Step 3 confirmed for 17th May

[bramling]

It feels like the last 5 weeks have been semi-normal.

From tomorrow it's going to feel somewhere between two-thirds and three-quarters normal.

Once everything is open and no masks are mandated, it'll feel 90% normal.

I base this purely on what the majority of the public saw in daily life pre-COVID.

Yes my two big bugbears for the last few weeks have been the weather, and hotels not being open.

Having been off work for a bit, I was hoping to maximise the opportunity for day trips, and from this weekend some slightly longer trips staying over for a night or two. The current weather has totally scuppered this. We did try something last week, and it was a bit of a shambles, so won’t be doing anything further until there’s at least some improvement in the weather - though hotels now being open does make planning a bit easier.

Mask use seems to have dropped off a cliff in recent days.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

IMHO the June 21st date will change to September. For it to happen in June it needs all over 18s to have been offered a jab

Highest number of 1st doses administered yesterday since 30th March tells me they will get the over 18's done by end of July as planned maybe earlier.

It needs 85% to be vaccinated to get the spread low enough for the rest to be considered protected. I'm expecting to be jabbed every 6 months and wearing masks for another 4 years. If that's the price of normality I don't mind

They originally said 70% was target to induce herd immunity they are way above that in all age groups so virus will be naturally moderated.

BoJo had to lay down a marker on Friday before the media and opposition got on his case over the Indian variant but as long as people just keep within Step 3 requirements we will get to Step 4. Bigger issue is what Step 4 is going to look like and they've given themselves flexibility here to claim the political success without changing a lot more.

Still feel they should use local measures like Scotland to manage outbreaks as in Bolton tomorrow you are allowed household mixing which could further drive up cases but lest see what NHS stats tell us tomorrow on admissions in the area.

 

[bramling]

Highest number of 1st doses administered yesterday since 30th March tells me they will get the over 18's done by end of July as planned maybe earlier.

They originally said 70% was target to induce herd immunity they are way above that in all age groups so virus will be naturally moderated.

BoJo had to lay down a marker on Friday before the media and opposition got on his case over the Indian variant but as long as people just keep within Step 3 requirements we will get to Step 4. Bigger issue is what Step 4 is going to look like and they've given themselves flexibility here to claim the political success without changing a lot more.

Still feel they should use local measures like Scotland to manage outbreaks as in Bolton tomorrow you are allowed household mixing which could further drive up cases but lest see what NHS stats tell us tomorrow on admissions in the area.

I think the difficulty at the moment is he’s being castigated for not putting India on the red list sooner. What happens next will probably depend on how much of a political issue that becomes.

Certainly word on the street does seem to by “why on earth do we have all these restrictions yet people have been able to fly back from there?”.

 

[island]

Incidentally, I wonder if you agree with my understanding of the regulations, which is that there is no ability to enforce the taking of a day 8 test. This is because in the section describing the circumstances under which a day 8 test is to be undertaken, it indicates that for—


https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/568 - Paragraph 10. (2) (b).

This indicates that you can take the test any time you like from day 8, with no upper limit, which could include deferring it indefinitely. I don’t see any reference to “as soon as reasonably practicable” (there is, by contrast, for offshore installation workers). But the regulations are very long indeed - it’s possible I’ve missed something!

Hmm. I suppose if one were prosecuted and the test was still untaken by the time the court date rolled around, the magistrates would look on the matter disfavourably. But it does seem open to someone to take it quite some time after day 8 and thereby “cure the breach”, as it were.

Failing to take the day 8 test has the more practical impact of extending one’s self-isolation period by, if memory serves, an extra four days.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I think the difficulty at the moment is he’s being castigated for not putting India on the red list sooner. What happens next will probably depend on how much of a political issue that becomes.

Certainly word on the street does seem to by “why on earth do we have all these restrictions yet people have been able to fly back from there?”.

Given there mantra was countries would be added to the Red list as soon as there is sign of outbreak why they always wait a few days is beyond me I have to agree and happy to see them challenged over that.

That said if the vaccine continues to show good efficacy, as early data is suggesting (over 70's case rate hardly changed in Bolton over the last few weeks), against Indian variant, as well as others, this ought to reinforce confidence that we have sufficient immunity to keep going with roadmap. However, if Bolton and other areas show continued growth they should impose local restrictions rather than curtail the entire populations activities.

 

[philosopher]

I think the difficulty at the moment is he’s being castigated for not putting India on the red list sooner. What happens next will probably depend on how much of a political issue that becomes.

