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Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

kristiang85

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Flu season hasn’t started yet has it? That could be fun!

The WHO has a great interactive tool for looking at flu trends by country and timespan: https://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=7

If you put in, e.g., the UK from 2010 to present, you can see it was barely registered last year.

Also each year it's around week 40 that flu cases start rising. That's the first week of October. So we should know pretty soon if flu is going to be an issue this year.

Edit: If you look up Australia, it seems they have now missed two flu seasons. So I wouldn't bet against it happening here.
 
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Noticed a few friends (not all of them know each other, incidentally) on Facebook this morning posting: "Feel Awful, but it's not Covid" with a picture of a test, so similar in the wording and picture that I initially thought this was one of those challenge things that go round FB :lol:
 

kristiang85

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Noticed a few friends (not all of them know each other, incidentally) on Facebook this morning posting: "Feel Awful, but it's not Covid" with a picture of a test, so similar in the wording and picture that I initially thought this was one of those challenge things that go round FB :lol:

Interestingly, I was having a conversation with a friend yesterday and we wondered if the proliferation of all these non COVID colds was due to this obsession with covid testing. Because people are getting coughs and sniffles, but testing themselves and as its not covid they think "great, I can go out".

In the old days many would say "I've got a bad cold, I should probably give tonight a miss as I don't want to give it to you" and rely on their bodies telling them something is wrong rather than these tests.
 

Bald Rick

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Interestingly, I was having a conversation with a friend yesterday and we wondered if the proliferation of all these non COVID colds was due to this obsession with covid testing. Because people are getting coughs and sniffles, but testing themselves and as its not covid they think "great, I can go out".

In the old days many would say "I've got a bad cold, I should probably give tonight a miss as I don't want to give it to you" and rely on their bodies telling them something is wrong rather than these tests.

My experience is the opposite. Because of the Covid experience, many people are now more aware of how viruses can be transmitted, and are less likely to go about normal business if they knowingly have a heavy cold.

I think the ‘proliferation’ of colds is also because it’s been so long since most people have had one, they forget how common they are. I used to get two or three per winter season, until I got myself fit and don’t have them any more (that statement is a real fate-tempter....)
 

DannyMich2018

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On the Gov uk Dashboard they state how many people have had 1st and 2nd vaccines but still nothing about how many have had 3rd (booster) vaccines. I wonder if this will be added? There's also about 3.5 million adults (18+) who've still not had a 2nd one yet, presumably who don't want a 2nd one as they've long since been offered one. My 18 year old nephew had his 2nd at least 6 weeks ago.
 

roversfan2001

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On the Gov uk Dashboard they state how many people have had 1st and 2nd vaccines but still nothing about how many have had 3rd (booster) vaccines. I wonder if this will be added? There's also about 3.5 million adults (18+) who've still not had a 2nd one yet, presumably who don't want a 2nd one as they've long since been offered one. My 18 year old nephew had his 2nd at least 6 weeks ago.
Them showing how many people have had a booster jab will just further encourage the terminally terrified to push for booster jabs for all.
 
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On the Gov uk Dashboard they state how many people have had 1st and 2nd vaccines but still nothing about how many have had 3rd (booster) vaccines. I wonder if this will be added? There's also about 3.5 million adults (18+) who've still not had a 2nd one yet, presumably who don't want a 2nd one as they've long since been offered one. My 18 year old nephew had his 2nd at least 6 weeks ago.

Third doses and booster jabs are different. (Although a booster is always going to be a third jab here as we’re not doing any single dose vaccines yet.)

Quite how they’ll differentiate them in reports I don’t know.

