 vaccinations per day, which is much less than currently being achieved, this would take us to the end of June. But it is not impossible that we could achieve this target earlier. Assuming a rate of 400,000 vaccinations per day we would hit this target at the end of May.
So I think that whilst Boris Johnson has set a target of the end of July for every adult to be offered their first vaccination, it is entirely possible, indeed probable, that we will hit this target earlier, and thus be able to bring forward the date for the lifting of all restrictions. (
)
I think we are going to see a similar situation with the reopening of hospitality in England, where the data point will be two weeks aftereveryone in priority groups 1- 9 has been offered their first jab. He has brought this forward to the middle of April, but we are currently on course to hit this target just after Easter.
St George's Day in the pub is suddenly looking a lot more likely than it was a couple of weeks ago, and it would have the advantage for Boris Johnson of wrong footing Nicola Sturgeon, who is likely to want to keep pubs in Scotland closed for as long as possible.