Certainly word on the street does seem to by “why on earth do we have all these restrictions yet people have been able to fly back from there?”.

If the India variant does pose to be a big problem and results in the June 21st easing being delayed then I reckon Boris will be in deep trouble, in fact I suspect it will become the deepest crisis of his premiership. Rightly or wrongly I suspect he will be blamed for a new wave and lengthening of the restrictions because he delayed putting India on the red list for the sake of a trade summit. Those on both sides of the argument will have reason to be very annoyed.

 

[brad465]

If the India variant does pose to be a big problem and results in the June 21st easing being delayed then I reckon Boris will be in deep trouble, in fact I suspect it will become the deepest crisis of his premiership. Rightly or wrongly I suspect he will be blamed for a new wave and lengthening of the restrictions because he delayed putting India on the red list for the sake of trade summit. Those on both sides of the argument will have reason to be very annoyed.

Perhaps on top of this were that to materialise, in 10 days Dominic Cummings is meant to be giving evidence to MPs about the Government's pandemic handling during his time as Johnson's advisor; if this causes enough of a stir Johnson will be under deep pressure not to delay the June easement to try and cover/recover damage if Cummings has exposed a lot in the run-up.

 

[bramling]

If the India variant does pose to be a big problem and results in the June 21st easing being delayed then I reckon Boris will be in deep trouble, in fact I suspect it will become the deepest crisis of his premiership. Rightly or wrongly I suspect he will be blamed for a new wave and lengthening of the restrictions because he delayed putting India on the red list for the sake of a trade summit. Those on both sides of the argument will have reason to be very annoyed.

I agree it will be a problem. In reality I think the whole India thing is rather overblown, but politically it's a big problem as it looks highly dithersome.

Any reversal of May's easements, especially hotels, will also be a massive problem.

 

[joncombe]

This feels like Deja Vu of Christmas. Just as Boris was about to allow households to meet inside (albeit only for a few days at Christmas), SAGE started making a fuss about the "Kent Variant" and got Boris to cancel it. Seems they are now doing the same about the Indian variant. Fortunately it seems Boris hasn't caved into their demands this time, despite SAGE being in a spin about it all weekend. I hope he doesn't cave into the inevitable pressure next week and reverse it.

 

[VauxhallandI]

If only this Johnson character was as keen to clear out SAGE as he is to clearing our the Civil Service and the BBC we’d be in a better place.

 

[yorkie]

...That said if the vaccine continues to show good efficacy, as early data is suggesting (over 70's case rate hardly changed in Bolton over the last few weeks), against Indian variant, as well as others, ..

The only question mark over the vaccines is whether they remain as effective at reducing infections, infectiousness, and mild symptoms.

What really matters is whether the mutations in any of the variants cause the virus to evade the vaccine to the extent that the vaccines no longer protect against severe disease; there is no evidence this is happening.

T-cells are particularly important in fighting Sars-CoV-2; the T cell epitopes are not changing in any of the variants.

Also, talk of "increased infectiousness" is misleading; the virus is adapting for humans through natural selection. The so-called "variants of concern" contain mutations (which typically occur independently in multiple lineages across the globe) which increase the fitness of the virus.

Some people probably do understand this, but use hyperbolic terms in order to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) while others lack the understanding and just like to spread FUD when they don't understand what they are talking about.

People who make nonsense claims, such as claiming this is a new "strain" or that the vaccines are "ineffective" should be ignored and treated with the contempt they deserve.

 

[MikeWM]

Mask use seems to have dropped off a cliff in recent days.

I'd definitely agree with that. I've seen a clear trend for a few weeks now - there's a lot more people not wearing one at all, a lot more people wearing lanyards, and those who are wearing them are far less likely to be wearing one 'properly'. Fingers crossed we're (finally) getting to a tipping point.

 

[bramling]

I'd definitely agree with that. I've seen a clear trend for a few weeks now - there's a lot more people not wearing one at all, a lot more people wearing lanyards, and those who are wearing them are far less likely to be wearing one 'properly'. Fingers crossed we're (finally) getting to a tipping point.

It might have just been the Sunday effect, however on our very brief train journey I'd say half of all people we saw (including staff) weren't wearing a mask at all, and of the remainder a considerable number were very low down on the chin, and - perhaps most encouragingly - no one seemed to be batting an eyelid. Only a very brief experience mind.

 

[MikeWM]

Very much an if, but some of us, myself included, have formed the opinion that the disease itself is such low-risk that we will be passing on the vaccination. I expect everyone to "act normal" around me.