About half a million people are eligible for a third dose due to being immunocompromised at or around the time of their first or second vaccine. They’re then expected to be eligible for a booster (fourth) jab six months after that, though it has yet to be confirmed.
 

johntea

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I had a booster jab yesterday (Pfizer although for some reason or another now branded 'Comirnaty') and a flu jab at the same time in the other arm as I work in the NHS
 

Bantamzen

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I haven't read up about it much, but supposing it is true that immunity from vaccines wanes after 6-9 months: then as the vulnerable in the UK were vaccinated between January to March 2021, now is the right time to "fret about 3rd doses". The vulnerable in Scandinavia and Australia were on average vaccinated several months later so if they want to give people a 3rd dose it would happen later on.

Since masks are not required in England, is there a particular reason why airlines still make them compulsory on domestic flights within England?
(In response to a post in the Scandinavian Flights thread, done here to avoid going off topic there)

This so-called waning is almost certainly because our bodies do not produce antibodies forever. Once a infection is beaten back, antibody production naturally starts to fall back if no further infection is detected. This is true of petty much all infections. However this does not mean that immunity wains, it just changes how the body responds to a new subsequent infection. Antibodies are not the only fruit in the equation, we produce memory cells that can both attack the virus as it attempted to reproduce itself in our cells, and restart antibody production as required. Furthermore it is widely accepted that exposure to the virus post vaccination actually works better than boosters, as the initial cell memory from the vaccine allows the body to mitigate the risk of serious illness quickly, whilst also exposing the immune system to the whole, live virus allowing it to improve those memory cells. And all of this is known to science.

Which makes it all the more baffling why some experts and scientists are going down the vaccine effectiveness waning road so early. I can understand why some if the pharmaceutical companies are, there's a potential market worth hundreds of billions to chase down (although the makers of AZ are still quite adamant that boosters for all are not needed). And maybe there's the answer to the question above, experts and scientists are only human and if some representative of Pfizer or other major company has been waving a big brown envelope stuffed with money in front of them, well you work it out.
 
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Snow1964

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Third doses and booster jabs are different. (Although a booster is always going to be a third jab here as we’re not doing any single dose vaccines yet.)

Quite how they’ll differentiate them in reports I don’t know.

About half a million people are eligible for a third dose due to being immunocompromised at or around the time of their first or second vaccine. They’re then expected to be eligible for a booster (fourth) jab six months after that, though it has yet to be confirmed.

Strangely when my wife had her third jab, it was described as a third primary, not a booster. Apparently there are no boosters yet in UK, it was a Pfizer, previous two were Astra Zeneca

The third primary is now available to anyone over 50, at least 6 months after jab 2 (and many people in 60s had jab 2 in May, many of those in 50s had jab 2 in June) so will be eligible in a few weeks for jab 3

Heard from a relative that a cousin hasn’t had any jabs, stupidly thought he would be ok as had lots of mild illnesses and always been ok, and he caught it off his children who picked it up at school. it’s his own fault all the oldies are now treating him like a leper, and doesn’t want him to visit them anymore (they probably remember illnesses from childhood, and their consequences that rest of us don’t understand).
 
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Bantamzen

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Heard from a relative that a cousin hasn’t had any jabs, stupidly thought he would be ok as had lots of mild illnesses and always been ok, and he caught it off his children who picked it up at school. it’s his own fault all the oldies are now treating him like a leper, and doesn’t want him to visit them anymore (they probably remember illnesses from childhood, and their consequences that rest of us don’t understand).
If that were my family serious words would be had. No matter what decisions people make about the vaccines, there is no justification to treat people, especially family members like a leper. This whole blame game is getting beyond a joke now, it is nobody's fault that they got this or any other virus, nobody's. Viruses spread, that's what they do. Vaccines are a personal choice, and are there to offer protection for the person having them. If your family are vaccinated, then the risk to them is greatly reduced, and so there is no need to treat anyone like that. And this comes from someone whose younger sister died at the age of 30 through influenza, so I have personal experience in all of this.

I hate how toxic this whole thing has become. I genuinely fear for humanity.
 