Well, same here. For various reasons I'm not intending to be vaccinated (despite the 17 (!) text messages I've now had about it), as I've mentioned on here from time to time.

I suppose one of the very few positive things that could be said for the UK government's response to the whole thing is that, unlike many other countries (Israel, Germany, Denmark, Ireland, USA) they so far haven't tried to impose different rules depending on whether you're vaccinated or not.

However, I fear we need to wait and see what Mr Gove's reviews are going to say in the next few weeks to see if we maintain that approach.

And one of the limits on the current enabling Act is here

This is indeed the case. However, I expect some primary legislation fairly soon, as the government have indicated they are likely to do at least two things that will require it:

- To require staff in care homes to be vaccinated
- To ban 'essential' shops etc. from checking vaccine status as a condition of entry

Anything else they want to do could be lumped in with that new primary legislation. I was a little surprised there wasn't something along those lines in the Queen's Speech last week, but it could be attached to some other legislation instead.

 

[Bikeman78]

The only question mark over the vaccines is whether they remain as effective at reducing infections, infectiousness, and mild symptoms.

What really matters is whether the mutations in any of the variants cause the virus to evade the vaccine to the extent that the vaccines no longer protect against severe disease; there is no evidence this is happening.

T-cells are particularly important in fighting Sars-CoV-2; the T cell epitopes are not changing in any of the variants.

Also, talk of "increased infectiousness" is misleading; the virus is adapting for humans through natural selection. The so-called "variants of concern" contain mutations (which typically occur independently in multiple lineages across the globe) which increase the fitness of the virus.

Some people probably do understand this, but use hyperbolic terms in order to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) while others lack the understanding and just like to spread FUD when they don't understand what they are talking about.

People who make nonsense claims, such as claiming this is a new "strain" or that the vaccines are "ineffective" should be ignored and treated with the contempt they deserve.

I think we need to remember that the world got over Spanish flu without a vaccine. No doubt it mutated but it didn't keep reinfecting people that had already caught it and survived. Why would this virus be any different?

 

[Glenn1969]

Right now we have still only fully vaccinated (2 doses) less than 40% of the population and 1 dose hasn't quite got to 70%. The trouble in the NW is the variant is spreading through unvaccinated sections of the population and people between 35 and 55 are presenting at hospitals in Bolton and Blackburn. As the leader of Bolton Council said , imposing local shutdowns will mean people driving to other areas

 

[kristiang85]

I think we need to remember that the world got over Spanish flu without a vaccine. No doubt it mutated but it didn't keep reinfecting people that had already caught it and survived. Why would this virus be any different?

They didn't have rolling TV news and social media back then... That's the main difference.

 

[778]

Yes my two big bugbears for the last few weeks have been the weather, and hotels not being open.

Having been off work for a bit, I was hoping to maximise the opportunity for day trips, and from this weekend some slightly longer trips staying over for a night or two. The current weather has totally scuppered this. We did try something last week, and it was a bit of a shambles, so won’t be doing anything further until there’s at least some improvement in the weather - though hotels now being open does make planning a bit easier.

Mask use seems to have dropped off a cliff in recent days.

Do you think if the weather would have been better for the last two months, cases would be even lower? Covid spreads much more in colder condtions (people spending more time outside, open windows etc), meaning that because of the below average spring we are having (coldest April since 1986, possibly the coldest May since 1996), cases are not falling as much as this time last year, when the weather was much warmer.

Also, did anyone see the FA cup final. Hardly anyone in the crowd wearing masks, despite them being mandatory.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

Right now we have still only fully vaccinated (2 doses) less than 40% of the population and 1 dose hasn't quite got to 70%. The trouble in the NW is the variant is spreading through unvaccinated sections of the population and people between 35 and 55 are presenting at hospitals in Bolton and Blackburn. As the leader of Bolton Council said , imposing local shutdowns will mean people driving to other areas

Play a different record for Pete's sake

 

[VauxhallandI]

Right now we have still only fully vaccinated (2 doses) less than 40% of the population and 1 dose hasn't quite got to 70%. The trouble in the NW is the variant is spreading through unvaccinated sections of the population and people between 35 and 55 are presenting at hospitals in Bolton and Blackburn. As the leader of Bolton Council said , imposing local shutdowns will mean people driving to other areas

What are your stats on adults and then on vulnerable adults, might give you a proper perspective rather than counting babies etc in your count?