DustyBin

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If that were my family serious words would be had. No matter what decisions people make about the vaccines, there is no justification to treat people, especially family members like a leper. This whole blame game is getting beyond a joke now, it is nobody's fault that they got this or any other virus, nobody's. Viruses spread, that's what they do. Vaccines are a personal choice, and are there to offer protection for the person having them. If your family are vaccinated, then the risk to them is greatly reduced, and so there is no need to treat anyone like that. And this comes from someone whose younger sister died at the age of 30 through influenza, so I have personal experience in all of this.

I hate how toxic this whole thing has become. I genuinely fear for humanity.

It’s crazy isn’t it. The thing is, if you’ve caught and recovered from covid you know you have a good immune response (better than purely vaccine induced?) so why ostracise somebody? Unless it’s a case of “punishing” them for choosing not to get vaccinated in the first place, in which case people need to take a long hard look at themselves IMO.
 

Bantamzen

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It’s crazy isn’t it. The thing is, if you’ve caught and recovered from covid you know you have a good immune response (better than purely vaccine induced?) so why ostracise somebody? Unless it’s a case of “punishing” them for choosing not to get vaccinated in the first place, in which case people need to take a long hard look at themselves IMO.
It is, and it makes me seriously angry these days. The fault lies entirely with politicians and their pet experts who have spent the last 18 months trying to convince us that the fault lies with the next person, nothing to do with their underfunding the NHS, or wasting hundreds of millions on dodgy PPE contracts for gear we couldn't use. Nope its been the fault of the Chinese, football fans, race goers, people working during lockdown, people going outside during lockdown, beach goers, walkers, students, schoolkids, people with families, ethnic groups, Indian restaurants, kids going to raves, people not wearing masks everywhere, people going abroad, and now we are onto people yet to have a vaccine. Its only a matter of time before cats & dogs are added to the official list of "Karen's them wot to blame" list.

Society is literally allowing itself to be torn apart through blame culture, something that was going on way before the pandemic. However covid has given a serious boost to this momentum, making the situation even worse. So many people now are looking to blame someone else to the point that science just gets ignored completely. Following the science? Even some scientists seem to have given up on it! Dark days indeed.
 

yorksrob

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It’s crazy isn’t it. The thing is, if you’ve caught and recovered from covid you know you have a good immune response (better than purely vaccine induced?) so why ostracise somebody? Unless it’s a case of “punishing” them for choosing not to get vaccinated in the first place, in which case people need to take a long hard look at themselves IMO.

From what I've read, natural immunity on its own isn't as effective as vaccine induced immunity on its own. However natural plus vaccine induced immunity seems to be better than both.
 

Bantamzen

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From what I've read, natural immunity on its own isn't as effective as vaccine induced immunity on its own. However natural plus vaccine induced immunity seems to be better than both.
I've often wondered about this, because at the end of the day vaccines work by exposing the immune system to part or all of the virus's proteins. Exposure to the virus itself exposes the immune system to all of the virus's proteins, so I would expect that in a healthy & functional immune system both would net similar results, i.e. short term antibody production with long term B & T cell production following for future infections. Where vaccines are preferable is that they don't necessarily induce as severe side effects as full infection with a viable viral load for the healthy, and of course much more preferable for people with compromised immune systems. Of course exposure to the vaccine then the viable virus will allow the system to build initial protection post vaccine, with further re-enforcement following exposure to the virus.
 

kez19

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If that were my family serious words would be had. No matter what decisions people make about the vaccines, there is no justification to treat people, especially family members like a leper. This whole blame game is getting beyond a joke now, it is nobody's fault that they got this or any other virus, nobody's. Viruses spread, that's what they do. Vaccines are a personal choice, and are there to offer protection for the person having them. If your family are vaccinated, then the risk to them is greatly reduced, and so there is no need to treat anyone like that. And this comes from someone whose younger sister died at the age of 30 through influenza, so I have personal experience in all of this.

I hate how toxic this whole thing has become. I genuinely fear for humanity.