Might help with your fear

 

[Smidster]

What are your stats on adults and then on vulnerable adults, might give you a proper perspective rather than counting babies etc in your count?

Might help with your fear

In fairness they are the "proportion of adults" numbers - It equates to around 55% of the total population.

The JVCI groups are standing at around 90%.

Good luck to all businesses reopening today and strange, but awesome, to think that in just 5 weeks most of the rules that have governed our existence for so long could be gone.

 

[Darandio]

Right now we have still only fully vaccinated (2 doses) less than 40% of the population and 1 dose hasn't quite got to 70%. The trouble in the NW is the variant is spreading through unvaccinated sections of the population and people between 35 and 55 are presenting at hospitals in Bolton and Blackburn. As the leader of Bolton Council said , imposing local shutdowns will mean people driving to other areas

And many of those presenting in those areas are unvaccinated despite being eligible. It's their choice if they don't want to be vaccinated and there are some who fall into that category on this very forum but we shouldn't be waiting for them.

 

[VauxhallandI]

In fairness they are the "proportion of adults" numbers - It equates to around 55% of the total population.

The JVCI groups are standing at around 90%.

Good luck to all businesses reopening today and strange, but awesome, to think that in just 5 weeks most of the rules that have governed our existence for so long could be gone.

Yes the first dose numbers eased dramatically didn’t they, I got done near the peak per day numbers and the total of adults number hasn’t gone up too much since then.

The 90% number is key. In effect we are almost at the stage of chasing the impossible when it comes to % of people that die from an infection. Well beyond any rational thought deployed for any other risk in history?

 

[YorkshireBear]

Great walk to the station this morning looking at staff getting pubs, cafes and restaurants ready. Trains a step up busier this morning too. Hoping to get to the pub tommorow.

 

[Bald Rick]

Also, did anyone see the FA cup final. Hardly anyone in the crowd wearing masks, despite them being mandatory.

I was surprised how few people didn’t have a mask on. The sections of the crowd I saw almost everyone had a covering.

 

[westv]

I was surprised how few people didn’t have a mask on. The sections of the crowd I saw almost everyone had a covering.

I thought they weren't required at Wembley - or did I misread that?

 

[Ianno87]

Great walk to the station this morning looking at staff getting pubs, cafes and restaurants ready. Trains a step up busier this morning too. Hoping to get to the pub tommorow.

Popped into Costa Coffee this morning for my fix. Nice to see people sat inside again!

 

[brad465]

In fairness they are the "proportion of adults" numbers - It equates to around 55% of the total population.

The JVCI groups are standing at around 90%.

Good luck to all businesses reopening today and strange, but awesome, to think that in just 5 weeks most of the rules that have governed our existence for so long could be gone.

Given how much of a step that will be, it almost feels to good to be true, and whether it happens on time or not, I would not be surprised if SAGE go into overdrive in the run up to then.

 

[ChrisC]

Yes my two big bugbears for the last few weeks have been the weather, and hotels not being open.

Having been off work for a bit, I was hoping to maximise the opportunity for day trips, and from this weekend some slightly longer trips staying over for a night or two. The current weather has totally scuppered this. We did try something last week, and it was a bit of a shambles, so won’t be doing anything further until there’s at least some improvement in the weather - though hotels now being open does make planning a bit easier.

Mask use seems to have dropped off a cliff in recent days.

I feel exactly the same. The weather has been very unsettled since the beginning of this month but March and April, although cold, were very dry and sunny in most parts of the country. Having not been able to stay any nights away from home since last October I found it very frustrating that hotels were not open during March and April during this period of dry weather.

In addition to your two bugbears of the weather and hotels being closed I would also add not being able to go inside anywhere for food and drink. Even on day trips it was very inconvenient not being able to go inside anywhere to eat, and before serving meals outside was permitted it was even worse.

When I went away a couple of times last summer I found it ok eating in the hotel where I was staying, but sometimes found it a bit difficult with restricted numbers through social distancing, to find other places to eat during the day or as an alternative for an evening meal. Travelling on my own did not help because I felt quite guilty as a single person taking up a whole table and socially distanced space in a restaurant or pub. These businesses really needed every bit of trade they could get and I was taking up space that a family group could use. I’ve booked a few days away next week near Gloucester and in addition to better weather I’m also hoping that finding places to eat will be a bit easier than last summer.

 

[dk1]

Popped into Costa Coffee this morning for my fix. Nice to see people sat inside again!

I'm in Spoons after my swim. Ironically it wouldnt be too bad sitting outside today..