I agree on the toxicity this has become but what annoys me is the rampant fear of blaming the unvaccinated in general - that’s the equivalent then to me choosing not to get the flu jab yearly because then I’m unvaccinated? It’s the media hysteria that’s causing all this but yet no one is taking responsibility for it, it’s been allowed to happen. I do wonder and have said previously is are the governments devolved nations allowing certain broadcasters to get away with “misinformation” to an extent to then pull the rug/a blow to them to come crashing down or be further regulated? I’m assuming that the governments are funding these channels with their ads and once funding goes the tables turn on media? It’s just a thought as if people haven’t realised that the governments praise the likes of NHS and other sections for so long to then throw them under?
 

DustyBin

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From what I've read, natural immunity on its own isn't as effective as vaccine induced immunity on its own. However natural plus vaccine induced immunity seems to be better than both.

My take on it having read a number of sources is that, in simple terms, natural immunity is as good (and possibly better) than vaccine induced but more risky. @Bantamzen has explained about exposure to part vs whole proteins so I won’t repeat the point. I should add that this is my interpretation of the information available; for obvious reasons it’s not something widely publicised as it has the potential to raise awkward/unwelcome questions.
 

bspahh

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My take on it having read a number of sources is that, in simple terms, natural immunity is as good (and possibly better) than vaccine induced but more risky. @Bantamzen has explained about exposure to part vs whole proteins so I won’t repeat the point. I should add that this is my interpretation of the information available; for obvious reasons it’s not something widely publicised as it has the potential to raise awkward/unwelcome questions.
The human immune system has evolved as a balance between being able to clear up any foreign antigen, and being knocked out with a fever as your body is taken over by the immune system running flat out.

Part of this balance is achieved by variation between the different people. On an evolutionary timescale, what matters is getting a breeding population to survive, even if some people die because their immune system doesn't clear up of the infection. Other people might be knocked out by a strong immune response and not be able to get enough to eat. This is where evolutionary biology meets social economics.
 

MikeWM

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I've often wondered about this, because at the end of the day vaccines work by exposing the immune system to part or all of the virus's proteins. Exposure to the virus itself exposes the immune system to all of the virus's proteins, so I would expect that in a healthy & functional immune system both would net similar results, i.e. short term antibody production with long term B & T cell production following for future infections. Where vaccines are preferable is that they don't necessarily induce as severe side effects as full infection with a viable viral load for the healthy, and of course much more preferable for people with compromised immune systems. Of course exposure to the vaccine then the viable virus will allow the system to build initial protection post vaccine, with further re-enforcement following exposure to the virus.

There's an interesting question as to whether the current vaccines - which basically concentrate on the 'spike' protein - can give as good immunity as being exposed to the entire virus, as you suggest. Or indeed whether concentrating on the spike makes it less likely to work if/when mutations happen, and/or whether it makes the possibility of ADE more likely.

Of course the 'inactivated entire virus' vaccine from Valneva, which a lot of 'vaccine hesitant' people were more favourable towards than the current vaccines because the approach is more tried-and-tested, doesn't seem to hold any interest anymore from the UK Government, which is rather odd. I strongly suspect if that was available it would increase uptake to at least some degree.
 

Bikeman78

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Heard from a relative that a cousin hasn’t had any jabs, stupidly thought he would be ok as had lots of mild illnesses and always been ok, and he caught it off his children who picked it up at school. it’s his own fault all the oldies are now treating him like a leper, and doesn’t want him to visit them anymore (they probably remember illnesses from childhood, and their consequences that rest of us don’t understand).
That is illogical. If your cousin has had it and survived then he probably has the best immunity possible. He won't still be infectious now.

Two of my unvaccinated colleagues caught it, felt rough for a week and got better. They don't appear to be treated any differently to other people in the office.
 

liam456

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Of course the 'inactivated entire virus' vaccine from Valneva, which a lot of 'vaccine hesitant' people were more favourable towards than the current vaccines because the approach is more tried-and-tested, doesn't seem to hold any interest anymore from the UK Government, which is rather odd. I strongly suspect if that was available it would increase uptake to at least some degree.

Very sad about that Valneva vaccine, given I'm on their clinical trial. Their latest press release had some non-committal words saying that it showed good results, but I guess they can't have been great considering the cancellation of the order and Sajid Javid's comments about it not getting approval when it all happened.

Through my rigorous testing methodology, I can come to a similar conclusion as the Valneva vaccine gave me very minor side effects but my Pfizer one I took on Saturday absolutely ruined me the following day. Cast-iron proof there! :lol:

Vaccine certification is also a nightmare, and 4 months after my second trial jab it's still not sorted. :rolleyes:
 
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Strangely when my wife had her third jab, it was described as a third primary, not a booster. Apparently there are no boosters yet in UK, it was a Pfizer, previous two were Astra Zeneca

The third primary is now available to anyone over 50, at least 6 months after jab 2 (and many people in 60s had jab 2 in May, many of those in 50s had jab 2 in June) so will be eligible in a few weeks for jab 3

That’s the wrong way around. Boosters are for the over 50s etc, six months after second dose (currently; they might change it).

Both boosters and third primary doses are mRNA (unless allergic etc), with preference for Pfizer. Pfizer is exactly the same whether a booster or third primary, but Moderna differs — it’s a full dose when a third primary but only half a dose when a booster.

There is chatter online that the computer software still can’t record third primary doses yet, so everything is going down as a booster and there’ll be a “clean up” done when the computer software is sorted. I can’t yet see mine on the NHS app to verify either way — I had a third primary this week.

To see who qualifies for the third primary dose check The Green Book, chapter 14a, pages 20 and 21. There are still medical professionals who don’t understand the criteria and people are having a horrendous time getting these. It’s about who was immunocompromised at the time of jab 1 or jab 2; if someone is immunocompromised right now and wasn’t when they had their first jabs then they get a booster instead.
 

Bantamzen

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That’s the wrong way around. Boosters are for the over 50s etc, six months after second dose (currently; they might change it).

Both boosters and third primary doses are mRNA (unless allergic etc), with preference for Pfizer. Pfizer is exactly the same whether a booster or third primary, but Moderna differs — it’s a full dose when a third primary but only half a dose when a booster.

There is chatter online that the computer software still can’t record third primary doses yet, so everything is going down as a booster and there’ll be a “clean up” done when the computer software is sorted. I can’t yet see mine on the NHS app to verify either way — I had a third primary this week.

To see who qualifies for the third primary dose check The Green Book, chapter 14a, pages 20 and 21. There are still medical professionals who don’t understand the criteria and people are having a horrendous time getting these. It’s about who was immunocompromised at the time of jab 1 or jab 2; if someone is immunocompromised right now and wasn’t when they had their first jabs then they get a booster instead.
Wait? What? Third primary? Where has this notion come from? When these two dose vaccines were developed it was widely understood that two would be all for most, with the most vulnerable perhaps needing boosters. Talk of a third primary is very disconcerting, not only because witless politicians will soon latch onto it, but also because this sounds more & more like a pharma cash cow.
 

DustyBin

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Wait? What? Third primary? Where has this notion come from? When these two dose vaccines were developed it was widely understood that two would be all for most, with the most vulnerable perhaps needing boosters. Talk of a third primary is very disconcerting, not only because witless politicians will soon latch onto it, but also because this sounds more & more like a pharma cash cow.

I fully expect everybody to be offered a third dose, be it a booster or third primary, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to imagine a fourth as well. Beyond that who knows. I may be wrong of course but it looks to me like that’s where we’re heading. What concerns me more is the threat of sanctions being imposed for non-compliance as I don’t think we’re out of woods in regard to vaccine passports yet.
 

Smidster

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Wait? What? Third primary? Where has this notion come from? When these two dose vaccines were developed it was widely understood that two would be all for most, with the most vulnerable perhaps needing boosters. Talk of a third primary is very disconcerting, not only because witless politicians will soon latch onto it, but also because this sounds more & more like a pharma cash cow.
To be honest the evidence is starting to look like this might actually be a 3 dose vaccine by default - at least that could be the inference from the data earlier this week.

I would then expect an annual booster similar to annual flu vaccines focussed on the most vulnerable.
 

Bantamzen

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I fully expect everybody to be offered a third dose, be it a booster or third primary, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to imagine a fourth as well. Beyond that who knows. I may be wrong of course but it looks to me like that’s where we’re heading. What concerns me more is the threat of sanctions being imposed for non-compliance as I don’t think we’re out of woods in regard to vaccine passports yet.
Them being boosters I have no problem with, they would be voluntary and thus not needing passports or restrictions to encourage them. But when we start talking in terms of third primary then this will start to make the case for the aforementioned stronger in the minds of politicians & their pet experts.

To be honest the evidence is starting to look like this might actually be a 3 dose vaccine by default - at least that could be the inference from the data earlier this week.

I would then expect an annual booster similar to annual flu vaccines focussed on the most vulnerable.
Not according to the research done by the makers of the AZ vaccine. They are fairly assured that the 2 doses are more than enough for all but the most vulnerable. As I said earlier, this is starting to look like another money making scheme.
 
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The “third primary dose” is only for a very small number of highly immune compromised people (about half a million) who were unlikely to have made a full response to the first two vaccines. It’s for people with blood cancer, who had a stem cell transplant recently, who were on or recently on chemotherapy, on high dose steroids etc. Link: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-the-green-book-chapter-14a — pages 20 and 21 are what you want. I think some of you are panicking and over reacting. It’s actually quite likely that in time the third primary dose will be offered to fewer people than now, once they have more data to work out who actually needs it.
 

Bantamzen

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The “third primary dose” is only for a very small number of highly immune compromised people (about half a million) who were unlikely to have made a full response to the first two vaccines. It’s for people with blood cancer, who had a stem cell transplant recently, who were on or recently on chemotherapy, on high dose steroids etc. Link: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-the-green-book-chapter-14a — pages 20 and 21 are what you want. I think some of you are panicking and over reacting. It’s actually quite likely that in time the third primary dose will be offered to fewer people than now, once they have more data to work out who actually needs it.
The problem is that the media and some experts are talking in terms of everyone getting a third jab & how not enough people are getting it. And we know how easily politicians can fold under pressure for them. Its already happened in Israel, and Austria seems to be moving it's travel requirements towards having more boosters. Its really not a massive step to imagine the situation where a third / fourth / fifth booster becomes the next "key to freedom".

And all of this is under the backdrop of the WHO pleading with industrialised nations to concentrate on getting vaccines to poorer countries instead of focusing on third jabs. It does feel sometimes like politicians are getting addicted to pandemics.
 

greyman42

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This whole current media frenzy has been brought on by people who have refused the vaccine.
 

DustyBin

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The problem is that the media and some experts are talking in terms of everyone getting a third jab & how not enough people are getting it. And we know how easily politicians can fold under pressure for them. Its already happened in Israel, and Austria seems to be moving it's travel requirements towards having more boosters. Its really not a massive step to imagine the situation where a third / fourth / fifth booster becomes the next "key to freedom".

And all of this is under the backdrop of the WHO pleading with industrialised nations to concentrate on getting vaccines to poorer countries instead of focusing on third jabs. It does feel sometimes like politicians are getting addicted to pandemics.

As you say it’s happening elsewhere so it’s not a stretch to imagine it happening here. Our pandemic response has been the embodiment of mission creep and shifting goalposts so why stop now?
 

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